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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

02-25-2017 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
That's not even close to realistic. Do you think complex machinery doesn't require skill to run?
Yeah I wonder by these post most of people saying how easy it is to run the machinery have never worked in a factory. CNC operators are just running a machine but you have to go to school to run it. The jobs get cut are usually simpler jobs like turn a bolt and easy spot welding.

Last edited by Matt_PBA; 02-25-2017 at 01:48 PM. Reason: grammar errors
02-25-2017 , 01:50 PM
They also went from 120+ employees down to 25ish but they lost half of their business so that's not a true measure of how much easier the technology made the jobs.
02-25-2017 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt_PBA
Yeah I wonder by these post most of people saying how easy it is to run the machinery have never worked in a factory. CNC operators are just running a machine but you have to go to school to run it. The jobs get cut are usually simpler jobs like turn a bolt and easy spot welding.
Yeah, I don't think we're going to replace truck drivers with some machine operator that needs schooling.
02-25-2017 , 02:02 PM
You are not going to replace the truck drivers with no one for *AWHILE*, maybe a really long while. You will still have a driver/pilot in the seat, but he'll be doing less effort for the same or more amount of work. The industry will also hire many schooled and skilled technicians who have to service the new, infinitely more complex truck.

I remember learning about luddites in middle school. On the one hand you can totally sympathize with them. OTOH, historically the technological advancements themselves made life way better not worse, even for the very people it displaced. I side with history in this case and vote/pay taxes for safety nets to actually help such people. No one seems to mind that elevator operators ceased to exist.
02-25-2017 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt_PBA
Yeah I wonder by these post most of people saying how easy it is to run the machinery have never worked in a factory. CNC operators are just running a machine but you have to go to school to run it. The jobs get cut are usually simpler jobs like turn a bolt and easy spot welding.
Yea, no. You don't have to go to school to run a CNC. Kids are running CNC machines in their bedrooms that they assembled themselves(3D printing). CNC mills,lathes and drills are infinitely easier to operate. That is one of the main reasons that they exist. They actually require less skill to obtain a better product.
02-25-2017 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dopebeats
Yea, no. You don't have to go to school to run a CNC. Kids are running CNC machines in their bedrooms that they assembled themselves(3D printing). CNC mills,lathes and drills are infinitely easier to operate. That is one of the main reasons that they exist. They actually require less skill to obtain a better product.
Oh ffs, do you think kids who are playing with 3D printing at home are going to be machine operators when they grow up? They will not just be machining parts for you, they'll be doing exponentially more with their skills.
02-25-2017 , 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
You are not going to replace the truck drivers with no one for *AWHILE*, maybe a really long while. You will still have a driver/pilot in the seat, but he'll be doing less effort for the same or more amount of work. The industry will also hire many schooled and skilled technicians who have to service the new, infinitely more complex truck.

I remember learning about luddites in middle school. On the one hand you can totally sympathize with them. OTOH, historically the technological advancements themselves made life way better not worse, even for the very people it displaced. I side with history in this case and vote/pay taxes for safety nets to actually help such people. No one seems to mind that elevator operators ceased to exist.
I agree with a lot of that but what are the drivers going to make? At the moment the industry is dying for drivers. If you have a CDL A you can get a job anywhere and have a decent life. 50-60k easy. I have a CDL A and I've driven a little here and there. It took me a month to learn and I don't have a lot of hours behind the wheel but I can do it. The industry is moving to automatics right now. Largely in part to the fact it's hard to find people that can drive these things safely. Making all the trucks auto's enlarges the potential hiring pool. All you really have to worry about then is drifting, following distances, and backing up. Obviously there's a little more to it but shifting a 13 speed or even an 18 speed takes skill. There's tricks to it. That skill set is being phased out.

I agree that it's probably dumb to try and hold back technology but I would really like to see people that aren't gifted have a decent life in this country.
02-25-2017 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
You are not going to replace the truck drivers with no one for *AWHILE*, maybe a really long while. You will still have a driver/pilot in the seat, but he'll be doing less effort for the same or more amount of work. The industry will also hire many schooled and skilled technicians who have to service the new, infinitely more complex truck.

I remember learning about luddites in middle school. On the one hand you can totally sympathize with them. OTOH, historically the technological advancements themselves made life way better not worse, even for the very people it displaced. I side with history in this case and vote/pay taxes for safety nets to actually help such people. No one seems to mind that elevator operators ceased to exist.
Or like most how most businesses work the mechanics now become computer technicians. Or like most people speculate will happen, the technicians and mechanics will be replaced with robots. The trucks wont become 'infinitely more complex' they will just have more electronics in them. It's mechanical complexity will probably be about the same.
02-25-2017 , 02:22 PM
Again, since this tangent has continued,

Sylar has zero understanding of the coming automation and artificial intelligence revolution, both in general and how it will relate to autonomous vehicles. No one with domain knowledge in those fields would agree with his posts on the topic, and they should be given as much weight as someone posting that they have a system to beat roulette. i.e. nonsense.
02-25-2017 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
You are not going to replace the truck drivers with no one for *AWHILE*, maybe a really long while. You will still have a driver/pilot in the seat, but he'll be doing less effort for the same or more amount of work. The industry will also hire many schooled and skilled technicians who have to service the new, infinitely more complex truck.
I'm just saying that if automated trucks still require an inside operator and decreases the pool of people that can do it, the changeover probably won't happen. Efficency or saftey gains alone aren't going to justify getting rid of drivers for companies.
02-25-2017 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
I agree with a lot of that but what are the drivers going to make? At the moment the industry is dying for drivers. If you have a CDL A you can get a job anywhere and have a decent life. 50-60k easy. I have a CDL A and I've driven a little here and there. It took me a month to learn and I don't have a lot of hours behind the wheel but I can do it. The industry is moving to automatics right now. Largely in part to the fact it's hard to find people that can drive these things safely. Making all the trucks auto's enlarges the potential hiring pool. All you really have to worry about then is drifting, following distances, and backing up. Obviously there's a little more to it but shifting a 13 speed or even an 18 speed takes skill. There's tricks to it. That skill set is being phased out.

