Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Two thoughts on this:
1. USA in 2016 isn't Weimar Germany. In terms of the economy, crime, access to education, access to healthcare, things are going really well for America right now. Imagine how well Trump 2.0's message would resonate if things were actually going poorly and urban white guys were desperate for jobs.
2. Trump made some crazy unforced errors. Like, he had historically unique negatives and bragged about sexually assaulting women --heck, many wondered if he was intentionally sabotaging his own campaign! Trump 2.0 might not have these weaknesses. Imagine a Trump who could hide his racism behind dogwhistles.
So, I'm not super optimistic about the future. It's not clear to me that Thiel or some other sociopathic rich celebrity bozo wouldn't be able to craft a superior version of Trump's recipe. I've got nightmares of Ted Cruz staying up late and studying Trump game footage. The only thing that saves us is some kind of huge demographic shift toward a better society. Maybe that comes from liberals being shook and organizing, maybe that comes from oldsters dying off, I just don't know.
Haven't had much time to post in the last few weeks but one danger about this line of thinking is some larger Yuval Harari
Sapiens type ideas: namely that
fictions are like, THE social capital of the post-modern world. Our fiat money system, our laws, our nationalism, the story we tell ourselves -- they are all fictions. And they are powerful and motivate us to act. bobman recently cited the book
Black Earth by Timothy Snyder, which I highly recommend -- about the interplay between the rise of Nazis and these kinds of fictions. He followed up with
Bloodlands which builds on the notion and extends it to the Soviet Union: but one oft forgotten element of Weimar/Nazi history is that the German population, particularly the German right, saw themselves on the precipice of a global ecological crisis that would starve them of natural resources and required a Darwinian campaign of expansion and aggression to ensure labensraum for Germans. We scoff at the idea now because it is highly preposterous given the facts about the world, that the carrying capacity of the world's resources have allowed the Germans to prosper well into the 21st century. But consider how powerful that
fiction was. Consider how that
fiction about the global Jewish conspiracy with designs on sapping Germany of land and industrial capacity, even food -- motivated them to engage in a deadly war of aggression not even 20 years after a holistic disaster of a war had caused immense suffering in Germany. They knew the risks of war and the suffering it portended and willingly moved forward because of how intrinsically frightening and anxious the story made them feel.
And now remember our country is now led by a symbiotic, mutually self-sustaining feedback loop of the Modern American Bloomsbury Group of White Crisis Storytellers -- a right-wing punditry like Fox News and Breitbart whose principle commodity is selling white people fear and anxiety, a President whose main source of information about the world is that brand of serial fiction, who then leads the government and the rest of us into reinforcing those fears if not building the social and cultural political environment that leads to their fruition.
Remember too that there were certainly elements of political crisis throughout Weimar but many of those were precipitated intentionally by Nazis. Or in some cases Communists or others who were enemies of Weimar, of the prevailing small-l liberal order. And then the Wiemar government, made up of actors and people and fraught with all of our frailties -- they weren't able to manage the political crises brought about by in many cases people who sought to destroy the system. That is to say: some of Weimar's problems were essentially not existential or external but entirely caused by people who sought the destruction of the government and upending of the liberal order. Weirmar had crises, sure, but it had domestic enemies. Like your theory in a nutshell is "things are going well right now, we might fade this." But remember Bannon and then by extension Trump et al have a very explicit goal to see to it the prevailing order is destroyed. That is: they have the power to make things not go well. If our hope for the future rests on current prosperity and peace and you are led by people who want to systemically dismantle the status quo, I'm not sure we can comfort ourselves in the realities of the status quo.
So the perception of Weimar as a state in perpetual crisis is one part factual -- no one would argue 1930s Germany was utopia, the fallout from WWI and the Great Depression was real obviously. But some of it was entirely fictional. Perceived crises. And some of it was intentionally wrought -- political mob violence and division intentionally baked into the system by fascists and others.
So of course we are in many ways, empirically -- we are not on the verge of a systemic crisis. But 1933 wasn't exactly Germany's generational low point either. The preceding 15 years from the end of the Great War through the mid 30s were in many ways more traumatic. What spurned he growth of right-wing authoritarianism was as much perception as reality, as much the will and designs and failures of actors as a fait accompli driven by GDP and violent crime rates. And we unfortunately seem to have two of the components in the mix now: reality be damned, we are surrounded by people who are afraid, paranoid, angry, resentful and see the world on the edge of a crisis and cannot be convinced otherwise. And we have plenty of actors at the highest levels of government now who both want to perpetuate that feeling of fear and grievance, and potentially act to erode the system and entertain the risk of a crisis. If not introduce it themselves.
Civilization is inherently frail, so it is perhaps fair enough to say we are always Weimar and in the tumult and mosaic of the human condition forever rests the potential for existential crisis and a lurch to authoritarian solutions. But I do believe you are not factoring in the very real ways we are much closer to crisis than UE6 suggests, if only because
so many believe it.
Last edited by DVaut1; 02-24-2017 at 05:04 AM.