The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. - Page 554 - Politics and Economics

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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

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02-25-2017 , 11:38 PM

#13826

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,910

Republicans going to really clean up in 2018 if they take away millions of healthcare

02-25-2017 , 11:40 PM

#13827

thenewsavman

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobman0330

The increase in labor force participation rate is actually smaller proportionately than the drop in hours worked. Something like 59% for the late postwar period compared to 63% now. The drop in hours worked is 10+%.

The labor force participation rate among working age people does reflect exactly what microbet is saying re: women in the work force (and the broader point that households today work at least as much as their counterparts a generation or so ago, but have much less to show for it.).

While you're correct re: the overall participation rate, a closer examination shows us that the seemingly low rate is mostly an artifact of a large demographic glut retiring. i.e. dem Boomers.

When you look at ages 25-54 the labor force participation rate it is much higher than a generation ago. While hours per worker have fallen, in the worst case the two offset each other.

Ages 25-54 labor participation rate: link
Hours worked per employed person: link

Take the mid 70's, say 1975, which was the focus of Elizabeth Warrens research, the average hours worked per employed person was about 1830 and the participation rate was about 74%; fast forward to 2011 and the participation rate is about 82%, so 8% higher, but hours worked were only ~4% less at ~1760.

In the mid 1970's the same household was saving 11% of their income and has pretty much zero debt (outside of their mortgage), in 2011 they have a negative savings rate and much much more debt. And this is in the face of 30 years of falling prices (in real dollars) of durable goods, food, clothing, cars etc. And they are working harder to boot! (in aggregate).

And this also doesn't account for the fact that workers are much more productive in 2011 vs. 1975. GDP per hour worked is nearly twice what is was in 1975.

So households are working more, most consumer goods are cheaper (and they are spending less on said goods), and productivity per worker is up like 90%. Despite all that, the only thing people have more of is debt.

Thanks Obama!

Last edited by thenewsavman; 02-25-2017 at 11:45 PM.

02-25-2017 , 11:46 PM

#13828

d10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,513

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Also, lol banks. They could have ruined this dumbass a hundred times, yet chose to lend him more money to avoid recognizing losses.

So instead of realizing losses they got a President who has promised to repeal banking regulations, sent most bank stocks skyrocketing +~50% in 3 months, and now has enough corrupt revenue streams to pay off his debts. Seems like they should be pretty happy with the way things have been going lately, why is that lol banks?

02-25-2017 , 11:50 PM

#13829

thenewsavman

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

Everything has to do with drumpf.

Excess labor made redundant due to automation will be redirected to cover the shortage from deporting browns. Some will get depressed and turn to drugs. They will be occupancy drivers for the soon-to-be booming prison industry. There's your safety net, snowflakes.

Dude the prison industry has been on an absolute tear since about 1980. Get out of here with that soon-to-be booming noise.

Try basing arguments on facts and data instead of hyperbole and prognositcation.

02-25-2017 , 11:55 PM

#13830

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,910

You know things have gotten crazy when USA Today has implemented anonymous whistleblower/tipster procedures and protocols.

https://newstips.usatoday.com

02-25-2017 , 11:59 PM

#13831

dlk9s

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 22,499

They should put Trump on full-blown monkey tilt and invite Hillary to sit-in in his place at the WHCD.

02-26-2017 , 12:00 AM

#13832

Huehuecoyotl

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,313

Tillerson has been sidelined and doing pretty bad at his job anyways

Quote:

Mr. Tillerson has largely been absent from White House meetings with foreign leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, and reportedly was excluded from such major decisions as Mr. Trump’s withdrawal of support for a Palestinian state and his declaration that Iran is now “on notice” for testing ballistic missiles. Mr. Trump’s rejection of Mr. Tillerson’s choice for deputy secretary of state was a public rebuke that undermined the secretary within his department and raised further doubts about his standing with the president.

