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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

02-17-2017 , 03:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
It's been awhile but Reagan in 76, Ted Kennedy in 80, and Buchanan in 92, were serious challenges.
So, the proper strat for dems with in 4 years is to register as republicans and all vote in the primary. That would outnumber them but gl with getting enough people to do that.

Last edited by wheatrich; 02-17-2017 at 03:38 AM.
02-17-2017 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
Just like they did at Berkeley?
"In" Berkeley is a lot more accurate than "at" Berkeley because almost all the rioting was off campus and not done by anyone associated with the school.
02-17-2017 , 03:26 AM
02-17-2017 , 03:30 AM
chaffetz might be the most hateable guy in washington right now

at least with trump nobody is surprised by how low he goes...
02-17-2017 , 03:35 AM
Lay offs at the State Dept.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/state-de...g-carried-out/


Oh, and this nugget:

"Not a single State Department official was included in the White House meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner - who has no regional expertise or diplomatic experience - had a greater role in the meeting than the Senate-confirmed secretary of State.

Rex Tillerson was absent Wednesday but did join Kushner and Netanyahu for dinner the night before. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Tom Shannon was on the official schedule to take his place but was then shut out of the White House meeting."
02-17-2017 , 03:36 AM
Nice piece of red meat for the base. It may look like our guy is jumping the shark, but never forget Hillary Clinton had the emails.
02-17-2017 , 03:44 AM
These (non military) career officers have to realize that almost none of them are gonna be around in april.

Last edited by wheatrich; 02-17-2017 at 03:50 AM.
02-17-2017 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
In the event of Trump somehow surviving a full term I wonder if Kasich will primary him. He has been keeping a low profile recently but I see he will be on Tapper's Sunday show from Munich.
You've got to think somebody would primary him if he survives it... I'd say the profile would be:

1. Good name recognition and/or prior runs

2. Currently not holding elected office

3. No plans to run for the White House again in a future "clean" primary

I think Romney is more likely than Kasich, who's still in office as Governor of Ohio and could conceivably run for President in 2024 at the age of 71.

I'm not sure who else would fit that profile... Jeb? Jindal?

I suppose you could scrap the profile if his approval ratings within the party dropped below 50%... Then maybe someone like Rubio or Cruz goes for it.

The problem is, if you're gaming out scenarios as a Republican considering the run, you have to expect that if you beat him he runs third party and splits the conservative vote anyway... So for someone like Paul Ryan, it makes more sense to wait.
02-17-2017 , 04:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RV Life
LOL yea I can see a guy like Cuban doing it just to troll Trump and moving on with his life regardless of the outcome.

He wins, he gets to laugh at Trump.

He loses, he gets to laugh at Trump anyway.
He wins, he gets to laugh at Trump.

He loses, he gets to run 3rd party, sink Trump, and laugh at him.
02-17-2017 , 04:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RV Life
LOL yea I can see a guy like Cuban doing it just to troll Trump and moving on with his life regardless of the outcome.

He wins, he gets to laugh at Trump.

He loses, he gets to laugh at Trump anyway.
It's been less than a month and tensions have run so high

In some scenario where Trump lasts a full term, there is no scenario where he doesn't become President for life

I say that as a Trump supporter who struggles to imagine him lasting a year but in the (hopeful) scenario where he makes it to 4 years, he's in for life

With all the drama, he's effectively already been in for a year+. 4 actual years from now and he's in for good
02-17-2017 , 04:32 AM
Why are you hopeful that he would install himself as President for life?
02-17-2017 , 04:57 AM
Yea wtf? Nothing like casually wishing for the end of democracy.
02-17-2017 , 05:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hard2tel
Yea wtf? Nothing like casually wishing for the end of democracy.

It has failed. Some of us are doing a lot more than wishing it away.
02-17-2017 , 05:14 AM
ah yes a dictatorship with trump at the head of it

how bad could it be
02-17-2017 , 05:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losing all
It has failed. Some of us are doing a lot more than wishing it away.
How does the failure of democracy compare to the historical failure of dictatorship, which is the proposed alternative? What is your metric for the failure of American democracy? I have a good example in mind, but somehow I doubt you will use it.

Followup: What are you doing aside from posting BobBarker.jpg and using internet anonymity to suggest that you will gun down NYC libs?
02-17-2017 , 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanGuy
The right-wing party is back to polling in the single digits in some polls and Merkel is in serious trouble of being ousted by a center-left coalition, so no:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017
It's weird, I'm almost starting to feel proud to be a German. We obviously do have many people with right-ish tendencies here, some of my old friends even have them. You can still reach them with "C'mon that ****'s ridiculous and you know it" though, unlike Trumpkins.

For example a friend confided in me that he now agrees with me that "Gutmensch" (the German version of SJW) is a meaningless concept only there to harm, whereas before he defended its use "for all the guys who only act good because they want to look good for".

