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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

02-26-2017 , 11:19 PM
Some music for the Trump admin.



02-26-2017 , 11:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nicholasp27
We had an agreement with Russia to mutually reduce our nuclear arsenals

Putin asks Trump on the phone about continuing that plan and Trump says Obama made a bad deal and wants to renegotiate

Now he comes out saying we need to be first in nukes even tho we already are

Cold War 2 incoming
so we won!
02-26-2017 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
I always eat steak with ketchup. Sorry, not sorry, it's just better.
That's a pretty big flaw.

We should all work on Making All the Cheese great again. Even steak sauce is a bit of an abomination on a properly cooked, quality piece of meat.
02-26-2017 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
But you know that's the new normal we live in. If you eat your steak at anything nicer than Applebee's, you're an out-of-touch coastal elite and Trump is sticking it to you but good.
The real story here is that Trump Steaks must be much, much worse than anyone could have fathomed.
02-27-2017 , 12:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
There have been a lot of conflicting studies over the years about what the effects of a full scale nuclear war between superpowers would look like. While civilization almost certainly collapses due to the huge die offs, inevitable starvation and outbreaks of just every disease imaginable, and breakdowns in every social structure we depend on for modern life, there is not a consensus on whether the earth becomes so irradiated that literally every human dies, life is pretty resilient. Most people likely don't die directly because of the nukes either, they die because of the secondary effects of the collapse of civilization.

Edit: Also we survived a devastating ice age 195,000 years ago, so if Nuclear Winter is a thing, we'd almost certainly survive that as well.
The radiation from a nuclear war would be the least of our worries. Even ground zero for thermonuclear explosions is habitable again within months. The extent of nuclear winter is the big unknown question. The human race would certainly survive a nuclear winter, civilization would likely not.
02-27-2017 , 12:31 AM
I've been fed romanticized post-apocalyptic stories about the triumph of humanity my entire life. Everything from a dad taking a long walk with his son to a dude playing a flamethrower guitar. I don't know how it's all going to play out exactly, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be awesome.
02-27-2017 , 12:43 AM
Carl Sagan has written extensively on the argument of nuclear disarmament and potential nuclear winter.

So you can either read his ideas and hope for the best or watch:



THE ROAD
02-27-2017 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
I guess we knew this already, but Spicey is confirmed mad:

Quote:
Spicer, who consulted with White House counsel Don McGahn before calling the meeting, was accompanied by White House lawyers in the room, according to multiple sources. There, he explicitly warned staffers that using texting apps like Confide -- an encrypted and screenshot-protected messaging app that automatically deletes texts after they are sent -- and Signal, another encrypted messaging system, was a violation of the Federal Records Act, according to multiple sources in the room.
Remember like a month ago when GOP staffers all started using those apps so as to avoid having any leaks or incriminating documents floating around?

Sure didn't care about the legality then.
02-27-2017 , 12:44 AM
having played that scenario multiple times sid meier civilization definitely survives thermonuclear war.
02-27-2017 , 12:51 AM
We need a constant stream of "Don't let X distract you from the fact that Y" memes.

Probably not the best example but the most recent:

Don't let President Trump ordering his steak well done with ketchup distract you from the fact the White House is conducting phone checks on staff.

Or

Don't let President Trump dropping out of the Correspondents Dinner distract you from the fact that the White House asked the FBI to discredit the Trump associates links with Russia.
02-27-2017 , 01:18 AM
yeah, I agree. It seems like Trump's own idiocy is saving him so far. That Russia deal seems like it should be one of the biggest stories of my lifetime (I'm 36) and it seems to have gotten mostly swept under the rug from the media/news and feels like there will be no repercussions from it, no matter what role Trump or his aides played in it.
02-27-2017 , 01:30 AM
Give it time, I'm sincerely hoping there's some deep Investigation going on in the Intelligence Community right now. Who know's maybe we'll wake up one morning with a breaking news alert and the impeachment process starting.
02-27-2017 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fuluck414
Give it time, I'm sincerely hoping there's some deep Investigation going on in the Intelligence Community right now. Who know's maybe we'll wake up one morning with a breaking news alert and the impeachment process starting.
won't happen until 2019 at the soonest. GOP has announced they don't care how many laws Trump breaks, they have no intention of investigating him whatsoever.
02-27-2017 , 01:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
I've been fed romanticized post-apocalyptic stories about the triumph of humanity my entire life. Everything from a dad taking a long walk with his son to a dude playing a flamethrower guitar. I don't know how it's all going to play out exactly, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be awesome.
If it involves eating a well-done steak with ketchup, I'm taking the easy way out.
02-27-2017 , 01:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
won't happen until 2019 at the soonest. GOP has announced they don't care how many laws Trump breaks, they have no intention of investigating him whatsoever.
CIA, NSA, and what not are bipartisan right? There's got to be some good guys in there. If they came up with something so damning congress would have to act.
02-27-2017 , 01:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fuluck414
CIA, NSA, and what not are bipartisan right? There's got to be some good guys in there. If they came up with something so damning congress would have to act.
How many years into this are people still going to fall for this "it MUST happen though, right?" nonsense that hasn't been true once yet?

Congress does not have to act on anything like this, ever.
02-27-2017 , 01:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
How many years into this are people still going to fall for this "it MUST happen though, right?" nonsense that hasn't been true once yet?

