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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

02-05-2017 , 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
Here's something to contemplate. Exactly one week ago this time all sorts of people were all up in arms about the ban EO, it really felt like a big time political crisis. But now it has passed into just another thing that happened in the past, and there is not much talk about it. This is a long game and it needs to be played that way. The Trump group is not going to fall apart overnight. They can do the most outrageous things and yet that too will pass into a distant memory quicker than you think.
Wat? It didn't pass at all. I just called my representative yesterday complaining about it, among other things. Before that I protested it with hundreds of others in a red county in a red state. And even now it's making headlines as it's fought in court. No one's letting this one go.
02-05-2017 , 07:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
I guess this still has legal legs but it's going to be 'holding breath time' if he actually loses. A rant is inevitable but what will he actually do?

Part of the problem now is we have to remind ourselves that this **** is really serious and not just an awesome version of House of Cards.
This was just requesting the appeals court to block the lower court before the appeals briefs had been filed. This is a rarely filed and rarely granted motion. Briefing has been ordered to be filed by 3pm PST on Monday. Probably have a decision by Friday.

Poster above has said this has been forgotten, it hasn't. The heat has dissipated some, but it's still a fresh wound, and there are more to come. It's made the WH look stupid, taken a bite out of Bannon, altered the EO process going forward, and radicalized a bunch of nonvoters and even some Trump voters.
02-05-2017 , 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtd353
good article. the cognitive dissonance from the liberals on this forum is astounding. they convinced themselves back in July that bernie was going to cost hillary the election, and they still believe that to this day she lost because of bernie. nevermind the fact that she had a double digit lead with less than six weeks to go, no amount of facts or logic will get them to stray from their initial hypothesis of hillary losing the election because of bernie and his bros.
Sick strawman bro. Can you cite three liberal posters who harp on these points? Hell can you cite one? I cant think of any.
02-05-2017 , 07:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Sick strawman bro. Can you cite three liberal posters who harp on these points? Hell can you cite one? I cant think of any.
thats because you only hear the things you want to hear. the way bernie has been treated by liberals on this forum is a disgrace.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul D
No, actually the only idiocy here is from you reverting to childish insults. You banging away at the keyboard and flushing any responsibility down the toilet months later. That's real grown up.

You guys helped set the tone for the general election. I'm sure Karl Rove was laughing somewhere in private watching it. If you can't hang up the gloves and actually take a look at your own self in the mirror (and to spell it out for you since you obviously personalize everything I'm not specifically talking about you but your entire camp) and realize that Trump is in office partially because the tar and feathering that went on during the primary and after the primary.... you truly deserve Trump no matter if you voted against him.

If Booker somehow gets himself on the ticket in 4 years we will see the same **** over again.
02-05-2017 , 07:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
This was just requesting the appeals court to block the lower court before the appeals briefs had been filed. This is a rarely filed and rarely granted motion. Briefing has been ordered to be filed by 3pm PST on Monday. Probably have a decision by Friday.
Thanks. I was getting very confused as after posting that the appeals court had refused the appeal, the BBC were also reporting that the appeal was going ahead. Makes a lot more sense now
02-05-2017 , 07:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Quote:
Here's something to contemplate. Exactly one week ago this time all sorts of people were all up in arms about the ban EO, it really felt like a big time political crisis. But now it has passed into just another thing that happened in the past, and there is not much talk about it. This is a long game and it needs to be played that way. The Trump group is not going to fall apart overnight. They can do the most outrageous things and yet that too will pass into a distant memory quicker than you think.
Wat? It didn't pass at all. I just called my representative yesterday complaining about it, among other things. Before that I protested it with hundreds of others in a red county in a red state. And even now it's making headlines as it's fought in court. No one's letting this one go.
A small number of you are still involved but to the general public things have moved on, to new stories of the day. If it were a true political crisis we wouldn't have moved on. It has the feel of a hyped up controversy and has faded fast from our attention.
02-05-2017 , 08:03 AM
02-05-2017 , 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
A small number of you are still involved but to the general public things have moved on, to new stories of the day. If it were a true political crisis we wouldn't have moved on. It has the feel of a hyped up controversy and has faded fast from our attention.
We need to keep the pressure on. People are showing up to Town Halls and protesting all over the country. We can't let up. So do what you can to get the message out there every day.

http://saintpetersblog.com/gus-bilir...-hall-meeting/
Quote:
In the summer of 2009, Democrats heard angrily from Tea Party members about the Affordable Care Act, which President Obama ultimately signed into law in 2010.