For now at least, Mr. Tillerson, a former CEO of Exxon Mobil who has no foreign policy or government experience, has been eclipsed by Jim Mattis, the defense secretary; Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, the national security adviser; and John Kelly, the secretary of homeland security. All three men are generals, and while they are respected experts in their fields, their backgrounds could lead to an overly militaristic approach to foreign policy. That makes the voice of the State Department, with its focus on diplomacy, more important than ever. But too often this voice has seemed muffled.

Quote:

Mr. Tillerson has not helped himself by moving too slowly to build a competent staff. He is also said to have isolated himself from career diplomats who know the issues best by restricting the number and types of officials who attend senior staff meetings or have access to him. Every secretary needs his own people in top positions, but it is impossible to devise or execute good policies without the support of the institution — something Mr. Tillerson must know from his Exxon days.

Meanwhile, he has made few public statements, given no public interviews, tightly restricted the number of reporters he allows to travel on his plane and suspended the daily State Department press briefings — a decades-old practice that is useful in explaining the administration’s policies and reactions to world events. (The department*said Friday*that briefings would resume on March 6 but not necessarily on a daily basis.) No president can expect Americans to support his policies if they are not explained.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/2....co/TPio3P1lmR

02-26-2017 , 12:06 AM

#13833

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenewsavman

Dude the prison industry has been on an absolute tear since about 1980. Get out of here with that soon-to-be booming noise.

Try basing arguments on facts and data instead of hyperbole and prognositcation.

Fair point! Soon-to-be reinvigorated "you ain't seen nothin' yet™" boom!

02-26-2017 , 12:08 AM

#13834

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenewsavman

Dude the prison industry has been on an absolute tear since about 1980. Get out of here with that soon-to-be booming noise.

Try basing arguments on facts and data instead of hyperbole and prognositcation.

lol everyone in this thread knows the above already, including Max Cut. Idk how much more obviously a post has to be in tongue-in-cheek for you not to respond to it with a smug chessmate style comment.

02-26-2017 , 12:14 AM

#13835

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

I wonder what percentage of Americans are aware of that.

02-26-2017 , 12:16 AM

#13836

aoFrantic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 25,218

Quote:

Originally Posted by markksman

Republicans going to really clean up in 2018 if they take away millions of healthcare

I really wonder how he will attempt to grow the economy 1.5% above the IMF estimates while taking a giant turd on the tourism and agriculture industries. Oh right, he'll cook the books or not release numbers like Kansas.

02-26-2017 , 12:23 AM

#13837

uDevil

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 6,941

The fake news media seems to going with Trump is a pussy in reaction to his skipping the correspondents' dinner. First president since Reagan to miss it, and that was cause he got shot. And Reagan still managed to call in to make a joke.

02-26-2017 , 12:25 AM

#13838

thenewsavman

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

I wonder what percentage of Americans are aware of that.

My guess is a very low number.

Land of the free and all that.

02-26-2017 , 01:04 AM

#13839

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by markksman

Republicans going to really clean up in 2018 if they take away millions of healthcare

Nah, all the trumpeters who will lose their insurance will be too stupid to vote against republicans who did it to them. White hillbilly rednecks who put trump in office are too stupid not to vote against their own self interests, because as bad as it is with no health care, at least they showed those uppity "black lives matter" liberals what's what.

02-26-2017 , 01:57 AM

#13840

eurodp

adept

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 890

02-26-2017 , 02:29 AM

#13841

surfinillini

pessimist

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 10,405

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenewsavman

Dude the prison industry has been on an absolute tear since about 1980. Get out of here with that soon-to-be booming noise.

Try basing arguments on facts and data instead of hyperbole and prognositcation.

Ok confession:

I invested in private prison stocks after the election.

CoreCivic and GEO group specifically.

They're up. BIGLY

02-26-2017 , 02:33 AM

#13842

wheatrich

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 21,446

Quote:

Originally Posted by surfinillini

Ok confession:

I invested in private prison stocks after the election.

CoreCivic and GEO group specifically.

They're up. BIGLY

I thought russia stocks would go up more--lol me.

