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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

07-07-2017 , 08:33 AM
Automation denial is very similar to climate change denial.

It may not be a depression though. Political extremism is a very likely response. The rise in populism, trump Brexit etc is quite likely fuelled in part by the leading edge of the problem.
07-07-2017 , 08:38 AM
How to shake hands with a midget that you love,respect,worship and fear 101

07-07-2017 , 08:42 AM
not very vigorous handshaking from putin

prolly cos he knows where that hand has been
07-07-2017 , 08:46 AM
How did the trump putin handshake go? Did he try his macho bull**** on a true psychopath?

Edit: just watched a video but it cut a split second before the trump jerk would have taken place.
07-07-2017 , 08:56 AM
I still don't understand how it's legal for Trump to ignore multiple ongoing national security breaches from Russia when it's clearly because they benefit him personally. And there's no accountability at any degree of this (min) complacency or (max) abetting??

Like, Trump could watch Putin murder citizens and cheer him on because the victims were black Democrats, and he wouldn't be responsible for any of it? Does not compute.

We could literally be held hostage and taken over within months, without any murdering at all. Matter of fact, probably without even breaking a single law.
07-07-2017 , 09:01 AM
The executive branch enforces the law. If it doesn't, then congress is supposed to be a check on the executive branch. Good luck with that.
07-07-2017 , 09:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by synth_floyd
The executive branch enforces the law. If it doesn't, then congress is supposed to be a check on the executive branch. Good luck with that.
If Trump stands by and claps & laughs over a foreign leader breaking laws though? Sounds criminal at some point, depending on the details and severity. But I don't think it is.

It just seems really problematic. The current situation isn't sustainable as long as Trump doesn't "become" POTUS, and Putin doesn't de-escalate his US attacks (propaganda, bots, nuclear power plant hacks, threats & extortion, 2018/2020 election bombs).

I have no idea what we can do regardless of what they say happened at the TrumPutin meeting today. Trump may try to put it to bed by saying he brought up the election and Putin said "Nope, wasn't us", which he believed to be true.
07-07-2017 , 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
I don't think he's exactly wrong and I'm a pretty pessimistic guy these days.

I've said it before but the long-term ascendant winner here is capitalism and market orthodoxy. Long term for as long as most of us have been living -- THAT'S the ascendant power right now. EVEN after Trump, particularly since Trump will knowingly or unknowingly further its interests anyway -- the long term value set that is winning over the past 75 years or so are those values that comport with the interests of finance capitalism.

Once we acknowledge that as ~basically true, you can make predictions from there as to what the future holds without drastic, revolutionary changes if we continue on our ~present course. And I mean drastic changes far more disruptive than Trump.

So take values that assist markets like market rights egalitarianism (e.g., allowing blacks, gay people, women, etc. to participate fully in the market, in labor, as consumers) -- there's no way those are going to be rolled back meaningfully. I do think the days of the whites-only lunch counter are gone; stories about gay people in cinema and theater are here to stay. Gay people are going to continue to be welcomed as co-workers and in our stores and the backwaters where that isn't true -- they're fast disappearing. Women are going to own businesses and control a lot of wealth. Predictions that portend a return to feudalism or whatever I think are way off the mark.

Now, once you get beyond market rights and into a wider array of social and political dignities -- that's a far dicier proposition.

Similarly, take science. That will have a set of dual fates, imo.

Science in service of technology and markets will be here to stay and is here to stay. Science that builds to conclusions that actively harm or impede markets (see global warming, emerging research about animal sentience and how they feel pain, etc.) are going to be met with reflexive doubt, with superstitious assumptions, with appeals to traditional values and the old order, with censorship, with propaganda campaigns that are allowed to flourish in spite of science.

How many vibrant small-l liberal democratic rights will survive? Hard to say. Obviously some measure of authoritarianism or rolling back tax-and-redistribution schemes which provide economic sustenance to people who can't or don't produce that much -- those laws and that money doesn't service capital and they are certainly on the chopping block. Certainly some forms of censorship are entirely useful to markets, and I expect to see those sorts of freedoms rolled back to a degree.

Religion and traditional order that questions any sort of consumption or inhibition of the human impulse -- e.g., religious norms against gambling or usury or conspicuous consumption -- those are going to be eroded further.

