The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. - Page 949 - Politics and Economics

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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

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04-02-2017 , 10:26 PM

#23701

simplicitus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 10,841

Most of these 5th graders are literally smarter than Trump (definitely worth a 5 min watch).

https://twitter.com/MarkHalperin/sta...03297884180480

04-02-2017 , 10:51 PM

#23702

Huehuecoyotl

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,313

Democrats are no longer "going high when they go low"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.e547aa891f42

04-02-2017 , 11:07 PM

#23703

Klingbard

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,103

Re: Gorsuch.

Other head counters might have slightly different #s, but @decisiondeskhq right now have the cloture vote count at:

55 for (Rs + Manchin, Heidtkamp, and Donnelly)

40 against

5 undecided (Bennet (CO), Coons (DE), King (ME), Leahy (VT), Warner (VA))

Leahy against Gorsuch but also has been public against filibustering.

04-02-2017 , 11:30 PM

#23704

tomrh3

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,328

Well thought out post on reddit regarding the Democrat's GTO line (written 2 months ago):

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/co...ss_he/dc7sth4/

Quote:

Originally Posted by The-Autarkh

I actually share this sentiment. But not fighting now will only encourage further norm erosion and will reward McConnell's bad faith if-you're-for-it-I'm-against-it obstruction strategy. This can't be allowed for systemic reasons--not just the partisan Democratic goals.

But, for now, Democratic strategy to opposing Trump basically has to be political tit-for-tat--an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for iterated prisoners' dilemmas (IPD) (i.e., where you aren't in a one-off prisoner's dilemma, but multiple successive ones, which you don't know when are going to end, and where the other player is able to observe what you did on the previous turn before deciding what to do this turn).

This summary of Robert's Axelrod's famous IPD tournament, the subject of his seminal Evolution of Cooperation, is on point here:

Quote:

Each strategy was paired with each other strategy for 200 iterations of a Prisoner's Dilemma game, and scored on the total points accumulated through the tournament. The winner was a very simple strategy submitted by Anatol Rapoport called "TIT FOR TAT" (TFT) that cooperates on the first move, and subsequently echoes (reciprocates) what the other player did on the previous move. The results of the first tournament were analyzed and published, and a second tournament held to see if anyone could find a better strategy. TIT FOR TAT won again. Axelrod analyzed the results, and made some interesting discoveries about the nature of cooperation, which he describes in his book.

In both actual tournaments and various replays the best performing strategies were nice: that is, they were never the first to defect. Many of the competitors went to great lengths to gain an advantage over the "nice" (and usually simpler) strategies, but to no avail: tricky strategies fighting for a few points generally could not do as well as nice strategies working together. TFT (and other "nice" strategies generally) "won, not by doing better than the other player, but by eliciting cooperation [and] by promoting the mutual interest rather than by exploiting the other's weakness."

Being "nice" can be beneficial, but it can also lead to being suckered. To obtain the benefit – or avoid exploitation – it is necessary to be provocable to both retaliation and forgiveness. When the other player defects, a nice strategy must immediately be provoked into retaliatory defection. The same goes for forgiveness: return to cooperation as soon as the other player does. Overdoing the punishment risks escalation, and can lead to an "unending echo of alternating defections" that depresses the scores of both players.

Most of the games that game theory had heretofore investigated are "zero-sum" – that is, the total rewards are fixed, and a player does well only at the expense of other players. But real life is not zero-sum. Our best prospects are usually in cooperative efforts. In fact, TFT cannot score higher than its partner; at best it can only do "as good as". Yet it won the tournaments by consistently scoring a strong second-place with a variety of partners. Axelrod summarizes this as don't be envious; in other words, don't strive for a payoff greater than the other player's.

In any IPD game there is a certain maximum score each player can get by always cooperating. But some strategies try to find ways of getting a little more with an occasional defection (exploitation). This can work against some strategies that are less provocable or more forgiving than TIT FOR TAT, but generally they do poorly. "A common problem with these rules is that they used complex methods of making inferences about the other player [strategy] – and these inferences were wrong." Against TFT one can do no better than to simply cooperate. Axelrod calls this clarity. Or: don't be too clever. [Another way to put it would be broadcasting to the other player--"you know what will happen, so don't even think about it."]

In line with this, I generally think that Democratic opposition to Trump and the GOP should be (1) nice, (2) provocable/retaliatory, (3) forgiving, (4) non-envious, and (5) clearly-defined.

That's basically what I mean by "but perhaps with a bit less cynicism." It's not a perfect analogy because, despite some similarities, American politics isn't an IPD. For one, we can see in advance what a policy is likely to lead to. So that alters the strategy a bit, as does the fact that the political power of the majority and minority is asymmetric. IPD is still a useful model to consider strategy in scenarios where you face an ongoing interaction with a potential partner or opponent.