Eight years later, it appears Republicans are facing similar heat at their town halls when it comes to repealing the ACA.

02-05-2017 , 08:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
A small number of you are still involved but to the general public things have moved on, to new stories of the day. If it were a true political crisis we wouldn't have moved on. It has the feel of a hyped up controversy and has faded fast from our attention.
The ban is currently the top story on NYT, WaPo, CNN, and even FoxNews. Idk where this notion is coming from.
02-05-2017 , 08:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Autocratic
I've been meaning to post something along these lines for a bit, and LordJVK reminded me:

It is important for liberals to understand how wrong the perspective that the left is currently "overreacting" to Trump is just in terms of what works politically. It's crazy that it can even be a discussion after the last 8 years.

I see my liberal friends posting that if we react strongly to EVERY Trump outrage, it diminishes our ability to protest when he does something reallllly bad. This is flatly wrong.

The Outrage Machine has propelled fringe, conspiratorial conservative politics into a position of dominance on Capitol Hill. If you talked to a Trump supporter before the election, it might strike you how few of the things they talked about were events you had even heard of. Huge percentages of their discourse was nonsense that you had to be in the conservative bubble to even hear about. Clinton murder conspiracies, Obama secretly being gay, etc. But those bull**** stories aggregated to create a feeling among those people that this was the apocalypse. Liberals were upending an established order and replacing it with their own, where gender isn't real and pedophilia is totes natural and sharia law is right around the corner.

That outrage machine sustained itself for 8 years and kept the base motivated. They continuously put fringey idiots into power because of it, and it culminated with Trump. Continuous, all-consuming outrage works, and the Democrats should be feeding into it to mobilize their notoriously finicky base.
This is absolutely true. I think it's the correct play for the left writ large now. In fact in the age of Trump, it's almost a solemn patriotic duty to stay outraged and do everything we can to keep allies outraged, energized, and willing to resist.

And still. This energy is really hard to constructively manage. It's on the lower tier of movement building principles, certainly a lower order of governing principles. In the tumult of the moment we have no choice. I think it's highly effective as we've seen on the right, but the outcomes to the conservative movement allowing it to fester are manifest: they almost literally can't ****ing govern effectively because the entire movement is grievance and outrage. Key word is effectively. They are now governing. But in a moment of basically minority rule with no popular consensus and they are completely, totally bereft of ideas on how to build it.

Consider that here we stand at apex of the right-wing outrage machine, and its movement leaders are guys like Bannon and Milo. Totally empty shirt trolls with one trick to simply troll people and get them angry.

Don't get me wrong -- I am not predicting sunshine for the immediate future. The right-wing movement, fueled exclusively by anger and outrage -- it will have victories in the next few years. They will certainly grift. They will roll back consumer, environmental, and labor protections. They will harm immigrants, blacks, voting rights. They might get that war porn bloodlust in the streets or in Iran or whatever they so deeply crave, with the sight of cops beating protestors or waging war in Iran.

But none of this is popular. They haven't built anything made to last. This is a particularly trenchant criticism of Obama and it's valid: by circumventing the dysfunctional Congress and relying on executive power to achieve legislative outcomes, it's all open to almost immediate erosion.

The same measures of political dysfunction on the right are present such that almost none of what Trump is doing has permanence, outside of the immediate gratification for his supporters and pain for the victims of his policies. The GOP can't even get their **** together to replace Obamacare; all their side has is outrage and fictions, but they face a stark reality that rolling back coverage and care for people is going to turn the outrage and anger on them. It's the result of a generation where any notions of political compromise and pluralism that governs healthy political systems have been degraded and eroded, so their base wants these irrational, nonsensical outcomes like removing Obamacare but preserving the ACA. They want to instigate trade wars but they want cheap technology and jobs. They want manufacturing jobs in the American hinterlands, supply chain economics are for the Chinese to figure out we guess. They want a wall to stop immigrants and they expect Mexico to pay for it. They've been conditioned for a generation that this sort nonsensical ordering of the world is normal and OK. GOP can't solve any of this easily.