I think Trump being so ridiculous actually helped the center / left a lot - the AFDs natural instinct has to be to align themselves with Trump over their shared "values" but he's making it impossible and isn't helping to normalize their views at all, more like the opposite.
02-17-2017 , 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Europa
It's weird, I'm almost starting to feel proud to be a German. We obviously do have many people with right-ish tendencies here, some of my old friends even have them. You can still reach them with "C'mon that ****'s ridiculous and you know it" though, unlike Trumpkins.

For example a friend confided in me that he now agrees with me that "Gutmensch" (the German version of SJW) is a meaningless concept only there to harm, whereas before he defended its use "for all the guys who only act good because they want to look good for".

I think Trump being so ridiculous actually helped the center / left a lot - the AFDs natural instinct has to be to align themselves with Trump over their shared "values" but he's making it impossible and isn't helping to normalize their views at all, more like the opposite.
I'd imagine your history makes it less likely you'd elect someone like Trump, though, right? (I know little about current German politics beyond Merkel, if I'm being honest.)

To some extent, the majority of a population is only going to know their own experiences and to some degree their parents/grandparents experiences. I think a huge percentage of the American electorate thought, and still thinks, that our democratic republic is indestructible, whereas a lot of people in Europe understand that's not the case due to being only a couple generations removed from a wave of fascism.

So basically, way too many people in the US laughed off Trump's rhetoric, and while there has been a hard-right movement in some European countries with varying degrees of success, I feel like it's meeting more resistance - especially in countries that fell victim to fascism within the last 80 years... Are my feelings/assumptions on this correct?
02-17-2017 , 05:28 AM
I doubt anyone like Trump could be elected anywhere except in africa... well maybe the philippines got one of those too
02-17-2017 , 05:52 AM
After watching that press conference I'd be surprised if he makes it to 6 months.
02-17-2017 , 05:53 AM
Getting FOX to turn on you is pretty impressive stuff.
02-17-2017 , 06:03 AM
House Republicans just waiting for ironclad grounds to impeach so they can plead "we had no choice". Thus avoiding the wrath of the populist right that Trump brought to the Party.

And don't underestimate the radical agenda Pence, Ryan and a Republican Congress could pull off. Throw in a continued healthy economy (much to their shock and surprise), they could even expand their margins in 2018 and 2020.

Cynically, the Democrats will probably be better off if Trump flounders until the 2018 elections so they can run against him.
02-17-2017 , 06:09 AM
3 possibilities for Fox turn:
1) New ownership, new direction (Murdoch kids and no Ailes)
2) Actually appalled by Trump and his incompetence.
3) Prefer Pence and establishment to Trump

/
Takes off his robe and tin foil hat
02-17-2017 , 06:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
I'd imagine your history makes it less likely you'd elect someone like Trump, though, right? (I know little about current German politics beyond Merkel, if I'm being honest.)

To some extent, the majority of a population is only going to know their own experiences and to some degree their parents/grandparents experiences. I think a huge percentage of the American electorate thought, and still thinks, that our democratic republic is indestructible, whereas a lot of people in Europe understand that's not the case due to being only a couple generations removed from a wave of fascism.

So basically, way too many people in the US laughed off Trump's rhetoric, and while there has been a hard-right movement in some European countries with varying degrees of success, I feel like it's meeting more resistance - especially in countries that fell victim to fascism within the last 80 years... Are my feelings/assumptions on this correct?
I think there are lots of European countries where politicians with Trump-like rhetoric are polling in the 20-30% range or even higher. Le Pen in France, Wilders in the Netherlands, Hofer and the FPÖ in Austria and in Poland and Hungary this is even true for the governments. Although I have to admit the rhetoric is similar, but they mostly seem far less buffoonish (except for Wilders, maybe).

I don't think Germany is such a special case because of it's history. If we had had the refugee crisis fifteen years ago, I think things would have been much different here, especially concerning the ruling party CDU, but the social democrats would also have been much more torn on this issue, I guess. In case anyonw around here is from Germany and old enough to remember politicians like Roland Koch, Friedrich Merz and even Jürgen Rüttgers, a government run by these guys would make for a very different reaction to the refugee crisis and if anyone remembers the "Kinder statt Inder"-campaign of 2000 you also know that the population in Germany isn't immune to xenophobia.

I think what does make Germany different is a range of factors. A conservative party lead by Merkel, reacting the way she did in the refugee crisis, the history of Nazi-Germany, positive experiences with foreigners like the "guest worker program" from the 60s or students doing semesters abroad.

Still Germany is not immune to right-wing tendencies.
02-17-2017 , 06:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanGuy
Still Germany is not immune to right-wing tendencies.
I did not know comedy had made it's way to Germany

Spoiler:


(3rd generation American, 75% German descent here)
02-17-2017 , 06:55 AM
Well, I was talking about today and the foreseeable future, but I can see how that might be lol-inducing



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