Here's how I'd put TFT principles into practice in our present situation:

1. Democrats/Obama were already nice. They proposed a centrist SCOTUS nominee who previously had been held out as an example of someone who'd be acceptable to Republicans. McConnell defected. (One can find similar examples of rebuffed concessions in the Recovery Act and Affordable Care Act).

2. Failing to retaliate for the obstruction of Garland will reward McConnell for his defection and encourage future ones. If Democrats don't want to be suckers, they must therefore pre-announce criteria for an SCOTUS nominee they can live with and oppose any Trump nominee who fails to meet those criteria. If Trump decides to be reasonable, Democrats should stick with the pre-announced criteria and confirm his nominee (in effect forgiving McConnell for his earlier obstruction and giving Trump an important win, but still ultimately getting a much-preferred outcome through cooperation than is possible through automatic defection--i.e., non-envy vs. partisan tribalism).

3. But if Trump does not seize the opportunity to cooperate, and Democratic opposition encourages McConnell to nuke the filibuster, then so be it. Republicans will have destroyed their favorite obstructionist tool to gain a momentary advantage and won't be able to rely on it when they're next out of power. If the criteria Democrats announced are indeed reasonable, then Republicans will have done this to ram through a radical nominee who is out of step with the country. The consequences of such a jurist sitting on the SCOTUS will be severe, but even they can be undone in time. For now, weaponize the issue in 2018 and 2020.

Same goes for an infrastructure bill. Or ACA replacements:

Announce criteria for acceptable policies and don't shrink from them. If Republicans propose acceptable policies, work with them and don't yank the football at the last minute. If they don't make genuine concessions, oppose Republican policies vehemently--but without tribalism, rancor or unnecessary bridge-burning on other issues. Announcing consistent principles and being prepared to follow through if there's a good faith effort to accommodate them insulates Democrats from charges of pure partisan obstructionism. It also builds public trust in the Democratic Party for its own "Contract with America"-style pledge in 2018.

If Republicans consistently fail to propose acceptable policies, again, so be it. We will have gridlock. And, as we've seen, that will mostly likely redound to Trump's detriment. He ran a norm-incinerating demagogic campaign and shamelessly exploited both the Comey letter and the Putin-sponsored Wikileaks. Even then he failed to win more votes, and is poised to lead a historically unpopular minority government. It's on Trump to reach out to Democrats to mend fences and make compromises. If he doesn't, his Presidency will not succeed.

04-02-2017 , 11:37 PM

#23705

tomrh3

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,328

Quote:

Originally Posted by simplicitus

Most of these 5th graders are literally smarter than Trump (definitely worth a 5 min watch).

https://twitter.com/MarkHalperin/sta...03297884180480

+1, good watch. This sample of 5th graders may legitimately be more informed than the average US voter. These kids have political phone alerts. In 5th grade.

04-02-2017 , 11:46 PM

#23706

Pokerlogist

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 3,337

Joke time!

Bush, Queen Elizabeth and Vladimir Putin all died and went to hell.

While there, they saw a red phone and asked what the phone was for. The devil told them it's for calling back to Earth. Putin asked to call Russia and talked for 5 minutes. When he finished talking, the devil informed him that the cost was a million dollars, so Putin wrote him a cheque. Next, Queen Elizabeth called England and talked for 30 minutes. When she finished, the devil informed her that the cost was 6 million dollars, so she wrote him a cheque. Finally, Bush got his turn and talked for 4 hours. When he finished, the devil informed him that the cost was 5.00 dollars. When Putin heard this, he went ballistic and asked the devil why Bush got to call USA so cheaply!

The devil smiled and replied: "Since Trump took over the presidency, the country has gone to hell, so it's a local call."

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

04-02-2017 , 11:55 PM

#23707

Melkerson

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,382

Quote:

Originally Posted by simplicitus

Most of these 5th graders are literally smarter than Trump (definitely worth a 5 min watch).

https://twitter.com/MarkHalperin/sta...03297884180480

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomrh3

+1, good watch. This sample of 5th graders may legitimately be more informed than the average US voter. These kids have political phone alerts. In 5th grade.

I really wasn't sure what to make of it. Sounded like all of them were just parroting the views of their parents while having a 5th grade understanding of the issues (e.g. kid who said "I think he is doing a better job than Hillary would have done").

Agree that their understanding of things, as limited as it is (and appropriately so, as they're just in 5th grade), is probably better than a lot of voters.

04-03-2017 , 12:01 AM

#23708

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,362

Hiked with a couple guys for a while today. One of them told me the reason peanut allergies have skyrocketed is that parents don't feed their kids peanuts from age 0-5 (when apparently exposure to peanuts is needed to get immunity from the allergy) - because they're afraid of...

