The other Senate thread was started by a terrible poster and the WOAT low content OP that somehow was allowed to survive past a full page. With one primary already in the books and several more scheduled next month, it's time for a closer look at the upcoming elections for US Senate. It's the more important chamber for Democrats to win, but also more difficult considering the seats that are up for election this year. I'll break down each race in order of reverse-sweat-worthiness.

General notes: There are currently 35 seats up for grabs in this year's election. That includes the 33 regularly scheduled elections for full 6 year terms, and 2 special elections to fill Al Franken's old seat in Minnesota (resigned following sexual harassment allegations) and Thad Cochran's old seat in Mississippi (retired a few weeks ago due to health issues).

There is of course another Senator with well known health issues who has NOT retired, but also hasn't been healthy enough to serve in DC yet this year. John McCain underwent surgery for glioblastoma last year, an aggressive brain cancer with a poor prognosis. He's also currently hospitalized following an intestinal infection. If he holds out past May 30, the governor will appoint a Republican to take his seat until the 2020 election. If, for whatever reason, his seat becomes vacant prior to that date, there will be a 36th seat up for grabs in November in a state that Democrats have a good shot at flipping.

Assuming 35 seats: 26 are currently held by Democrats (or Senators who primarily vote with Democrats), 9 by Republicans. Senate seats not up for reelection are held by 23 Democrats and 42 Republicans.

On to the races:

#35: The least sweat worthy election this year is in the state of Vermont. The incumbent faces no significant challengers. Although running as an independent, he's the unofficial leader of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and can be relied upon to vote with Democrats when they're not being terrible.



#34: On the other side of the aisle, the incumbent Senator in Wyoming is also a lock for reelection.



John Barasso holds all the typical Republican positions you would expect on health care, guns, abortion, climate change, and "religious freedom" as far as it promotes Christian family values. He's of the establishment-type variety of deplorables, which prompted a possible run by Erik Prince (of Blackwater and secret Seychelles meeting fame) to unseat him, but so far nothing has come of that. It's probably safe to say Mr. Prince is more likely to see federal prison than the Senate floor at this point.

#33: Amy Klobuchar is unlikely to face any significant challengers in Minnesota.



She will most likely be up against Jim Newberger, a current Republican member of the state House of Representatives, but he's not a serious threat. The vote will end up 60-something/30-something like it has in Klobuchar's previous elections to the Senate. Klobuchar is of course known as a potential Presidential candidate in 2020. You may also recognize her from the CNN debate where she paired up with Bernie Sanders to represent the Democrat's position on health care reform. She puts in a lot of real work in the Senate and her positions range from center-left to true progressive.

#32: Kirsten Gillibrand in New York won't crush quite as hard as Klobuchar, but the final outcome is just as much of a lock.



She's been pretty progressive recently, but she's the ex-Philip Morris lawyer with a history of being way more centrist than she needs to be to win in New York.

#31: Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a leader of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and is unlikely to lose her seat this year.



She defeated the incumbent Republican Senator 6 years ago, so it's not like Massachusetts can't go red. Her stock has gone up since then and the current field of Republicans aren't as strong though, so that shouldn't be happening this year. The eventual Republican nominee will also likely lose some votes to Shiva Ayyadurai, a freak and a very weird dude who claims to have invented email and insists on running as an Independent.

#30: Orrin Hatch is retiring which leaves no incumbent advantage in the Utah race. That being said, this race is not in doubt. "Tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow."



#29: Sheldon Whitehouse is running unopposed in the Rhode Island Democratic primary, and the Republican nominees aren't a serious threat.



He's one of the more progressive Democratic Senators with a pretty consistent voting record.

#28: Mazie Hirono is the incumbent running in Hawaii, unopposed in the Democratic primary, and will be practically unopposed in the general election (Someone is on the ballot for Republicans but I can't find any information about him).



She's a kidney cancer survivor who helped shut down the ACA repeal last year shortly after surgery.



#27: Roger Wicker is running for reelection in Mississippi vs only token resistance (many candidates are filing for Thad Cochran's special election seat instead).