Consider one of the genuinely alarming and destructive things Reagan did to the American political culture is entrench a bunch of right wing ideas because was extremely popular. When you think of leaders and movements that made enduring, lasting achievements in our political culture, it is people like Teddy Roosevelt and his impassioned arguments for progressivism and conservation building the National Parks system, FDR and the New Deal, and then Reagan and the Chicago Boys rolling it back. But they did it with popular consensus. Trump and the modern right are extremely dangerous but their outrage-fueled mayhem means they've not built any political capital for any of this. All they've got is mouth-breathing and anxiety and grievance. I get that Trump breaks all the rules but at some point, political gravity will catch up with them or they'll lose or just have to turn to out-and-out-force. I shudder at the thought of that and the immense human suffering that it might entail, but we can respect the human order enough to know turning to drastic autocratic measures are the least durable forms of consensus building.

It's not the left doesn't have this mindset and look where we are in some quarters: Trump is destroying the modern democratic order and some dude less than 10 posts above is still nursing some wounds about "the way Bernie has been treated by liberals on this forum is a disgrace." We can treat him as a microcosm of the kind of product the Outrage Machines churn out on the production lines, really the only thing they offer: a guy scouring the internet desperate to find someone who has victimized him while the world devolves around him. Not healthy. They're useful to build up an army of this type of person to oppose Trump but the long-term political value of this hard to control and channel into producing long term, durable benefits. It's an extremely useful mindset for Bannon types who just want to destroy the dominant order of the world but hard to draw into constructive governance.

So in the end: let's at least admit that the tact we're taking here is a bit of a Faustian bargain, that a political movement which turns itself over to manufacturing grievance and outrage can be both highly effective but that unchecked and unmoored from delivering outcomes beyond beating back opponents, it ultimately results in the modern right-wing -- beholden to constant titillation and manufacturing threats from the outside to sustain activity. I think it's our duty to do it now but it's a dangerous game.

Last edited by DVaut1; 02-05-2017 at 08:37 AM.
02-05-2017 , 08:19 AM
The so-called president's E.O. calling for mass deportations would target 8 million people according to calculations by experts.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-n...204-story.html
Quote:
When President Trump ordered a vast overhaul of immigration law enforcement during his first week in office, he stripped away most restrictions on who should be deported, opening the door for roundups and detentions on a scale not seen in nearly a decade.

Up to 8 million people in the country illegally could be considered priorities for deportation, according to calculations by the Los Angeles Times. They were based on interviews with experts who studied the order and two internal documents that signal immigration officials are taking an expansive view of Trump’s directive.

Far from targeting only “bad hombres,” as Trump has said repeatedly, his new order allows immigration agents to detain nearly anyone they come in contact with who has crossed the border illegally. People could be booked into custody for using food stamps or if their child receives free school lunches.

The deportation targets are a much larger group than those swept up in the travel bans that sowed chaos at airports and seized public attention over the past week. Fewer than 1 million people came to the U.S. over the past decade from the seven countries from which most visitors are temporarily blocked.

Deportations of this scale, which has not been publicly totaled before, could have widely felt consequences: Families would be separated. Businesses catering to immigrant customers may be shuttered. Crops could be left to rot, unpicked, as agricultural and other industries that rely on immigrant workforces face labor shortages. U.S. relations could be strained with countries that stand to receive an influx of deported people, particularly in Latin America. Even the Social Security system, which many immigrants working illegally pay into under fake identification numbers, would take a hit.
02-05-2017 , 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtd353
thats because you only hear the things you want to hear. the way bernie has been treated by liberals on this forum is a disgrace.
Lol and the other two? Paul D from two weeks ago and who else? You characterized the "liberals on this forum" as fixated beyond reason on Bernie ruining HRC's victory, and you only got one old example from an argument Paul D was having with other liberals on this forum (I guess they dont count for... reasons). This level of concern trolling will not make America great again. You have to step it up.
02-05-2017 , 08:25 AM
Quote:
So in the end: let's at least admit that the tact we're taking here is a bit of a Faustian bargain, that a political movement which turns itself over to manufacturing grievance and outrage can be both highly effective but that unchecked and unmoored from delivering outcomes beyond beating back opponents, it ultimately results in the modern right-wing -- beholden to constant titillation and manufacturing threats from the outside to sustain activity. I think it's our duty to do it now but it's a dangerous game.
This isn't manufactured grievance or outrage, this is stuff that genuinely deserves outrage. That's the fundamental difference between the outrage elements on both sides. Our grievances are both true and popular.
02-05-2017 , 08:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
A small number of you are still involved but to the general public things have moved on, to new stories of the day. If it were a true political crisis we wouldn't have moved on. It has the feel of a hyped up controversy and has faded fast from our attention.
can we ban this guy? Clearly propaganda troll

It's not even the biggest news in the USA, it's the leading story in most of the whole world.
02-05-2017 , 08:33 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...KBN15K09O?il=0