I am very very dour about the changes of the full menu of "Western values" but whichever ones are servile to capitalism are a fantastic bet to survive. Any sort of value set that assumes all humans have dignity, even poor people, or that cherishes any sort of old religious norm or standard that impedes capitalism -- those are probably going to get continual boots to the face.

Western value are an eclectic mix of stuff that abet capitalism and impede capitalism and I think if we sort those values by "service to capital and markets," you'll get the ~proper ordering of which will thrive and which will continue to be assaulted.
While it's true that finance capitalism in the late 30s wasn't quite where it is today, it had no problem with Nazis. IBM happily sold machines to count the number of consumers being incinerated and international banks had no problem with their deposits.
07-07-2017 , 10:02 AM
We're pawns in a game between the market forces that want us to be powerless, complacent consumers for the benefit of the 0.1% and the market forces that want us to be crushed under a dystopian boot for the benefit if the 0.1%.

Amazon or Lockheed, which do you choose? It doesn't matter because JP Morgan Chase wins either way.

Last edited by zikzak; 07-07-2017 at 10:05 AM. Reason: Amazon works better
07-07-2017 , 10:07 AM
I think the notion that the ultimately the optimal solution that markets will create is a world full of middle class consumers should be called Utopian Capitalism, if it isn't already. Forgetting future growth of automation, the singularity, environmental destruction and letting capitalism run forever I don't see why it's clear that it settles in the "Utopia" where everyone is a consumer as oppossed to the what it has from slavery through colonization and neo-liberal imperialism where there's some balance of people who are consumers and some who are, essentially or literally, industrial property.
07-07-2017 , 10:14 AM
The invisible hand is value neutral. It's just natural selection applied to transactions. It optimises oppression if oppression is the flavour of the day. It needs 2 visible hands to keep it in check.

07-07-2017 , 10:17 AM
Well yeah, but he wasn't driving a tank.
07-07-2017 , 10:22 AM
It still appears that Trump is cowering to Putin at every turn. Meantime, Mueller and company quietly toil on their investigation. There's gotta be a there there.
07-07-2017 , 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
While it's true that finance capitalism in the late 30s wasn't quite where it is today, it had no problem with Nazis. IBM happily sold machines to count the number of consumers being incinerated and international banks had no problem with their deposits.
No question that people are amoral, or immoral, and will continue to trade with and do business in bad regimes.

But capital flight from Nazi Germany was a real thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reich_Flight_Tax

Germany had to create a big tax to prevent it, because it was common. Obviously of Jews and the persecuted fleeing and trying to take their money. But some businesses and other wealthy as well, who saw the writing on the wall and didn't want to pay for total war and Germany rearmament. In addition, the Germans lost money/assets AND human capital (e.g., Germany lots of smart people, like Einstein).

And the Nazis and their funders and business partners had to launder tons of money through Switzerland to get the transactions done, partly because the statutory environment in the rest of the west made (eventually) investments in Germany illegal.

None of that is to celebrate the inherent morality of capitalism, but simply that:

1. lots of people and capital did flee Germany
2. it was harder for people to invest in Germany due to popular and legislative pressure outside of Germany

Capital is like water and found its way in and out of Germany but it wasn't a free trade free-for-all the way the modern economy is. And that's partly because of the aggression and brutality that was part and parcel of a fascist regime, lots of people did lose the appetite to trade with them. And lots of people and money fled. The markets still functioned in Germany through most of the war, but the environment was harder and certainly not ideal for capital.

No question, though, on perhaps the larger point: capitalists would much rather deal with fascists than socialists.

Last edited by DVaut1; 07-07-2017 at 10:46 AM.
07-07-2017 , 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Dino,

In the real world the Allies barely won World War II with the United States. But in your world without the United States participating everything is still cool for Canada. Whether Germany won or Japan or Russia or whatever combination of the three still Canada has no problems.

It's pretty clear who has the laughable alternative history.
Well I guess Canada would have the same amount of problems as, say, Australia or Columbia. What exactly they'd be is unknown, but it's a pretty big leap to just assume that the Nazis or Soviets could just waltz in and occupy all of North America. Of course if they developed nukes around that time then maybe it would be a lot different, but had that happened you'd assume that the more likely scenario is that they destroyed each other first. If us Canucks won the nuclear race instead that would be another thing that would also make the whole thing moot.

