Quote:
Originally Posted by eurodp
The WH report said ~10-50% of ALL jobs and that the concern was that even though up until now we have created new jobs that outnumber those lost that it might not be like that in the future. Take self-driving trucks as an example. Sure you will now have jobs where someone operates a fleet of these trucks but what do the 5/10 that aren't needed anymore do? The fact that truckers don't need to stop in tiny "cities" that depend on passerby means potential job loss there too. What do those people do? I get your point that new jobs come about and have the potential to replace old as that has been the case so far but from examples I have read it appears that isn't necessarily always going to be the case.
Ok let's talk self-driving trucks. The industry is going to trend that way but it will be awhile before a driver won't be in the truck physically. A smartphone-like chip will be doing the driving for 99% of the time, but the driver will still do the parking and the on ramps and stuff. Pretty much like the airline industry today. Their jobs will be first of all easier and safer, but likely not many of them in the distant future.
In fact, we know this with almost perfect clarity, because the government would have to approve or phase in such trucks in stages, possibly over more than two decades, long after this congress or even president. They could legislate the exact year when fully autonomous vehicles were allowed.
So, the industry actually has plenty of time to prepare. Those who are 45-55 years old will be retiring, a very small percentage of them will require a new career. Those who are less than 25 will likely need little government help to transition, and those over 35 will need progressively more. They'll need to work fewer hours, study more, be able to explore entrepreneurship. That's pretty much normal for anyone trying to switch careers. IMO, the government has a role here for every industry, and the truckers will need to rely on it.