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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

05-11-2018 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus

https://twitter.com/axios/status/995031102845833216
Not sure how a 1% to 2% gain is at all newsworthy.
05-11-2018 , 04:40 PM
Even if it worked and it was moral if employed under limited circumstances it should still be illegal because in practice it would be used in the way it is actually used right now in reality. Interrogators would want names and the tortured people would give them names. Those people would end up tortured and would name other people. Torturors get medals, promotions, bonuses and their funding gets increased. For instance they might get promoted to be Director of the CIA.
05-11-2018 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
That's assuming we don't cave at the threat.
Pairing a significant reward to providing accurate intel before negative reinforcement stuff commences would also be advisable as a way to get what you need ASAP IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
The reason not to do it isn't because it wont work.
Yeah decent time for a disclaimer from me that I'm discussing efficacy only because it's the part I find interesting ATM, NOT because I'm necessarily pro-torture or disregard the morality issues as being trivial or something.
05-11-2018 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Even if it worked and it was moral if employed under limited circumstances it should still be illegal because in practice it would be used in the way it is actually used right now in reality. Interrogators would want names and the tortured people would give them names. Those people would end up tortured and would name other people. Torturors get medals, promotions, bonuses and their funding gets increased.
I don't deny this, could very well be the case.

Just had issue with "torture doesn't work" as a general truth to be accepted. Think the same reasons I buckle my seatbelt (...to get the annoying chimes to stop!) exemplify how torture could work in certain intel-gathering contexts.
05-11-2018 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
If you hid a guitar pick somewhere and I wanted to find it, why wouldn't you tell me where it was if my steadily worsening negative reinforcement / promise of extreme punishment strategy was employed?

Maybe I don't get how we're defining "doesn't work". Like doesn't work better than X ethically superior alternative? That could easily be true and hopefully is.
Is this a regular guitar pick or the Pick of Destiny?
05-11-2018 , 04:43 PM
Great discussion we've got going here. You've got to love the old, "I feel like torture must work, especially my fool-proof methods, therefore it must work. **** your research/statistics!"

Then again, that's basically the 2018 conservative position on a bunch of issues...
05-11-2018 , 04:48 PM
[QUOTE=Kevin J;53816341]
Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
Huge caveat is the need to know that your target actually has

Because if not, it's a great way to get misinformation. And if that's true, then why wouldn't a legit target also lie?
Uh, cuz then you're going to torture them more?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kerowo
What sources are you going to cite to prove that a little torture works but regular torture doesn't?

Threatening to do more harm later IS torture too...
Seems pretty likely to work in those circumstances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Dude, you should alert the CIA right away to your foolproof system. Those schmucks who say torture doesn't work will have their minds ****ing BLOWN.
See above; pretty sure not too many people think it doesn't work in those specific circumstances.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Doesn't make it remotely ok. The reason not to do it isn't because it wont work.
I mean torturing a terrorist to save lives is obviously okay in the limited situations in which it would be effective.

The other situations were bad because they were ineffective. Those people got bad "evidence", wasting American time and resources, and opened America up to embarrassment to boot..
05-11-2018 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
Great discussion we've got going here. You've got to love the old, "I feel like torture must work, especially my fool-proof methods, therefore it must work. **** your research/statistics!"

Then again, that's basically the 2018 conservative position on a bunch of issues...
I mean I'm talking about specific contexts where my understanding of operant conditioning suggests we'd see results that'd disprove blanket "Torture doesn't work" statements.

Look at my guitar pick example and plug in more realistic circumstances that fit my conditions then tell me why or how it would yield results no more desirable than merely requesting the info with a single verbal prompt or whatever the control scenario would look like.
05-11-2018 , 04:58 PM
Anyway that's it for me on the subject, bowing out and back to lurking.
05-11-2018 , 05:09 PM

https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/sta...44760409829376

(Rando public corruption update.)
05-11-2018 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
"...could be" and "...seems like" are me deliberately using tentative language. These are things I'm uncertain of that I'm assuming could be true based on my understanding of human behavior. If theoretical discussion like this isn't welcome ITF I'll stop; I'll laugh since it's warmly embraced if it softly promotes liberal positions, but I'll stop because I don't want to catch a ban.

...which coincidentally kinda demonstrates my point? If you know with high certainty that your target knows what you need to know, and what you need to know satisfies my other requirements outlined above, then why isn't what amounts to negative reinforcement a viable option to get a desired behavioral result? Especially when tied to promises of extreme punishment if lied to.
If you want to cherry pick the one situation where torture could work to try and disprove the evidence that torture, in fact, doesn't work go ahead. It will be just like an episode of 24!

In the real world where you don't know any of the things you are presupposing torture doesn't work, do you agree with that?
05-11-2018 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
So, two separate women come to rando hack lawyer with allegations against Schneiderman, and instead of pursuing the matter as part of a civil or criminal suit, he informs a tabloid reporter, who doesn't do a story but suggests that they tell Michael Cohen and Donald Trump, which the lawyer proceeds to do? And he provides Cohen their actual names and now seeks that these names be prevented from disclosure in relation to Choen's seized materials without legal basis or any apparent request from the woman that their names be prevented from disclosure? Sure, buddy. At best this guy is trying to cover his ass for some crime or conspiracy he engaged in with Cohen.
If this is mostly correct, I'm going to be surprised if this doesn't get more attention. Of course I need the disclaimer here about who knows WTF is going to be a big story these days with all the **** these guys do. This seems like a totally unacceptable unfolding of events for a women who confidentially approaches a lawyer with her story of assault/sexual assault, like a nightmare. Who knows, in NYC a woman in this situation might even specifically ask, "You're not going to do anything crazy, like tell a tabloid or, heaven forbid, some massive waterhead ****wind like Donald Trump are you?"