He's an oil & gas stooge and has an A+ rating from the NRA.

#26: Tom Carper is running for reelection in Delaware with little opposition.



He's about as exciting as his home state. He votes with Democrats on most issues but often sides with Republicans. Such bipartisanship.

#25: Maria Cantwell is also running for reelection with little opposition in Washington.



She's consistently pro-choice and fights for good environmental policies. Her Republican challenger is an alt-right guy who insists he's not alt-right (it's not his fault his events happen to be magnets for neo-nazis).

#24: Despite running in a purple state that Trump won, Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) is pretty secure in her seat.



There were a lot of big Republican names floated to challenge her but nobody's really stepped up. The Republican front runner is a former Army helicopter pilot who's shoving his service down the throats of his Facebook followers. It's nauseating and I disavow him completely.

#23: Chris Murphy is running for reelection in Connecticut with no significant challengers.



The day he took Joe Lieberman's seat 6 years ago was a good day. He's a young guy and votes for the kinds of policies that you would want a Democrat voting for.

#22: Don't be fooled by Ben Cardin's ranking this far down. He's never lost an election and he's been doing this a long time. He's a lock to continue that streak in Maryland. So why is he #22?



The primary will be more sweat-worthy than the general election, as he's facing Chelsea Manning for the Democratic nomination. Manning won't win, but she'll pick up some votes and endorsements. Ben Cardin is a good Senator though, especially for an old dude.

#21: The blue wave would need to hit pretty hard to unseat Deb Fischer in Nebraska.



She holds all the standard Republican positions. The leading Democratic challenger, Jane Raybould, will put up a fight as a strong center-right candidate, but not enough to win.

#20: At almost 85 years old you'd think maybe Dianne Feinstein would want to retire, but she wants another term.



She's the face of the Democratic establishment. California has an open primary which means the top 2 vote getters face off in November regardless of party. The current #2 guy is Kevin de Leon, a progressive Democrat.



That makes this a good race to test the strength of the progressive movement within the Democratic party. No concerns about choosing a guy in the primary who may or may not win a general election because it will be the general election where the voters choose between the two. The sweat in this race comes down to those two, there aren't any Republican candidates who have a chance.

It's starting to heat up, but no reason to sweat yet.



#19: Next race up is in Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly won this state, but so did Conor Lamb in a pretty solid red district.



The incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr, is a moderate Democrat on most issues, but has some taken some pretty extreme pro-life stances. He was at one point basically a Republican on gun control but he's come around on that. The Republican challenger will likely be US Congressman Lou Barletta, a Trumpkin who runs on anti-immigration as a major issue. They'll both get some significant vote totals but Casey will come out on top.

#18: Angus King owns the Senate seat in Maine.



He's an Independent who's clearly more left leaning but occasionally sides with Republicans. He can bring the fire during committee hearings, he's put together a good highlight reel. His competition is progressive Democrat Zak Ringelstein, and Republican Eric Brakey, a libertarian type who wants to abolish the IRS.

#17: The special election to fill Thad Cochran's old seat will be slightly more competitive than the regular Mississippi election. There is some added sweat in this election because there will be no real primary. All interested candidates will be on the ballot on election day. If anyone gets >50% of the vote, they'll win the seat. As it stands right now that looks unlikely. Then the top 2 vote getters will run against each other again on Nov 27. The candidates involved:

• Democrat Mike Espy: He hasn't been in politics since the '90s. His political career ended after standing trial for receiving bribes, although he was acquitted of all charges. He's been supportive of Thad Cochran. He probably won't be a great Senator for Democrats, but it's Mississippi, and he's polling decently.
  
• Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith: She was appointed as the interim Senator. She's the establishment choice and the current favorite to keep the seat.
  
• Republican Chris McDaniel: He ran for this seat against Thad Cochran in 2014. It was a super dirty and deplorable race. He's Bannon's choice, an alt-right garbage human.
  