Congress does not have to act on anything like this, ever.
I know it's not likely, but you're telling me if the CIA comes out with 100% hard evidence that Donald Trump and Russia are colluding, congress wouldn't act?
02-27-2017 , 02:00 AM
I'd only be confident saying there's a 30% chance they'd act, at most.
02-27-2017 , 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
I'd only be confident saying there's a 30% chance they'd act, at most.
Well that's dumb.
02-27-2017 , 02:12 AM
It's dumb that this is how politics are in America right now, i agree.

Speaking of dumb, some of Trump's state-run media are making up stories to do some character assassination of reporters he doesn't like:



Read more here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...sing-his-grip/
02-27-2017 , 02:12 AM
Seems like some leaking could easily be done by spicey/administration themselves. Spicey can yell at the reporters, all while testing how the story will play and bannon moderating some language in the proposals. Or they could try to embarrass the press by essentially just pocketing something egregious altogether.
02-27-2017 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
The waiter could get harassed by pro-Trumpers or anti-Trumpers depending on how the story was perceived by the readers.
Or both, even. Anti-Trumpers think he's in tight with Trump... Pro-Trumpers think he's making fun of how Trump (and they) eat their steaks. He gets it from both sides.

I gotta question how well Trump is taking care of the guy if he's even talking, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
yeah, I agree. It seems like Trump's own idiocy is saving him so far. That Russia deal seems like it should be one of the biggest stories of my lifetime (I'm 36) and it seems to have gotten mostly swept under the rug from the media/news and feels like there will be no repercussions from it, no matter what role Trump or his aides played in it.
Part of the reason for the intelligence community leaks, in my opinion, was to make sure it didn't get buried/ignored. Mission accomplished, for the most part. It seems like they've been able to continue and the White House efforts to squash it have been resisted. They may need to steadily leak stuff to keep it going, but obviously they seem prepared to do so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
won't happen until 2019 at the soonest. GOP has announced they don't care how many laws Trump breaks, they have no intention of investigating him whatsoever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fuluck414
I know it's not likely, but you're telling me if the CIA comes out with 100% hard evidence that Donald Trump and Russia are colluding, congress wouldn't act?
You guys are missing the key step... It's number four:

1. Investigation

2. Results

3. GOP-controlled Congress waits publicly, Republicans probably give some evasive answers about seeing all the evidence themselves. Behind closed doors they know what's right, but aren't sure they should do it politically.

4. Trump's approval rating goes to...?

5. If it's low enough, he gets impeached.

How low is low enough? A significant number of Republicans in Congress need to see enough of their supporters backing Articles of Impeachment to sign on. It has to be a significant enough number that Paul Ryan feels it's in the parties best interest to move, so probably more than the ~25 they'd need to get a simple majority vote. What's that number? I'm guessing it's around 50-60, and to get to that number, Trump would probably need to lose around 1/3 of his supporters since there aren't many swing districts. (If someone is in a 60% Republican district, they'd probably need to feel they were staring down 60-40 against to take action, or potentially facing a competitive primary challenge.)

So, you're probably looking for approval ratings in the low 30's to start making it a possibility. He's in the high 30s/low 40s now, so that's losing about 25% of his support and starting to get in the ballpark. The good news is, that makes it a possibility for almost anything to be the grounds for impeachment - emoluments clause, Russian stuff, or how he eats his steak. He's already impeachable, the polls just aren't there yet.

I have to THINK that hard evidence from our intelligence community would get him down to the low 30s or high 20s. Fox News wouldn't ignore it, and that still carries weight among the only half-crazy right wingers. Short of the Russian ties, I'm not sure what would get him into the territory where impeachment becomes realistic. Starting a really stupid war may or may not do it.

Last, but not least, 100% hard evidence on the Russian stuff could lead to immediate movement on the 25th Amendment. Honestly, if Pence put it in motion right now, I think it'd be within a vote or two either way given the vacancies and acting cabinet officials. But, if the evidence came out, the cabinet would probably immediately invoke the 25th and then let Congress sort it out when Trump fought back, then move on impeachment.
02-27-2017 , 05:26 AM
By the time his approval rating hits 20s, a lot of republicans would have taken a shot at him to boost their own pathetic chances of riding it out or even scoring political points out of it. Once house representatives reconvene and try to put the brakes on the repeal, we are going to see a bunch of them look busy with some sort of investigation rather than burning the midnight oil on a healthcare bill.
02-27-2017 , 06:16 AM
There's a fair chunk of Trump's support that wouldn't give a rat's behind if he went out and shot someone in front of a 100 TV cameras. I think he's relatively safe from a historically bad approval rating.

Even if it does plunge below 30 the Republicans need him to push their agenda - the ones they want to get through especially are gutting Obamacare and the precious tax cuts for the rich. Once they get those through, I think Trumps position becomes a lot more tenuous. The only thing that may change that is a hefty smoking cannon implicating Trump with Putin, which I guess is reasonably likely.
02-27-2017 , 06:20 AM
If there isn't a slam dunk criminal case the GOP will just ride out the Trump presidency and primary him in 2019 if he is too unpopular. Impeaching a Republican president is an admission of fault and would tarnish their brand.

      
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