Unrelated, what is this thing? It's perfect, Pence as Ghoul. I'm guessing it's from a movie but I can't remember ever seeing it:

05-11-2018 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
If it's fairly quickly verifiable then a 'legit target' has very good reason not to lie.
So we're talking about at least a parlay and maybe a round robin.

a). The target must possess the info needed

b). The info must be immediately verifiable, and

c). The target is not capable of withstanding extreme torture

You can always find exceptions that can be morally rationalized from a subjective viewpoint. But unless a,b,c can all be verified as at least 1., I don't think the practice of torture even makes strategical sense. And I say this knowing full well DS will chime in with: If each criteria had a 90% chance of being true and it could save a major city from nuclear annihilation... In that case, make exceptions as was suggested above and pardon people. It's no reason to legalize torture imo.
05-11-2018 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
I mean I'm talking about specific contexts where my understanding of operant conditioning suggests we'd see results that'd disprove blanket "Torture doesn't work" statements.
The only specific contexts where it might be morally/logically correct were explained quite well by microbet and his take is good, so re-read that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
Look at my guitar pick example and plug in more realistic circumstances that fit my conditions then tell me why or how it would yield results no more desirable than merely requesting the info with a single verbal prompt or whatever the control scenario would look like.
The control scenario is a skilled interrogator carrying out an interrogation without "enhanced techniques" aka torture. Look at the Senate report from a few years ago, this is a solved issue. Torture doesn't work as a means to gain information.

If you're pro torture, the only reason given the evidence we have is a desire to make other human beings suffer. No matter how evil they are, the United States must be better than that.
05-11-2018 , 05:14 PM
Someone explain this Cohen/Trump/Schneiderman thing to me, I don't get it
05-11-2018 , 05:16 PM
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...768425477?s=19

In what universe does "The American People" mean like 9% of Americans? Don't answer, it's obviously Trump's universe.

Even most Republican Trumpists do better off with Obamacare than with whatever the GOP has been trying to push, or worse, a straight up repeal alone. They just don't like the Obama part of the name, as proven when last year's idiots were saying they hate Obamacare but don't mind the Affordable Care Act.
05-11-2018 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
Even most Republican Trumpists do better off with Obamacare than with whatever the GOP has been trying to push, or worse, a straight up repeal alone. They just don't like the Obama part of the name, as proven when last year's idiots were saying they hate Obamacare but don't mind the Affordable Care Act.
It was such a massive error to let the GOP brand it Obamacare... There was so little, if any, push back from Democrats on that. They seemed to think it was going to be a good way to take a victory lap, and grossly underestimated the right wings hatred for Obama - which should have been obvious by the time Obamacare was being passed. I remember thinking that at the time, and avoided calling it that myself in arguments sometimes, but the Dems were just freaking clueless to that branding issue. Obama included.
05-11-2018 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirOsis
Unrelated, what is this thing? It's perfect, Pence as Ghoul. I'm guessing it's from a movie but I can't remember ever seeing it:

It's from Cocoon.
05-11-2018 , 05:23 PM
If this schneiderman ordeal turns out to actually be tied to Cohen/Trump, it's more ludicrous than the reveal of Hannity as the third client.
05-11-2018 , 05:24 PM
I would say that threatening a school shooter with death in order to get the shooter to drop his weapon is perfectly acceptable.

Is there a moral difference between the above situation and threatening a suspect in custody that has planted a ticking explosive, with death?

One difference would be that the evidence of guilt in case A is much more apparent. While mistakes can still be made in case A, the error rate is much lower than case B.

Given the many cases of coerced confessions and confessions under duress all over the world, I would be very hesitant to test the limits of what counts as incontrovertible evidence in case B. Opening up to allow torture is way too likely to lead to abuse.
05-11-2018 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LFS
It's from Cocoon.
Thanks. I think I've actually seen that but don't remember that thing. Pence is 4500 years old and plays pinochle with Beetus Brimley.
05-11-2018 , 05:28 PM
Question: When is Trump most dangerous, when he gets what he wants and tries to gain as much money and power at the expense of the country or when the pressure is on and he's backed into a corner over his crimes and infractions?

There's definitely a happy medium to resistance, but I do struggle with the above question because it seems he'll be the most volatile and capable of scorching the Earth when he runs out of protective moves and faces destruction for himself or his family.

Should we really throw the book at him and watch him REALLY fight back by any means necessary, or do we pick our battles and ignore some big offenses?

And it's not just us, but the same goes for Mueller and other investigators. I wonder how much "ticking time bomb" consideration is given to the situation.
05-11-2018 , 05:32 PM
It's been said so many times but I want to get mine in once: Michael Cohen is the worst lawyer I've ever seen.
05-11-2018 , 05:35 PM
I am of the opinion that he is most dangerous when backed in to a corner simply for the fact that most people are more dangerous when backed in to a corner.

Take any dictator considered dangerous in the world. Say Kim. If there was a legitimate 50% chance of having him leave office in 3 years, there is no way you consider deposing him, right?
05-11-2018 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...768425477?s=19
"We will not rest until the job is done!" he says, on day 476 of his Presidency.

      
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