We literally have a president who is just reading his twitter and facebook and uses that as his source for news.
02-05-2017 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...KBN15K09O?il=0

We literally have a president who is just reading his twitter and facebook and uses that as his source for news.
Truly a man of the deplorables.... err, people
02-05-2017 , 08:46 AM
The original story Trump shared on his Facebook-page (it's still up on his FB btw, just keep scrolling down he posts a lot): http://www.albawaba.com/editorchoice...untries-932174

Albawaba published a "correction" article after Kuweit denied the story:
http://www.albawaba.com/news/kuwait-...d-trump-933736

According to Albawaba the story originated on TheNewArab: https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/ne...rity-countries

TheNewArab appears to be a Qatar-propaganda newspaper that aims to destabilize Aljazeera's influence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Araby_Al-Jadeed

Thisisfine.jpeg
02-05-2017 , 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
This isn't manufactured grievance or outrage, this is stuff that genuinely deserves outrage. That's the fundamental difference between the outrage elements on both sides. Our grievances are both true and popular.
Sure. And everyone should remain outraged. I'm not asking anyone to stand down. Particularly when the grievances are real and justified.

I'm responding to this:

Quote:
The Outrage Machine has propelled fringe, conspiratorial conservative politics into a position of dominance on Capitol Hill.
Quote:
That outrage machine sustained itself for 8 years and kept the base motivated. They continuously put fringey idiots into power because of it, and it culminated with Trump. Continuous, all-consuming outrage works, and the Democrats should be feeding into it to mobilize their notoriously finicky base.
My point: exactly. That sort of mindset where we say -- look how effective grievance politics is! And outrage! But remember the result!: It propelled conspiratorial fringe angry morons into power when the elites lost control of it. Because it's admittedly hard to control, hard to beat back once you start. It's like cheap zero interest rate credit from the Fed. Once you start quantitative easing, it's hard to get back to normal where you don't have to do it.

I'm not saying it's a prima facie bad idea but you have to guard against it. It should be used as an option of last resort. Of course for now in the Trump Era, I readily concede true patriotism is to be outraged and resist this. But we need to be mindful this isn't healthy or desirable long-term politics or movement building to sustain and fuel itself only on outrage. Maybe this is a cautionary tale for some other reality that isn't the present one, some other day that isn't this one, staring down Trump against a public that is still too listless.

But you can imagine a bunch of Republicans, cosmopolitan business and thought leaders of the 1960s and 1970s right-wing era politics having this same conversation and deciding that harnessing the conspiratorial and outrage energy of unreformed Klansmen and the Birchers would be good politics, that what they really needed to do was export it to all working class whites to subvert the New Deal and Great Society programs. It's a complex story with lots of actors but that's more or less what happened, and the modern era right-wing is the result of this Faustian bargain they made like generations ago to build white anger and hostility and resentment for political gain. Sure, our grievances are valid now. But the pressure to collectively retrench to a conspiratorial, angry mindset even after you beat your enemies. Remember the 1960s and 1970s GOP succeeded beyond their wildest dreams; by the 90s even Democrats were lambasting welfare and rolling in free-trade agreements! But you wonder what they might think of 2016 America. Many might approve but I feel like some might second guess.

In either case, anyway: I'm not suggesting we have great choices here but on the whole, it's not a healthy place to be.

Last edited by DVaut1; 02-05-2017 at 08:55 AM.
02-05-2017 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King_of_NYC
Truly a man of the deplorables.... err, people
This is the most worrying development about Trump.

It was not clear during the election whether he was talking down to his core base to get elected or was just genuinely a moron.

There was a rational basis for this belief. If you look at his older interviews from previous decades he comes across as relatively intelligent.

However, since taking office he has not only enacted evil policies, which he said that he would, he has enacted those policies incompetently. This, IMHO is the major difference between him and Obama. Obama did a ton of evil sh**, but he at least did it efficiently.

Trump is just massively out-of-his depth. He is proving himself to be every bit as stupid as he appears.

I am wondering, as was clearly the case with GW Bush who looks surprisingly sharp in pre-presidential footage, whether he has not a) gone senile or b) his mental faculties are being damaged by prescription drugs.
02-05-2017 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Sure. And everyone should remain outraged. I'm not asking anyone to stand down. Particularly when the grievances are real and justified.

