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Old 04-26-2018, 07:52 PM   #1
d10
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A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

The other Senate thread was started by a terrible poster and the WOAT low content OP that somehow was allowed to survive past a full page. With one primary already in the books and several more scheduled next month, it's time for a closer look at the upcoming elections for US Senate. It's the more important chamber for Democrats to win, but also more difficult considering the seats that are up for election this year. I'll break down each race in order of reverse-sweat-worthiness.

General notes: There are currently 35 seats up for grabs in this year's election. That includes the 33 regularly scheduled elections for full 6 year terms, and 2 special elections to fill Al Franken's old seat in Minnesota (resigned following sexual harassment allegations) and Thad Cochran's old seat in Mississippi (retired a few weeks ago due to health issues).

There is of course another Senator with well known health issues who has NOT retired, but also hasn't been healthy enough to serve in DC yet this year. John McCain underwent surgery for glioblastoma last year, an aggressive brain cancer with a poor prognosis. He's also currently hospitalized following an intestinal infection. If he holds out past May 30, the governor will appoint a Republican to take his seat until the 2020 election. If, for whatever reason, his seat becomes vacant prior to that date, there will be a 36th seat up for grabs in November in a state that Democrats have a good shot at flipping.

Assuming 35 seats: 26 are currently held by Democrats (or Senators who primarily vote with Democrats), 9 by Republicans. Senate seats not up for reelection are held by 23 Democrats and 42 Republicans.

On to the races:

#35: The least sweat worthy election this year is in the state of Vermont. The incumbent faces no significant challengers. Although running as an independent, he's the unofficial leader of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and can be relied upon to vote with Democrats when they're not being terrible.

Spoiler:


#34: On the other side of the aisle, the incumbent Senator in Wyoming is also a lock for reelection.



John Barasso holds all the typical Republican positions you would expect on health care, guns, abortion, climate change, and "religious freedom" as far as it promotes Christian family values. He's of the establishment-type variety of deplorables, which prompted a possible run by Erik Prince (of Blackwater and secret Seychelles meeting fame) to unseat him, but so far nothing has come of that. It's probably safe to say Mr. Prince is more likely to see federal prison than the Senate floor at this point.

#33: Amy Klobuchar is unlikely to face any significant challengers in Minnesota.



She will most likely be up against Jim Newberger, a current Republican member of the state House of Representatives, but he's not a serious threat. The vote will end up 60-something/30-something like it has in Klobuchar's previous elections to the Senate. Klobuchar is of course known as a potential Presidential candidate in 2020. You may also recognize her from the CNN debate where she paired up with Bernie Sanders to represent the Democrat's position on health care reform. She puts in a lot of real work in the Senate and her positions range from center-left to true progressive.

#32: Kirsten Gillibrand in New York won't crush quite as hard as Klobuchar, but the final outcome is just as much of a lock.



She's been pretty progressive recently, but she's the ex-Philip Morris lawyer with a history of being way more centrist than she needs to be to win in New York.

#31: Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a leader of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and is unlikely to lose her seat this year.



She defeated the incumbent Republican Senator 6 years ago, so it's not like Massachusetts can't go red. Her stock has gone up since then and the current field of Republicans aren't as strong though, so that shouldn't be happening this year. The eventual Republican nominee will also likely lose some votes to Shiva Ayyadurai, a freak and a very weird dude who claims to have invented email and insists on running as an Independent.

#30: Orrin Hatch is retiring which leaves no incumbent advantage in the Utah race. That being said, this race is not in doubt. "Tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow."

Spoiler:


#29: Sheldon Whitehouse is running unopposed in the Rhode Island Democratic primary, and the Republican nominees aren't a serious threat.



He's one of the more progressive Democratic Senators with a pretty consistent voting record.

#28: Mazie Hirono is the incumbent running in Hawaii, unopposed in the Democratic primary, and will be practically unopposed in the general election (Someone is on the ballot for Republicans but I can't find any information about him).



She's a kidney cancer survivor who helped shut down the ACA repeal last year shortly after surgery.

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Old 04-26-2018, 08:07 PM   #2
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Might have to reconsider #30. Sounds like Rmoney's walk in the park is getting a little shaky. He took second at convention and now has to go through a primary.

An R will still win ldo
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:07 PM   #3
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

I became cool with the other thread, but the amount of work and info in this thread is great, respect man.

People who have volunteered before, how do you go about it? Do you just contact the person you want to volunteer for campaign?
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:09 PM   #4
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

solid OP

now vamoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo dems
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:11 PM   #5
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by StimAbuser View Post
I became cool with the other thread, but the amount of work and info in this thread is great, respect man.