Mike Espy will certainly be in the top 2 with the Republicans splitting votes on election day (it's unlikely either Republican candidate concedes before then). He probably loses to Hyde-Smith. He probably also loses to McDaniel but it will be closer, and if Doug Jones can win against a deplorable one state away, this could end up similarly close.

#16: Former VP candidate Tim Kaine is up for reelction in Virginia.



You might remember him from his over-agressive and awkward VP debate vs Mike Pence back when he believed facts had political value. An uninspiring choice for sure, but he's the only Democrat running in Virginia. The Republican challenger will be selected by the voters in June out of a nasty 3 way race: Nick Freitas, current VA House Delegate and former Army guy. He's a libertarian gun nut. Corey Stewart, coming off of a failed campaign for governor. He models himself entirely after Trump. Finally EW Jackson, a pastor who claims he will respect the separation of church and state but campaigns using a lot of religious talk. Considering how thoroughly the Democrats cleaned up in 2017 statewide elections, it's unlikely Kaine loses his seat to anyone running with an (R) next to their name.

#15: If you were wondering "What ever happened to that Democratic Senator facing corruption charges in New Jersey?" the answer is he's still a Senator and running for reelection.



Bob Menendez is being challenged by a progressive candidate, Lisa McCormick, but the entire establishment has thrown their support behind Menendez despite his poor approval ratings and obvious red flags. McCormick is barely running a campaign so expect Menendez to hold on to the Democratic nomination. The Republican challenger is likely to be Bob Hugin, a pharma CEO.

#14: Martin Heinrich is an odd variety of Democrat in New Mexico with a strong record on the environment and progressive economic policies but not so strong on gun control and late to come around on gay marriage.



He's running unopposed in the Democratic primary and he'll be facing both a Republican and a Libertarian in the general election so his seat should be safe.

#13: The special election to fill Al Franken's old seat in Minnesota will be more competitive than Klobuchar's election. Tina Smith was appointed as Franken's replacement less than a year ago but she previously served as Minnesota's Lieutenant Governor, so she has some name recognition in the state. This race is already being framed as a pro-life candidate (Republican Karen Housley) vs the former Planned Parenthood VP Smith. It's Minnesota, so Smith should win, but it will be a competitive race.


(Tina Smith)


(Karen Housley)

And now let the sweat begin...



#12: Tammy Baldwin is facing a tough election for her seat in Wisconsin.



She's one of the most liberal Senators, which would probably play better in another state. She's also probably facing Kevin Nicholson, a young charismatic veteran who checks every box for Republican electability.



#11: Sherrod Brown is also facing a tough reelection in Ohio, because of course he is, he's a Democrat in Ohio.



He doesn't have the same respect for awval's friends back on the farm than the Republican challenger and current US House Representative Jim Renacci.



Senator Brown is another progressive Democrat trying to win in a purple state.

#10: Joe Manchin is somehow still polling ahead of his Republican challengers, although not by much. His possible opposition includes Evan Jenkins, the establishment candidate; Patrick Morrisey, the West Virginia Attorney General who has spent his career suing the EPA and other branches of the federal government; and Don Blankenship, a coal executive who believes in capitalism on crack and has a felony conviction for ignoring federal mining regulations to prove it. The primary is a couple weeks away which should provide some clarity in this race.


(Morrisey, Manchin, Jenkins)

#9: Joe Donnelly is attempting to hang on to his seat in Indiana. He's only about half Democrat but that's better than nothing.



The Republican primary is a mess with 3 candidates fighting hard for the nomination. They're all trying to paint themselves as most loyal to Trump. Indiana is low-key one of the most deplorable states in the country so I guess that plays well there.

#8: Continuing the list of Democrats in red states and the Republicans who are in a frenzy to unseat them is Jon Tester in Montana.



Tester is not as bad as Donnelly or Manchin, which is to say he's about the best you can hope for from Montana. The mainstream Republican candidate is Matt Rosendale.



The candidates labeling themselves as outsiders are Russell Fagg, a local judge, and Troy Downing, a businessman hoping to turn politician.

