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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

07-19-2017 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gizmo
Imo unless the girl is like 6, no one cares. Now trump having sex with a boy... that does change things.
Forget the underage Ivanka lookalike. One way to surely lose his base would be playing catcher for an Obama lookalike.
07-19-2017 , 11:21 AM
I guess I don't understand the game for Mensch et al. Are they making money off their tweets somehow? I realize there are plenty of charlatan grifters like Cernovich etc. who make money off e-books and giving talks/seminars and stuff, but is Mensch doing any of that?
07-19-2017 , 11:26 AM
I'm voting trump if he introduces a pet alligator as a White House pet, that is ballin af.
07-19-2017 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
I'm voting trump if he introduces a pet alligator as a White House pet, that is ballin af.
Gotta be a manigator or I'm still voting for his opponent.
07-19-2017 , 11:31 AM
What if it turned out Trump,killed Jon Benet?
07-19-2017 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miajag
I guess I don't understand the game for Mensch et al. Are they making money off their tweets somehow? I realize there are plenty of charlatan grifters like Cernovich etc. who make money off e-books and giving talks/seminars and stuff, but is Mensch doing any of that?
Isn't she in the pundity business and owns a news site? I think the business strategy there is just to collect clicks and follows and assume that some dumb rich whales will want to buy your site(s) because of traffic data and/or some booking agent for a cable news network is unscrupulous and doesn't care how you got your attention and eyeballs.
07-19-2017 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
Here's her list from last night. Keep in mind that it's only partial for the sake of TV time. The list of things Americans have received in return is not partial. No no, that list is complete.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...86597457653762

Definitely scary as hell. Anyone who says this is no big deal or we need to stop talking about Russia is clearly either high out of their mind, or afraid of getting caught.
The political wisdom of heightening public fear of repeal of the Magnitsky Act, an inert State Department, and the fate of diplomatic compounds remains unproven.
07-19-2017 , 11:40 AM
Mangator hacked the dnc?
07-19-2017 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eyebooger



https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...50824515661824
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...54816507408384
Now THAT'S how you get bipartisan support.
07-19-2017 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
Nothing makes sense unless our POTUS is owned to high hell by Russia. Then, everything fits.

Except for GOP. Unless a whole bunch of them are owned too. Then, everything fits again.

This 2nd Putin thing may be bothering me more than it should. I'm pretty shook. I mean, I called for immediate Mueller interviews with Tillerson after the non-secret meeting went almost 2 hours into overtime. But this hidden meeting? Wow!

I'm sure they just talked about pierogies and snow and ****, so whatever. Nothing to do but move on.
Still don't think the bolded is required. Trump is owned, GOP just acting aggressively (and not super-competently) in their own self-interest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
The best was to tell someone who knows little about economics is they keep calling it "real economics".
You clearly don't know **** about Constitutional Economics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
Nate's final model on election day had Trump at 28.6%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Most of us were lol'ing because we thought Nate was grossly overestimating Trump's chances.

Any poll aggregation model is going to be garbage in / garbage out. Given that the polls were all systematically off, there's no way any model that worked for previous elections would get it right. *Why* the polling data sucked is an interesting and useful question, but lol'ing at Silver because he couldn't foresee a black swan event seems dumb.
Polling data didn't suck that bad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
The polls were not really systematically off. The national polls were pretty damned close, while the state ones were not as great, and, as Nate wrote in the lead up to the election, Trump was just a normal polling error away from winning.
Yeah this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb
Seems rather obvious that, at least in the Midwest, some Trumpers were lying to pollsters out of sheer embarrassment. Only thing that explains a bunch of states in the same region of the country all being off 3-6pts.
Or those states are similar demographically and the error was demographically correlated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
But he kind of did foresee it. His model accounted well for the possibility that state polls would be off in the same direction. If Hillary only won states where her poll average was +3 or more, and lost every other she would be President. There were six states in the -3 to 3 range, and she didn't need any of them. So his prediction was damned good all things considered. His model even predicted about 10.5% of the time (i.e. in almost 40% of Trump victories) Clinton would lose while winning the popular vote. That was considered an insane fluke for GWB. I can't recall that possibility getting any attention elsewhere.
This.
07-19-2017 , 11:55 AM
An interesting thing from the poll that NBC did of counties that flipped from Obama to Trump

Quote:
A reminder: This NBC/WSJ poll's sample was taken from 439 counties in 16 states — Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — that either flipped from Barack Obama to Trump, or where Trump greatly outpaced Mitt Romney's performance in 2012. And as a result, these counties are whiter, older, more rural, and less educated than the national average.
Quote:
Who’s popular (and who isn’t) in these counties
Barack Obama: 50% positive, 37% negative (+13)
Bernie Sanders: 42% positive, 32% negative (+10)
Mike Pence: 38% positive, 32% negative (+6)
Donald Trump: 43% positive, 43% negative (even)
Hillary Clinton: 27% positive, 54% negative (-27)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/firs...h-bill-n784301
07-19-2017 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
Now THAT'S how you get bipartisan support.
“The vote would have been pretty close to, if you look at it, 48 to 4. That's a pretty impressive vote by any standard”
07-19-2017 , 12:02 PM
More new Rohrbacher fun.