People who have volunteered before, how do you go about it? Do you just contact the person you want to volunteer for campaign?
Or your local party machinery. There's contact info on all the sites for volunteers.
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:19 PM   #6
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki View Post
Might have to reconsider #30. Sounds like Rmoney's walk in the park is getting a little shaky. He took second at convention and now has to go through a primary.
Nah, he took second in the convention for the dumbest reason which is that party insiders felt snubbed by his decision to gather signatures to appear on the ballot, rather than relying purely on them to nominate him. He is still enormously popular among voters in the state.
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:24 PM   #7
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Thanks for an awesome OP d10
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Old 04-26-2018, 08:48 PM   #8
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

I see you.
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Old 04-26-2018, 09:02 PM   #9
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki View Post
Might have to reconsider #30. Sounds like Rmoney's walk in the park is getting a little shaky. He took second at convention and now has to go through a primary.

An R will still win ldo
I started putting this together before the convention and the vote there caught me by surprise. I considered rewriting the Utah bit but it sounds like Romney is still considered a lock in the primary so I left it alone.
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Old 04-26-2018, 09:05 PM   #10
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Epic OP, great work.
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Old 04-26-2018, 09:44 PM   #11
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Yeah, this is an excellent OP.
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Old 04-26-2018, 09:53 PM   #12
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Fantastic op
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Old 04-26-2018, 10:12 PM   #13
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

A+ OP.

Though I definitely would have put Heller at #1. And I think McCaskill is more in danger than Heitkamp.
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Old 04-26-2018, 10:28 PM   #14
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Bredesen wins.
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Old 04-26-2018, 10:39 PM   #15
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Great job op.

I will vote for Amy in Minnesota, but holy cow is she the epitome of Minnesota milquetoast. It's pretty wild how hard she runs up the vote - Minnesota isn't as liberal as you think. Outside of Duluth and the Twin Cities it's just like other rural midwest areas, but she cleans clock which requires Republican voter support. Very odd in this political climate that she has such wide appeal.

Screw Gillebrand. She railroaded one of the most aggressive and trustworthy politicians in the Senate. Her history is disgusting so it makes me want to puke when I see all these people on Twitter coalesce around her like she's a lock on 2020.

Is Texas really that hard for Beto to flip? Cruz is reviled, even by Republicans. Alas, everyone hates Mitch McConnell, but that little **** survives. Seems so odd that no one in Texas knows who Beto is, yet I live in Minnesota and I'm well aware. I forget sometimes that we're probably in the top 5-10% of people knowledgeable on politics/current events. People really do go home and shut their brain off.

Last edited by aarono2690; 04-26-2018 at 10:47 PM.
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Old 04-27-2018, 12:05 AM   #16
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aarono2690 View Post
Great job op.

I will vote for Amy in Minnesota, but holy cow is she the epitome of Minnesota milquetoast. It's pretty wild how hard she runs up the vote - Minnesota isn't as liberal as you think. Outside of Duluth and the Twin Cities it's just like other rural midwest areas, but she cleans clock which requires Republican voter support. Very odd in this political climate that she has such wide appeal.

Screw Gillebrand. She railroaded one of the most aggressive and trustworthy politicians in the Senate. Her history is disgusting so it makes me want to puke when I see all these people on Twitter coalesce around her like she's a lock on 2020.

Is Texas really that hard for Beto to flip? Cruz is reviled, even by Republicans. Alas, everyone hates Mitch McConnell, but that little **** survives. Seems so odd that no one in Texas knows who Beto is, yet I live in Minnesota and I'm well aware. I forget sometimes that we're probably in the top 5-10% of people knowledgeable on politics/current events. People really do go home and shut their brain off.
On the topic of Texas, Beto's odds, and voters shutting their brains off: Texas is one of the few states that allow straight ticket voting. Like it's an option you can select instead of running through individual candidates. Typically that's been a benefit for Democrats, especially in locking up down ballot positions in cities (but also it's just used more often to vote all D than R, don't know why but those are the stats). However it will clearly be an advantage for Cruz in 2018. Governor Abbott is popular and he's on the ballot for reelection this year. I don't think it's a stretch to conclude he'll pull in more thoughtless straight ticket votes for Cruz than Cruz would get on his own based on otherwise Democratic voters seeing his name and thinking "oh yeah I like that guy." So when evaluating Beto's odds you should be aware that for 2/3 voters it's not even a question of Beto vs Cruz but R vs D. Still obviously in play though.

Agree in principle with your thoughts on Klobuchar and Gillibrand.
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Old 04-27-2018, 12:14 AM   #17
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Nice OP.

I just thought of something. Remember the R's bitching the only reason Obama won in 2012 was because of Hurricane Sandy? Gasp! How dare a POTUS do the right thing and care about citizens?!

