The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. - Page 1850 - Politics and Economics

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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

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07-18-2017 , 09:02 PM

#46226

Namath12

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So "Chancellor of Germany" (I guess he still can't spell "Merkel") invited all the G20 leaders and their spouses...but only Trump and Putin showed up? Where was Chancellor of Germany?

07-18-2017 , 09:03 PM

#46227

AllTheCheese

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"sick"

07-18-2017 , 09:05 PM

#46228

fxwacgesvrhdtf

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Most of us were lol'ing because we thought Nate was grossly overestimating Trump's chances.

Any poll aggregation model is going to be garbage in / garbage out. Given that the polls were all systematically off, there's no way any model that worked for previous elections would get it right. *Why* the polling data sucked is an interesting and useful question, but lol'ing at Silver because he couldn't foresee a black swan event seems dumb.

The polls were not really systematically off. The national polls were pretty damned close, while the state ones were not as great, and, as Nate wrote in the lead up to the election, Trump was just a normal polling error away from winning.

07-18-2017 , 09:05 PM

#46229

synth_floyd

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So what's the first petty, childish thing that Trump does that causes major economic damage and/or loss of lives? Pulling out of obamacare?

07-18-2017 , 09:08 PM

#46230

2OutsNoProb

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Seems rather obvious that, at least in the Midwest, some Trumpers were lying to pollsters out of sheer embarrassment. Only thing that explains a bunch of states in the same region of the country all being off 3-6pts.

07-18-2017 , 09:10 PM

#46231

Chippa58

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Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 2,259

Quote:

Originally Posted by uDevil

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...75373981696000

So the press knew and conspired to embargo the story for no understandable reason only to release it a couple weeks later on a Tuesday night? Those silly press guys.

07-18-2017 , 09:11 PM

#46232

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

Jill Stein's recount will sort it all out

07-18-2017 , 09:11 PM

#46233

Namath12

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This stupid **** actually thinks the story is that he attended a dinner at G20

07-18-2017 , 09:13 PM

#46234

uDevil

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Could be a long night.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...77071160762369

07-18-2017 , 09:15 PM

#46235

2OutsNoProb

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I love Maddow and this has been brought up already, but she doesn't have to ****ing open with Russia every single night.

Wouldn't hurt her/Dems/libs in general to spend more time pointing out his pedestrian economic performance thusfar, or lack of keeping promises with regards to coal mining and manufacturing in the Midwest, etc.

07-18-2017 , 09:17 PM

#46236

Double Down

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Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,425

Quote:

Originally Posted by Our House

Millions and millions of people have their well being and lives at stake and this ****ing moron is playing spite games over who's gonna own the bill, and whether or not the Dems will come crawling to the table for bipartisan healthcare? I seriously hate this POTUS. Someone get him a bag of dicks next time instead of KFC.

I couldn't disagree with you more. I think they should actually up his daily KFC regimen.

07-18-2017 , 09:18 PM

#46237

ScreaminAsian

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

she barely got to russia stuff yesterday

07-18-2017 , 09:21 PM

#46238

markksman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

I would be amazed if Putin didn't speak near perfect English.

Yeah but trump is not smart enough to know it and Putin certainly smart enough to take advantage of it. It’s a huge advantage if the person your dealing with doesn’t think you understand them directly.

07-18-2017 , 09:24 PM

#46239

AllTheCheese

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

But he kind of did foresee it. His model accounted well for the possibility that state polls would be off in the same direction. If Hillary only won states where her poll average was +3 or more, and lost every other she would be President. There were six states in the -3 to 3 range, and she didn't need any of them. So his prediction was damned good all things considered. His model even predicted about 10.5% of the time (i.e. in almost 40% of Trump victories) Clinton would lose while winning the popular vote. That was considered an insane fluke for GWB. I can't recall that possibility getting any attention elsewhere.

07-18-2017 , 09:25 PM

#46240

2OutsNoProb

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian

she barely got to russia stuff yesterday

Guess I missed that ep then but she's on it very frequently and it's been the sole topic tonight. Second Putin meeting, eighth person in Trump Tower meeting, money laundering, etc etc

07-18-2017 , 09:28 PM

#46241

ScreaminAsian

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

Guess I missed that ep then but she's on it very frequently and it's been the sole topic tonight. Second Putin meeting, eighth person in Trump Tower meeting, money laundering, etc etc

if you want to know about other stuff go ahead and read about other stuff, rachel isn't stopping you. rachel's show is long form, she's not interested in reading headlines into the camera

07-18-2017 , 09:37 PM

#46242

Clovis8

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Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

So what's the first petty, childish thing that Trump does that causes major economic damage and/or loss of lives? Pulling out of obamacare?

Already done. Paris accord.

This will go down in history as the worst economic decision ever made and the cause of more human suffering than any war.

07-18-2017 , 09:37 PM

#46243

All-In Flynn

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

This. People were talking about Clinton winning the EC while losing the PV. Silver still a boss, he works with what pollsters give him.

07-18-2017 , 09:52 PM

#46244

Max Cut

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zikzak

Nate's final model on election day had Trump at 28.6%.

I remember being shook as hell thinking about how easy it is to lose a 70/30.

07-18-2017 , 09:56 PM

#46245

Our House

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chippa58

So the press knew and conspired to embargo the story for no understandable reason only to release it a couple weeks later on a Tuesday night? Those silly press guys.

He's even talking to his idiots like idiots at this point.

07-18-2017 , 09:57 PM

#46246

Max Cut

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Quote:

Originally Posted by uDevil

Could be a long night.

He sounds shook and apparently the bot army is being deployed.

https://twitter.com/JYSexton/status/887489244251508736

07-18-2017 , 10:01 PM

#46247

Our House

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Clovis8

Already done. Paris accord.

This will go down in history as the worst economic decision ever made and the cause of more human suffering than any war.

Oh wow, Paris too.

Rachel just did a Putin wish list and that wasn't on it. I also thought of a few items she missed. But even without these things, the list she put up was scary as hell. And we get cocksauce from Russia.