Anyways, one could also make a credible case that without a USA in existence WWII never would have happened in the first place, so there's that too. Hitler may have lived out his days as a disaffected Austrian coal miner or something.
07-07-2017 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chippa58
It still appears that Trump is cowering to Putin at every turn. Meantime, Mueller and company quietly toil on their investigation. There's gotta be a there there.
Yeah, a lot of people on TV have been saying Trump won't pin the election hacking on Russia because it delegitimatizes his win, and they're saying it like it's fact.

The truth is, however, he's much more likely to be owned by Russia. Not just because of his overall favoritism towards Putin in general, but because Trump would be denying ALL 2016 election interference and not just Russia's. No?
07-07-2017 , 10:52 AM
@dvaut re Nazis

The sanctions weren't driven by market capitalism though. They were imposed on it by an independent civil society.

The indifference of capital to human suffering is obvious. Two relevant questions though:

Do market economies have any inherent power and tendency to resist fascism?

Do market economies actually move society towards the Western Civ values of universal education, suffrage, civil liberty etc? Or, is stratification of society along those lines as well as in terms of wealth the beacon we're drawn towards?
07-07-2017 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
Yeah, a lot of people on TV have been saying Trump won't pin the election hacking on Russia because it delegitimatizes his win, and they're saying it like it's fact.

The truth is, however, he's much more likely to be owned by Russia. Not just because of his overall favoritism towards Putin in general, but because Trump would be denying ALL 2016 election interference and not just Russia's. No?
Yes. The Putin praise seems to predate the election by quite some time. And the whole "wouldn't it be great if we got along with Russia" thing seems to be an issue that is separate from the election itself. I think the unusual devotion from Trump to Russia has more to do with money and political favors (like dropping sanctions etc) than it does with the election itself, although that's still a part of it.
07-07-2017 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dinopoker
Well I guess Canada would have the same amount of problems as, say, Australia or Columbia. What exactly they'd be is unknown, but it's a pretty big leap to just assume that the Nazis or Soviets could just waltz in and occupy all of North America. Of course if they developed nukes around that time then maybe it would be a lot different, but had that happened you'd assume that the more likely scenario is that they destroyed each other first. If us Canucks won the nuclear race instead that would be another thing that would also make the whole thing moot.

Anyways, one could also make a credible case that without a USA in existence WWII never would have happened in the first place, so there's that too. Hitler may have lived out his days as a disaffected Austrian coal miner or something.
We should drop this obviously, but I can't help saying it's impossible for the Cunucks to have won the nuclear race. You could build one now for sure, but we had 100000 people working on it in facilities across the US.

An underrated part of American exceptionalism is that among the wealthier countries per capita we have by far the largest population.
07-07-2017 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
While it's true that finance capitalism in the late 30s wasn't quite where it is today, it had no problem with Nazis. IBM happily sold machines to count the number of consumers being incinerated and international banks had no problem with their deposits.
Sort of related to this, but more about the Democrats and the stock market is this good piece about how Democrats thought the stock market was going to tank when Trump won the Presidency but it turned out the stock market went up and the Democratic befuddlement because they envision themselves as careful stewards of the economy and thought capital would punish Trump for not being a careful steward

Quote:
Stewardship conveys ideas of looking after and keeping order. Democrats now see their role as serving as a fair broker among the competing parts of the economy. They insist they can come up with an arrangement in which capital and labor are simultaneously better off, and that they are the ones who will make the hard decisions, in contrast with the feckless Republicans.

Think of the number of times Democrats have emphasized that they balance the budget while Republicans run giant deficits. Think of the balancing acts required to promote reform without naming business as an enemy — as we saw in both the financial and health care arenas. Think of how President Obama tried to achieve a Grand Bargain with Republicans in 2011 that would have cut Social Security under the mantra of responsibility, only to be stopped by the fact that conservatives wouldn’t budge an inch in raising taxes.

.....

