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Originally Posted by Paul McSwizzle
.In sum - yeah it's bad and we are right to fear direct attacks on voting rights, but the optimist in me replies that the egregiousness of this takeover has awoken and mobilized the young in a way that could significantly change the map.
I'm optimistic about this too. A couple reasons: Trump doesn't have 40% of voters locked up. In terms of eligible voters he had 27%, a lot of those were anti-Hillary, and I expect more Trump voters to leave his camp than to join, even considering the fact that a lot of his voters will never leave his camp no matter what he does. Second, I'm cautiously optimistic that we won't straight up ban massive numbers of Democratic leaning voters. Ramp up suppression techniques that depress turnout, sure, but there's a limit to how much of that you can get away with. Those who understand statistics (like most of this forum) understand that these techniques ultimately have the effect of giving Republicans an x% advantage, which is enough to win swing states that otherwise would have been lost. But that same line of thinking should lead you to believe that a Democratic candidate that excites voters and 4 years of a disastrous Trump presidency will likely lead to a Democratic advantage that more than makes up for the suppressed votes.
This is all dependent on the Democratic party selecting a candidate that can actually encourage turnout and most of our democracy surviving the next 4 years, neither of which are locks, but if those two conditions are met I wouldn't expect Trump to win in 2020.