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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob
There's some results-oriented thinking wrt Putin. If Trump loses, nobody sees Putin as some kind of tactical genius. Instead, we see him as a guy so desperate to destroy America that he latched onto Donald Trump. I don't think we necessarily see him as some kind of idiot but as somebody who tried and failed to crush democracy in America. It's something he's tried to do to other countries with varying degrees of success.
It's kind of like throwing a Hail Mary pass in order to score the game-winning points in the Super Bowl. If you don't complete the pass, oh well you weren't expected to anyway. So it's no big deal. But if you do, all of a sudden you're the greatest QB ever because you led a team to victory in the biggest game of the year when the chances of winning were almost zero.
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What I wonder is what our response would be if Trump lost. Would we thump our chest about how strong and powerful American democracy is? Or would we be concerned about the fragility of it and take the threat of subversion seriously?
Preemptive caveats:
- Vladimir Putin is a very bad person
- He wanted Trump to win and did dirty tricks
- Donald Trump is almost surely covering up various crimes
Those aside.
Everyone, from the New York Times and WaPo to liberal aligned media to Obama to even the Clinton campaign treated Russian-interference stories as just a minor annoyance before the election. Precisely because they assumed they didn't matter much. Any honest Bayesian analysis would factor that. I mean, this is The New Republic, on Election Day:
If Trump Wins, Don't Blame Russia
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If Trump wins tonight, it will be solely the fault of Americans. Holding up Russia as a scapegoat won’t account for the very serious problems that brought us to this point. Even if Clinton wins, it looks like it will be close. And we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves.
That was the correct take, because everyone knew beforehand that most of the supposed effects were penny-ante angle shots.
It's good to factor in new information, so I don't begrudge people who have taken a second look after the election. But even after the election, the Putin-as-super-villain and Crime of the Century stuff is incredibly overblown. The actual actions taken were a bunch of low rent hacks and cheap propaganda manufactured and sold to morons who gleefully lapped it up. Including some members of the Trump family and inner circle apparently. Trump is surely guilty of innumerable scams and many probably involve Russia. But these remain plot points in a refined prequel to Idiocracy, not the maneuvers of a really well written and clever Bond villain.
Hysterical focus on Russia serves the interests of scam artists like Eric Garland and Louise Mensch plying clicks out of desperate liberals, and the retread NeverTrumper right wing coalition, your David Frums and Bill Kristols, who desperately want to take down Trump and return back to the halcyon days when George W. Bush was the moral and intellectual center of the country. I have found the story good for yucks, it's useful as a kludge to distract and obstruct Trump and perhaps ultimately impeach him; and perhaps it could be quite useful to the left as an example of the fragility and pretense of right wing populist nationalism as a front for the collusion of rich oligarchs like Putin and Trump if they ever dared tell a tale that might criticize accumulated wealth and hints at how class warfare is waged internationally. Other than that, it's a pretty transparent post-hoc overreaction.