#7: Let's get away from sweating possible Democrat losses to possible gains. The race in Arizona should be competitive with the incumbent Jeff Flake retiring. On the Democrats side is Deedra Abboud, an attorney representing progressive causes, and Kyrsten Sinema, the establishment centrist candidate. She's openly bisexual and atheist but sides with Republicans on business issues. She's crushing fundraising and endorsements so she's a near lock for the Democratic nomination.



On the Republican side is Martha McSally, current Representative in the US House, standard war hawk type Republican.



The deplorable wing is led by Kelli Ward, who previously attempted to primary McCain for not being deplorable enough, and immediately called for his resignation following his cancer diagnosis. She could split votes with the other deplorable popular in Arizona though, disgraced former Sheriff Arpaio. Expect Sinema and McSally to face off in a close race following the late primary in August.

#6: I went on record in 2017 to say the race in Tennessee would be sweat-worthy. The primaries are relatively uncontested, so you can expect this to be between Republican US Representative Marsha Blackburn, an absolutely shameless corporate grifter, and Democrat Phil Bredesen. It cannot be overstated how much hate Blackburn draws throughout most of the state. It's a rare case where even Republican voters realizes she's sold out to corporate interests and gives zero ****s about her constituents.



Bredesen on the other hand is about as popular as a Democrat will ever be in Tennessee. He'll clean up the major cities obviously but you can also expect the eastern half of the state to turn purple at worst.



I've followed this race closer than most as I've spent a lot of my adult life in the state (my 2p2 avatar for the last 10+ years is in Nashville). Also before Bredesen entered the race the leading Democratic candidate was a Black Hawk pilot. If elected that would have made 2 sitting Black Hawk pilot Senators, which I believe would have pushed that occupation above lawyer in "top jobs most likely to lead to a Senate seat."

#5: Back to Democratic seats in danger: Bill Nelson is the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida, and he'll be facing current governor Rick Scott. Scott has terrible approval ratings as governor but he's going to make it an expensive race and you know Florida Republicans will vote for him anyway. This race is currently polling as a toss up.


(Bill Nelson)


(Rick Scott)

#4: Another toss up race is Claire McCaskill defending her seat in Missouri.



She first needs to get through a primary challenge from progressive candidate Angelica Earl. Not much info out there about her other than she's running on a stronger health care platform, so McCaskill should come out on top there. Missouri is obviously a deeply red state but there are some interesting dynamics at play with the Republican governor a national embarrassment and the likely Republican candidate Josh Hawley acting as current Missouri Attorney General.



That's obviously a tough spot to be in politically. This race is polling about 50-50 but there's so much potential volatility in both directions it's more interesting than the usual toss up.

#3: Texas held their primary last month so this race is already set. Incumbent Ted Cruz is facing Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke.



Recent history has shown that Texas is still a solid red state, but everyone hates Ted Cruz, and O'Rourke is the type of young, progressive politician that can drive voters to show up. O'Rourke is struggling with name recognition but he's been surging ever since the primary and racking up a ton of donations despite refusing Super PAC money. This is another current toss up race where the odds could change significantly by election day.

Beyond sweat, into the likely to flip races:

#2: The Nevada seat is currently held by Republican Dean Heller.



The Democratic challenger is Jacky Rosen, a current Representative to the US House. Rosen is not a well known candidate, and I couldn't find much on her other than her campaign website where she promises to uphold all of the standard Democrat positions.



Still, Trump couldn't win Nevada in 2016, and it seems unlikely that any Republican could hold on to a seat this year.

#1: Flipping the other way is likely to be North Dakota's seat, currently held by Democrat Heidi Heitkamp.



She narrowly won her first race in 2012 and North Dakota is a much different state today than it was then. Trump won more than 2x as many votes as Clinton in North Dakota in 2016, and the Republican challenger Kevin Cramer is running on a Trump platform.



The blue wave won't be enough to save Heitkamp.

Summary of key dates to look forward to:

May 8: Primaries in Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana. The Democratic primaries are largely uncontested, but the Republican primaries in all 3 races are among the most contested in the country.