Spoiler:

I have not confirmed this.

Oh yeah found out mercifully close to the end of the hike that one of the dudes is a Trump fan. Highlights:

Hillary is the devil
Don't worry about surveillance because govt is incompetent (he works in govt), except Hillary - she'd be spying all up in your ****
Dems control everything. When I pointed out that Dems control nothing and dropping fast - he replied with: The Media
Ever since Obamacare [unclear, mercifully - but it was something bad]
He's an independent because he voted for Bill Clinton over GHWB

There was more I can't remember. I actually brought up Bannon when we were talking about browser history being used as a political weapon - then quickly regretted it.

Confirmed these guys are never going to turn on Trump until he demonstrably wrecks the entire country.

Last edited by suzzer99; 04-03-2017 at 12:09 AM.

04-03-2017 , 12:11 AM

#23709

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

They're just fine with black people, as long as none of them ever commit any crimes, or complain, or speak out of turn.

Or appear to be getting further ahead than themselves economically.

There is an order to things dammit.

04-03-2017 , 12:13 AM

#23710

simplicitus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 10,841

That Tit For Tat game theory analysis is post of the week. I've been thinking of things lately as calling for a TFT strategy and that lays it out nicely, better than I could.

04-03-2017 , 12:13 AM

#23711

fatkid

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Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Hiking with PB & J boys? Damn son that's real talk.

04-03-2017 , 12:17 AM

#23712

Onlydo2days

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,775

Trump meeting with Jinping this week. I doubt he goes too far with the trade stuff, the market and special interests hate it.

On the other hand, this seems like the only thing he actually cares about besides building a wall and banning muslims. He has been talking about it since the early 80's, so maybe he won't just get a few small changes and lay down.

04-03-2017 , 12:20 AM

#23713

Trolly McTrollson

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 38,056

Man, I respect everything fatkid has done for this nation, but hating on PB&J has to stop. That is 100% standard trail food, bro do you even hike?

04-03-2017 , 12:23 AM

#23714

simplicitus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 10,841

Speaking of appointing good judges,

White House Ends Bar Association’s Role in Vetting Judges

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/3...itics&referer=

Micth McConnell is like, "please stop me before I confirm 4 years worth of unqualified judges." BTW, the reason dems went nuclear is that the Senate was slow walking good judges just like they did with Garland. Now they get a bunch of todies and flunkies that will help bring essential institutions into further disrepute. ("But her emails!")

04-03-2017 , 12:26 AM

#23715

einbert

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Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 14,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

I'm pretty sure he's gonna hand her a bill for the trade deficit.

04-03-2017 , 12:36 AM

#23716

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

lol yeah I hike. I usually bring fishing gear cuz that's how I roll. I like Mountain House Freeze dried cuz it doesn't take up weight in your pack. I like to have an organized and lightweight pack. If your a vegetarian you need to get Backpackers Pantry freeze dried, they taste good. I like PB & J bro just not on the trail.

04-03-2017 , 01:26 AM

#23717

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,362

No one was eating it on the trail. We were discussing peanut allergies.

04-03-2017 , 03:58 AM

#23718

Our House

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 28,109

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

He already started his preemptive bullying this weekend with talks about how we will deal with N Korea with or without China's help.

04-03-2017 , 04:24 AM

#23719

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

I'm pretty sure he's gonna hand her a bill for the trade deficit.

Xi Jinping is a man

04-03-2017 , 04:31 AM

#23720

BroadwaySushy

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,237

Lol

04-03-2017 , 06:16 AM

#23721

ChrisV

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Not sure why this isnt in LC thread, but there was a study of genetically similar people of Asian descent in Australia comparing kids born here with those who came here circa age 5. Nut allergies were more common among those born here, so something environmental is happening and lack of immune challenge early in life is a good candidate.

04-03-2017 , 07:44 AM

#23722

thethethe

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Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 8,803

Trump ready to 'solve' North Korea problem without China

If I were in S.Korea, I'd be making some hasty holiday plans...

04-03-2017 , 07:51 AM

#23723

yeSpiff

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,313

Just asking!

04-03-2017 , 07:54 AM

#23724

yeSpiff

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,313

Just asking!

04-03-2017 , 07:55 AM

#23725

DudeImBetter

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Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 10,666

Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

So Trump is lighting up the white house blue tonight in honor of "Autism Speaks." Sounds great, right? But then you find out Autism Speaks is not exactly a great organization for autistic folks.

April, Autism, and Allies
http://neurocosmopolitanism.com/apri...sm-and-allies/

Well, I worked at an ABA provider doing ADOS diagnostics for years alongside ppl with BCBA-Ds and hundreds of families of children with Autism who never had a negative word to say about Autism Speaks, so I'd like to hear this author's reasoning.

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