Anyways. It would be funny if a similar situation happens this year and there's an extra boost to the blue wave because Trump couldn't give 2 ****s about some random hurricane hitting a random area.
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Old 04-27-2018, 02:04 AM   #18
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by d10 View Post
On the topic of Texas, Beto's odds, and voters shutting their brains off: Texas is one of the few states that allow straight ticket voting. Like it's an option you can select instead of running through individual candidates. Typically that's been a benefit for Democrats, especially in locking up down ballot positions in cities (but also it's just used more often to vote all D than R, don't know why but those are the stats). However it will clearly be an advantage for Cruz in 2018. Governor Abbott is popular and he's on the ballot for reelection this year. I don't think it's a stretch to conclude he'll pull in more thoughtless straight ticket votes for Cruz than Cruz would get on his own based on otherwise Democratic voters seeing his name and thinking "oh yeah I like that guy." So when evaluating Beto's odds you should be aware that for 2/3 voters it's not even a question of Beto vs Cruz but R vs D. Still obviously in play though.

Agree in principle with your thoughts on Klobuchar and Gillibrand.
I see. I was aware of straight ticket voting, but didn't realize how big of a factor it can play. Makes sense - one strong top ticket contender can strengthen down ballot party peers.
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Old 04-27-2018, 07:03 AM   #19
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Very good OP. We need more OPs like this, but I never make them, so I can't really complain.

So, I was also posting house and special election stuff in the other thread. I assume I'll keep doing that here unless someone makes another good thread.
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Old 04-27-2018, 09:19 AM   #20
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Now that's what I call an OP.
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Old 04-27-2018, 09:26 AM   #21
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

So assuming the locks are locks, what's really in play for the Senate. My baseline assumption is still that 50-50 would be a major, and likely improbable, victory.
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Old 04-27-2018, 10:03 AM   #22
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Blackburn confirmed terrible, Corker all but explicitly endorsed bredesen on the sunday shows this week. She's absolutely a swamp monster, and probably sub-90 IQ.

in off-topic but related news, in the TN governor race, Diane Black is taking a slightly different tack, going HAM with BUILD THE WALL and NO SANCTUARY CITIES ads 24/7 here.
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Old 04-27-2018, 01:16 PM   #23
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

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So assuming the locks are locks, what's really in play for the Senate. My baseline assumption is still that 50-50 would be a major, and likely improbable, victory.
Depends how you define lock. If you count everyone above sweaty Jordan Peele the baseline is 47-41 R-D. Some of those are just strong favorites though (MN special for example). The rest are barely above 50-50 if that for Democrats. So yeah I'd say 50-50 is a decent win, although disappointing.

The thing I started to realize looking into the more sweat worthy races is you can't just assume winning in 2012 + blue wave makes a Democrat seat safe. There may be some correlation across states if the support we've been seeing for Democrats holds but each state has individual factors in play, some incumbents and challengers are stronger than others, some are judged more as individuals than their party affiliation which may be an advantage or disadvantage. Anywhere between 48-51 seats for Democrats is a reasonable guess.
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Old 04-29-2018, 07:54 PM   #24
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Republican Senate Candidate, Who Has Called for Country 'Free From Jews,’ Could be Dianne Feinstein’s Challenger
The man in question is Patrick Little, an extremist with hardline anti-Semitic views who is backed by David Duke and other far-right extremists. Little will be squaring off in a top-two primary with 10 other Republicans as well as Democrats and independents on June 5 for the chance to oppose veteran Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein. According to a recent poll, released last week, he very much has a chance of winning the right to face off with the incumbent.

A poll conducted by local ABC News affiliates along with the polling company Survey USA, suggested that Little is polling at 18 percent of the vote on the Republican ticket, a full 10 points ahead of his next strongest opponent.

...

“I propose a government that makes counter-semitism central to all aims of the state,” he wrote on that website, referring to a white nationalist euphemism for a hatred of Jews. He argued for forbidding “all immigration except of biological kin, where no person of Jewish origin may live, vacation or traverse.”
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Old 04-29-2018, 09:52 PM   #25
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Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

At least in northern Nevada, Heller has been a lot more visible than Rosen - he's doing a pretty good job of getting a lot of free face time on TV doing Senator stuff. Not a lot of ads for either yet. AFAIK he's pretty useless, and spent a lot of time kissing Trumps ass and pretty much got insulted in return. The Nevada GOP, from what I can tell, is pretty resigned to a really dreadful showing, although they're pretty optimistic about Amodei keeping his house seat.

Might be closer than you'd think, though with Heller. Maybe the Rosen campaign will start rolling in the near future, or maybe they're just going to REALLY hit Clark county hard, with the thought that if they win big enough there it will carry them. We'll see.

MM MD
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