May 15: Primaries in Nebraska, Pennsylvania. Both races are essentially already set though.

June 5: Mississippi, California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana. Montana Republican primary is slightly sweat worthy, the others not so much.

June 12: Maine, Virginia, Nevada, North Dakota. Virginia Republicans are the ones to watch here.

June 26: New York, Utah, Maryland. Nothing exciting here unless RMoney gets upstaged again or if you want to see if Chelsea Manning can crack a few percent.

Aug 2: Tennessee. The candidates are already a lock.

Aug 7: Washington, Michigan, Missouri. There may be some sweat here but the candidates are mostly assured in all of these races.

Aug 11: Hawaii. Least competitive primary in the country.

Aug 14: Vermont, Minnesota (both elections), Connecticut, Wisconsin. Nothing to see here.

Aug 21: Wyoming. Not a competitive race.

Aug 28: Arizona, Florida. We know who's running in Florida. Arizona Republican nomination is up for grabs.

Sep 4: Massachusetts. Not competitive.

Sep 6: Connecticut. Not competitive.

Sep 12: Rhode Island. Not competitive.

Nov 6: ELECTION DAY. May be some races to sweat.

Nov 27: Likely runoff in Mississippi special election.

PREDICTIONS:
Democrats win in Vermont, New York, Minnesota (both races), Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Delaware, Washington, Michigan, Connecticut, Maryland, California, Pennsylvania, Maine, Virginia, New Jersey, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, Arizona, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, and Nevada.

Republicans win in Wyoming, Utah, Mississippi (both races), Nebraska, Indiana, Texas, North Dakota.

Senate ends up deadlocked 50-50.

Might have to reconsider #30. Sounds like Rmoney's walk in the park is getting a little shaky. He took second at convention and now has to go through a primary.

An R will still win ldo

I became cool with the other thread, but the amount of work and info in this thread is great, respect man.

People who have volunteered before, how do you go about it? Do you just contact the person you want to volunteer for campaign?

solid OP

now vamoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo dems

Or your local party machinery. There's contact info on all the sites for volunteers.

Nah, he took second in the convention for the dumbest reason which is that party insiders felt snubbed by his decision to gather signatures to appear on the ballot, rather than relying purely on them to nominate him. He is still enormously popular among voters in the state.

Thanks for an awesome OP d10

I see you.

I started putting this together before the convention and the vote there caught me by surprise. I considered rewriting the Utah bit but it sounds like Romney is still considered a lock in the primary so I left it alone.

Epic OP, great work.

Yeah, this is an excellent OP.

Fantastic op

A+ OP.

Though I definitely would have put Heller at #1. And I think McCaskill is more in danger than Heitkamp.

Bredesen wins.

Great job op.

I will vote for Amy in Minnesota, but holy cow is she the epitome of Minnesota milquetoast. It's pretty wild how hard she runs up the vote - Minnesota isn't as liberal as you think. Outside of Duluth and the Twin Cities it's just like other rural midwest areas, but she cleans clock which requires Republican voter support. Very odd in this political climate that she has such wide appeal.

Screw Gillebrand. She railroaded one of the most aggressive and trustworthy politicians in the Senate. Her history is disgusting so it makes me want to puke when I see all these people on Twitter coalesce around her like she's a lock on 2020.

Is Texas really that hard for Beto to flip? Cruz is reviled, even by Republicans. Alas, everyone hates Mitch McConnell, but that little **** survives. Seems so odd that no one in Texas knows who Beto is, yet I live in Minnesota and I'm well aware. I forget sometimes that we're probably in the top 5-10% of people knowledgeable on politics/current events. People really do go home and shut their brain off.