I'm responding to this:





My point: exactly. That sort of mindset where we say -- look how effective grievance politics is! And outrage! But remember the result!: It propelled conspiratorial fringe angry morons into power when the elites lost control of it. Because it's admittedly hard to control, hard to beat back once you start. It's like cheap zero interest rate credit from the Fed. Once you start quantitative easing, it's hard to get back to normal where you don't have to do it.

I'm not saying it's a prima facie bad idea but you have to guard against it. It should be used as an option of last resort. Of course for now in the Trump Era, I readily concede true patriotism is to be outraged and resist this. But we need to be mindful this isn't healthy or desirable long-term politics or movement building to sustain and fuel itself only on outrage. Maybe this is a cautionary tale for some other reality that isn't the present one, some other day that isn't this one, staring down Trump against a public that is still too listless.

But you can imagine a bunch of Republicans, cosmopolitan business and thought leaders of the 1960s and 1970s right-wing era politics having this same conversation and deciding that harnessing the conspiratorial and outrage energy of unreformed Klansmen and the Birchers would be good politics, that what they really needed to do was export it to all working class whites to subvert the New Deal and Great Society programs. It's a complex story with lots of actors but that's more or less what happened, and the modern era right-wing is the result of this Faustian bargain they made like generations ago to build white anger and hostility and resentment for political gain. Sure, our grievances are valid now. But the pressure to collectively retrench to a conspiratorial, angry mindset even after you beat your enemies. Remember the 1960s and 1970s GOP succeeded beyond their wildest dreams; by the 90s even Democrats were lambasting welfare and rolling in free-trade agreements! But you wonder what they might think of 2016 America. Many might approve but I feel like some might second guess.

In either case, anyway: I'm not suggesting we have great choices here but on the whole, it's not a healthy place to be.
Yeah I can see what you mean. Basically, we need to present a positive alternative in addition to pointing out and being outraged at the bad things Trump and Republicans do.
02-05-2017 , 09:03 AM
Someone said Bannon looks like that guy from the movies who got bit by a zombie but didn't care to tell anyone lol
02-05-2017 , 09:10 AM
Gonna steal that dvaut post and repost it elsewhere to make myself look good.
02-05-2017 , 09:13 AM
Awaiting dvaut post on Brannon's worldview/psychology. Freash air last week and NY mag article about trying to order Flynn were eye opening. Someone needs to watch Bannon's movies.

Rumors of trump/kushner rift. Definitely Bannon/prebius rift. Spicer eviscerated by Melissa McCarthy on SNL. I put over/under on player protests during SB at 3.

****s weird and it's gonna stay weird for a while. If Pats lose is Trump going to say game was rigged?
02-05-2017 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
Yeah I can see what you mean. Basically, we need to present a positive alternative in addition to pointing out and being outraged at the bad things Trump and Republicans do.
I think so long as the outrage remains focused on matters of substance, doesn't veer into paranoia and conspiracy, and allows for a form of reconstruction post-Trump -- it's fine. And we ultimately will need to consider reconstruction in the same way Lincoln had reconstruction on his mind from around the time the first shots were fired at Bull Run. It's a really hard needle to thread but we need destroy Trump while allowing for a 'big tent' mentality. The party and the movement is going to need to allow for the Sanders wing and the Clinton wing to operate together AND pick up some regretful and reformed Trumpkin types or other concerned old school Republican types in. It can't focus on retribution and closed-loops. Maybe that's the more succinct point here. That a politics focused on outrage and victimization can be effective in opposition but self-limiting in total. Resist, obstruct, and fight hard now but not forget the ultimate goal isn't just to produce outrage and grievance and fear and paranoia but ultimately to govern and get durable, long-lasting results. At some point the modern right turned itself over to outrage and grievance and destruction as an end, not the means. It's understandable when it becomes your modus operandi and rest assured, I am not discounting both the short term gains Bannon-type politics can create nor minimizing the pain we're about to endure. We still to consider the long-view.
02-05-2017 , 09:17 AM
Yeah I agree, great points all around. I think a big part of it is that we need to harness this outrage energy to build a positive network of people who are long-term committed to progressive ideals and causes. Use people's anger and grief about the election as a way of activating them, not just right now, but going forward. For example, can we finally dispel the notion that "both sides are the same"? Getting rid of that alone could potentially get millions of people who don't vote to go out and vote, and we would have a permanent majority if that happened. That needs to be a big part of our messaging but we have to message so many different things at the same time, it's going to be tough.

Edit: If Democrats cooperate with Trump, that will make it much harder to argue this point! We'd better keep the pressure on them not to.

      
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