"Members of the team of Russians who secured a June 2016 Trump Tower meeting with*Donald Trump Jr.*and*Jared Kushneralso attempted to stage a show trial of anti-Putin campaigner Bill Browder on Capitol Hill.

The trial, which would have come in the form of a congressional hearing, was scheduled for mid-June 2016 by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), a long-standing*Russia*ally who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe. During the hearing, Rohrabacher had planned to confront Browder with a feature-length pro-Kremlin propaganda movie that viciously attacks him—as well as at least two witnesses linked to the Russian authorities, including lawyer*Natalia Veselnitskaya."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-law...-it-back-to-dc
07-19-2017 , 12:04 PM
I know everyone in here is smart enough to now that Russia is super evil, but if you want even more of an idea on just how crazy Russia is, then read this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Red-Notice-Fi.../dp/1476755744

edit: odd timing of my Bill Browder post, given I started writing it before the post above
07-19-2017 , 12:06 PM
I love this especially early in the summer.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...p-jr-miserable

Quote:
A friend of President Trump's two adult sons told People that Trump Jr. and Eric Trump "never wanted this."

“Don can’t do any deals, because he’ll be overly scrutinized. He just goes to work every day and is miserable," a source in their circle added.
07-19-2017 , 12:08 PM
lol
07-19-2017 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4
I know everyone in here is smart enough to now that Russia is super evil, but if you want even more of an idea on just how crazy Russia is, then read this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Red-Notice-Fi.../dp/1476755744

edit: odd timing of my Bill Browder post, given I started writing it before the post above
planet money episode on this is good too.
07-19-2017 , 12:11 PM
Donald Trump would apply the Hastert Rule to any potential underage disclosures: "don't tell mommy or daddy."
07-19-2017 , 12:14 PM
Don't we face a major legal crisis when the President is using official communications to tell millions of people which crimes are allowed and which aren't?

Defense lawyers should be having a field day in court.
07-19-2017 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroPimpin
I wonder how young the girl would have to be for his base to consider it worse than kissing another man?

Twelve is probably bad, 15 will be fine with his crowd, not sure on the years in between. The right answer is probably "whatever the youngest legal age of consent is anywhere in the world." His bozo supporters will snap point out the age of consent of 12 in Angola and the Phillipines, so I might need to lower my initial estimate to 11.
07-19-2017 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiggymike
Twelve is probably bad, 15 will be fine with his crowd, not sure on the years in between. The right answer is probably "whatever the youngest legal age of consent is anywhere in the world." His bozo supporters will snap point out the age of consent of 12 in Angola and the Phillipines, so I might need to lower my initial estimate to 11.
This is funny but definitely would be what happens. That and Bill clinton references.
07-19-2017 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiltedDonkey
Still don't think the bolded is required. Trump is owned, GOP just acting aggressively (and not super-competently) in their own self-interest.
Then explain why so many situations involve GOPers going directly against their (attributed) self interests. Especially those who are party leaders, or committee members, or Vice Presidents. And those who have had their personal and work computers hacked by Russia.

Why is GOP blocking sanctions against Russia? Why are they deflecting from taking actions to tighten up security? Why are they tearing apart voting oversight and replacing it all with Trump's fraud commission. And much much more. What do any of these actions have to do with them profiting from legislation, getting reelected in 2018/20, or staying off the radar of Mueller's team and other investigators?

They may be fighting for their self interests, but those interests appear to be Russian.
07-19-2017 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
Yup, Rohrabacher is a disgrace, from OC coast. I think a good candidate in 2018 could unseat him. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califo...ince_2013).tif

"The final step toward my libertarianism was provided by an anti-communist free-market anarchist named Dana Rohrabacher at the St. Louis YAF Convention. He was a charismatic campus activist, radicalized by Robert LeFevre who provided him with small funding to travel the country with his instrument and folk songs from campus to campus, converting YAF chapters into Libertarian Alliances and SIL chapters. Alas, later he fell into politics, but not the LP. The Libertarian billionaire Charles Koch supported him in two failed Republicans primary campaigns, and after Rohrabacher put in time as Ronald Reagan's speechwriter, he got his reward of a safe seat in the U.S. House of Representatives from Orange County. He is still in office today, with growing seniority. There are few issues on which he is still Libertarian. But in 1969–71, Dana Rohrabacher was the most successful and most beloved Libertarian activist.[13]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_Rohrabacher
There is a candidate, however, I don't think she has a shot. She's trying this grassrootsy thing that I've been involved with. He represents my district so I am going to try to be hugely involved with this.

It feels really futile though. However, Costa Mesa, a historically white, working class city, went blue last election, so I have hope.
07-19-2017 , 01:13 PM
Erica Werner ‏Verified account @ericawerner 2h2 hours ago
Sen Burr [R-NH] is ordering lunch in the Senate carry out. Not going to WH while [Intelligence Committee] investigation under way he says.

https://twitter.com/ericawerner/stat...97486684594180
07-19-2017 , 01:58 PM
so trump today wants GOP to pass a bill or else don't leave town

yesterday it was let obamacare fail

the day before it was repeal it now and replace it later

great ****ing job electing this guy as president.

      
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