On the topic of Texas, Beto's odds, and voters shutting their brains off: Texas is one of the few states that allow straight ticket voting. Like it's an option you can select instead of running through individual candidates. Typically that's been a benefit for Democrats, especially in locking up down ballot positions in cities (but also it's just used more often to vote all D than R, don't know why but those are the stats). However it will clearly be an advantage for Cruz in 2018. Governor Abbott is popular and he's on the ballot for reelection this year. I don't think it's a stretch to conclude he'll pull in more thoughtless straight ticket votes for Cruz than Cruz would get on his own based on otherwise Democratic voters seeing his name and thinking "oh yeah I like that guy." So when evaluating Beto's odds you should be aware that for 2/3 voters it's not even a question of Beto vs Cruz but R vs D. Still obviously in play though.

Agree in principle with your thoughts on Klobuchar and Gillibrand.

Nice OP.

I just thought of something. Remember the R's bitching the only reason Obama won in 2012 was because of Hurricane Sandy? Gasp! How dare a POTUS do the right thing and care about citizens?!

Anyways. It would be funny if a similar situation happens this year and there's an extra boost to the blue wave because Trump couldn't give 2 ****s about some random hurricane hitting a random area.

I see. I was aware of straight ticket voting, but didn't realize how big of a factor it can play. Makes sense - one strong top ticket contender can strengthen down ballot party peers.

Very good OP. We need more OPs like this, but I never make them, so I can't really complain.

So, I was also posting house and special election stuff in the other thread. I assume I'll keep doing that here unless someone makes another good thread.

Now that's what I call an OP.

So assuming the locks are locks, what's really in play for the Senate. My baseline assumption is still that 50-50 would be a major, and likely improbable, victory.

Blackburn confirmed terrible, Corker all but explicitly endorsed bredesen on the sunday shows this week. She's absolutely a swamp monster, and probably sub-90 IQ.

in off-topic but related news, in the TN governor race, Diane Black is taking a slightly different tack, going HAM with BUILD THE WALL and NO SANCTUARY CITIES ads 24/7 here.

Depends how you define lock. If you count everyone above sweaty Jordan Peele the baseline is 47-41 R-D. Some of those are just strong favorites though (MN special for example). The rest are barely above 50-50 if that for Democrats. So yeah I'd say 50-50 is a decent win, although disappointing.

The thing I started to realize looking into the more sweat worthy races is you can't just assume winning in 2012 + blue wave makes a Democrat seat safe. There may be some correlation across states if the support we've been seeing for Democrats holds but each state has individual factors in play, some incumbents and challengers are stronger than others, some are judged more as individuals than their party affiliation which may be an advantage or disadvantage. Anywhere between 48-51 seats for Democrats is a reasonable guess.

Republican Senate Candidate, Who Has Called for Country 'Free From Jews,’ Could be Dianne Feinstein’s Challenger

The man in question is Patrick Little, an extremist with hardline anti-Semitic views who is backed by David Duke and other far-right extremists. Little will be squaring off in a top-two primary with 10 other Republicans as well as Democrats and independents on June 5 for the chance to oppose veteran Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein. According to a recent poll, released last week, he very much has a chance of winning the right to face off with the incumbent.

A poll conducted by local ABC News affiliates along with the polling company Survey USA, suggested that Little is polling at 18 percent of the vote on the Republican ticket, a full 10 points ahead of his next strongest opponent.

...

“I propose a government that makes counter-semitism central to all aims of the state,” he wrote on that website, referring to a white nationalist euphemism for a hatred of Jews. He argued for forbidding “all immigration except of biological kin, where no person of Jewish origin may live, vacation or traverse.”

At least in northern Nevada, Heller has been a lot more visible than Rosen - he's doing a pretty good job of getting a lot of free face time on TV doing Senator stuff. Not a lot of ads for either yet. AFAIK he's pretty useless, and spent a lot of time kissing Trumps ass and pretty much got insulted in return. The Nevada GOP, from what I can tell, is pretty resigned to a really dreadful showing, although they're pretty optimistic about Amodei keeping his house seat.

Might be closer than you'd think, though with Heller. Maybe the Rosen campaign will start rolling in the near future, or maybe they're just going to REALLY hit Clark county hard, with the thought that if they win big enough there it will carry them. We'll see.

MM MD