I agree that it's probably dumb to try and hold back technology but I would really like to see people that aren't gifted have a decent life in this country.
So, support strong minimum wage for these drivers, even those that won't have the skills necessary 10 years ago. Support regulation that guarantees that 1) their jobs won't be be phased out too quickly, and that 2) the would-be drivers have a pathway to learn and attain a different job.
02-25-2017 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
Oh ffs, do you think kids who are playing with 3D printing at home are going to be machine operators when they grow up? They will not just be machining parts for you, they'll be doing exponentially more with their skills.
What are you even? My whole point was that it doesn't require schooling to run a CNC machine. The premise behind running a CNC machine is that it makes the machining require less skill and has higher precision. 3D printing is prototyping tool. These are not mass production machines. However, I think that machining parts will be fully automated in the future so whatever.
02-25-2017 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HastenDan
Again, since this tangent has continued,

Sylar has zero understanding of the coming automation and artificial intelligence revolution, both in general and how it will relate to autonomous vehicles. No one with domain knowledge in those fields would agree with his posts on the topic, and they should be given as much weight as someone posting that they have a system to beat roulette. i.e. nonsense.
Except I actually work in advanced technology, have a postgrad degree in computer science and mathematics, companies who are leaders in AI and ML pay me to write optimized algorithms for them to find their operation inefficiencies, including human factors. But still I accept the small probability that I may know nothing.

What do you do Dan?
02-25-2017 , 02:33 PM
lol
02-25-2017 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
Except I actually work in advanced technology, have a postgrad degree in computer science and mathematics, companies who are leaders in AI and ML pay me to write optimized algorithms for them to find their operation inefficiencies, including human factors. But still I accept the small probability that I may know nothing.

What do you do Dan?
So what will you do when AI starts finding its own inefficiencies, on the fly?
02-25-2017 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dopebeats
What are you even? My whole point was that it doesn't require schooling to run a CNC machine. The premise behind running a CNC machine is that it makes the machining require less skill and has higher precision. 3D printing is prototyping tool. These are not mass production machines. However, I think that machining parts will be fully automated in the future so whatever.
My point is that you are giving these "kids" who could only use a two-button CNC too little credit. They are already smarter than our parents and soon smarter than us. Geez, have some faith in leaps of tech.
02-25-2017 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dopebeats
So what will you do when AI starts finding its own inefficiencies, on the fly?
I suspect we'll move on to another class of problems, such as which incarnation of AI finds these inefficiencies in a better way.

ETA: if anyone from this thread is in Seattle for MLConf on May 19th, I'll buy you a beer!
02-25-2017 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
Except I actually work in advanced technology, have a postgrad degree in computer science and mathematics, companies who are leaders in AI and ML pay me to write optimized algorithms for them to find their operation inefficiencies, including human factors. But still I accept the small probability that I may know nothing.

What do you do Dan?
A quick perusal of your posting history would suggest the above to be false, but whatever you say buddy.

I am a ML 'hobbyist' and hopefully a future research scientist.
02-25-2017 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
So, support strong minimum wage for these drivers, even those that won't have the skills necessary 10 years ago. Support regulation that guarantees that 1) their jobs won't be be phased out too quickly, and that 2) the would-be drivers have a pathway to learn and attain a different job.
Why? Why legislate inefficiencies into business, as a solution to the problem of people not being able to work for their living?
02-25-2017 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketChads
Why? Why legislate inefficiencies into business, as a solution to the problem of people not being able to work for their living?
??? Because we care that people are not actually left behind?
02-25-2017 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HastenDan
A quick perusal of your posting history would suggest the above to be false, but whatever you say buddy.

I am a ML 'hobbyist' and hopefully a future research scientist.
sit the **** down and shut up
02-25-2017 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketChads
Why? Why legislate inefficiencies into business, as a solution to the problem of people not being able to work for their living?
Exactly, which is why a universal basic income will become necessary. It is almost as if humans can't deal with overabundance. So our economic system, which is designed to function as a way to deal with unlimited wants and needs, has to change. The only way I see a major change is when fusion tech is eventually realized.
02-25-2017 , 02:50 PM
this has nothing to do with President Trump
02-25-2017 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HastenDan
A quick perusal of your posting history would suggest the above to be false, but whatever you say buddy.

I am a ML 'hobbyist'
Lol....hobbyist. Like I'm just a hobbyist in alot of fields to. And I accept I'm not qualified to make bold, sweeping claims like your first sentence.
02-25-2017 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HastenDan
A quick perusal of your posting history would suggest the above to be false, but whatever you say buddy.

I am a ML 'hobbyist' and hopefully a future research scientist.
As a hobbyist, you probably haven't actually seen AI in the industry. Not a knockdown of you man, just hard to have access to proprietary research unless you are in it.

      
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