02-26-2017 , 04:33 AM

#13843

JacktheDumb

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,427

Quote:

Originally Posted by dopebeats

That's the thing about automation. Fewer and fewer people will be required to do all of the work. At that point labor becomes of very little value, while energy skyrockets in value. It becomes an issue of 'we have all of these machines to do our work very efficiently, but how do we power them?' Which is why I believe fusion tech will be very important in the future. Even more fission reactors will be crucial until we can get there.

Automation is not a new thing. My fathers job 30 years ago was to assemble robots. If you want to know what happens in the future just look in the past. Those things happened over the past centurys over and over again.

02-26-2017 , 04:59 AM

#13844

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,910

02-26-2017 , 04:59 AM

#13845

yeSpiff

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,313

The United States is once again an attractive location for investment in work that was designed for Third World labor markets. Thanks to prison labor.

recently urged Nike to cut its production in Indonesia and bring it to his state, telling the shoe manufacturer that “there won’t be any transportation costs; we’re offering you competitive prison labor (here).”

02-26-2017 , 05:03 AM

#13846

yeSpiff

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,313

Arbeit macht frei

02-26-2017 , 07:11 AM

#13847

JacktheDumb

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,427

Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

That's why it's important to remember that Team Grownup did win the popular vote by 2,900,000 and has won the pop. vote in 6 out of the last 7 elections. The Republican agenda, whether they are able to enact all of it or not, is seriously unpopular. There's a lot of reason to be hopeful going forward, especially seeing people finally waking up and being active in democracy after the election.

It just sticks out that they won the popular vote in 6 out of 7 elections but they didnt win 6 of those election. What i mean with this is that it needs more then just the hope of a majority of people with a good will. The fight for democratic rights in the USA often enough seems like a losing battle. I know Americans think they are the beacon of democracy but in reality the USA isnt the top contender, it is ranked as a flawed democracy.

Even if Trump would step back tomorrow. How much would you trust a Pence lead congress to better lifes for the people instead of enriching itself?

Trump is just a symptom, the USA does have a systematic problem that is looming since a long time and just becomes more obvious then ever, money governs way more then the people.

Last edited by JacktheDumb; 02-26-2017 at 07:25 AM.

02-26-2017 , 07:44 AM

#13848

JacktheDumb

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,427

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

Tillerson has been sidelined and doing pretty bad at his job anyways

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/2....co/TPio3P1lmR

At this point we have to remember what just happend a month ago before we blame Tillerson.

Quote:

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s job running the State Department just got considerably more difficult. The entire senior level of management officials resigned Wednesday, part of an ongoing mass exodus of senior Foreign Service officers who don’t want to stick around for the Trump era.

Quote:

“It’s the single biggest simultaneous departure of institutional memory that anyone can remember, and that’s incredibly difficult to replicate,” said David Wade, who served as State Department chief of staff under Secretary of State John Kerry. “Department expertise in security, management, administrative and consular positions in particular are very difficult to replicate and particularly difficult to find in the private sector.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.bf6b4ff84626

It was also rumored, that they were sacked by Trumps team... the weakening of his department is probably intentional.

02-26-2017 , 08:01 AM

#13849

weeeez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 3,833

1st nice thing he says to dems

RUINED

02-26-2017 , 08:08 AM

#13850

+rep_lol

banned

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 14,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenewsavman

Dude the prison industry has been on an absolute tear since about 1980. Get out of here with that soon-to-be booming noise.

Try basing arguments on facts and data instead of hyperbole and prognositcation.

obama rescinded the use of private prisons in the federal system during the last portion of his term. jeff sessions has rescinded that memo "in preparation for our future incarceration needs", i think was his exact quote. given what's going on with deportations, spicey's comments about rec/medical marijuana in various states, and daddy's remarks about increasing police presence in urban areas, it's a very safe bet that the DOJ will step up the mass incarceration that's been going on for years already. lol @ "hyperbole", go read the ****ing news sometime bro

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