The second wall Democrats hit was the inclination of the business community, with its eye on deregulation and tax cuts, to side with the Republicans regardless of how responsible the Democrats are or whether someone like Trump is at the helm of the GOP. The stock market rally shows concretely how happy the capital markets are to have anyone who will boost corporate profits, even Trump.

But there were also strategic miscalculations. There was a sense, for example, that the insurance companies would help defend the ACA from reckless repeal efforts like the ones we’re seeing. Yet, as Vox’s Dylan Scott reports, the insurance companies are on the sidelines: “Health industry groups generally don’t love Obamacare enough to jeopardize their ability to shape the rest of the Republican agenda — including big corporate tax cuts,” he writes.

The Obama administration avoided calling out the predations of Wall Street after the financial crisis and didn’t take strong actions to prevent foreclosures that would upset the capital markets. Yet finance still hates the Democrats and is waging war on the sensible, necessary reforms Dodd-Frank put in place to prevent Wall Street from creating another crisis. There’s no middle ground to be had there. (Fittingly, the current Treasury secretary, busily rolling back financial reform and soon to lead an assault on progressive taxation, ran a foreclosure mill that the Democrats refused to investigate or prosecute aggressively.

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/201...tegy-economics

Last edited by Huehuecoyotl; 07-07-2017 at 11:10 AM.
07-07-2017 , 11:10 AM
Huehue,

They're all a bunch of Once-lers.
07-07-2017 , 11:19 AM
Guys,

Mueller's got this, right?
07-07-2017 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chippa58
Yes. The Putin praise seems to predate the election by quite some time. And the whole "wouldn't it be great if we got along with Russia" thing seems to be an issue that is separate from the election itself. I think the unusual devotion from Trump to Russia has more to do with money and political favors (like dropping sanctions etc) than it does with the election itself, although that's still a part of it.
But tons of the populist, derpy right adore Putin and have for some time. Here's me in 2015:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...php?p=47701328

Quote:
Modern right-wing America's Putin Fetish is outstanding. If you needed anymore proof the whole movement's principles are easily distilled into what can only be described as a carnival masculinity cult, this is exemplary of it. It's just like lamenting the fact that Saudi Arabia can ban Christian church construction but the poor people of Murfreesboro are left to live near a mosque, or wondering aloud what would terrible fates would befall you if you tried to illegally immigrate to Iran or Mexico and wondering why we let all the world's bums in. In the deep recesses of the modern right-wing American lizard brain is the great fear America is really falling apart and really falling behind, and the principle culprit is that our leaders just aren't despotic enough, like Great Hero Leader Putin, who looks just marvelous without a shirt on riding horseback. We're left to suffer these terrible liberal pussy Presidents who just aren't nearly authoritarian enough. Real leadership is macho adventure photo ops and crushing the spirits of the religious minorities, separatists, and political opponents in your midst. Only then can America be great again.
Why do we need convoluted explanations when simple ones suffice? You could easily predict Trump's Putin fetish if you simply assumed Trump is a fan of right-wing chainmail and cable news fanfic, which he is.

KISS method: Trump adores Putin because Putin in an authoritarian that signals a bunch of masculine virtues and Trump is a wannabe authoritarian at the head of a faux masculinity cult.
07-07-2017 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
The GOP:

The alt-right hates women as much as it hates people of colour
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...right-abortion

Before "alt-right is just a weak group," actually, we have an Alt Right President.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiltedDonkey
I don't have time to read this now but I will get back to you tomorrow probably.
Okay, I read it. I don't agree with 100% of it, but most of it seems pretty much right. There is definitely a strong sexist contingent within the alt-right.

Again, I think our difference is much more about what the threshold is for answering the Fascism questions with a yes for America as a whole. If I were answering the question for just the alt-right I would absolutely have gone with yes.

I would never characterize the alt-right as a weak group because, as you say, they wield significant power at this time but I would still argue that they represent a minority of America.
07-07-2017 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
Another way to understand my point. I'm fine with them saying egg headed know it all liberals and feminists are ruining America. In a narrow sense, from their limited perspective, they are right.

However, what the egg headed know it all liberals and feminists are doing is continuing the project of the enlightenment, basically the essence of wester civilization, that brought together Europe and allowed it to dominate the globe, undertake colonization (oops), and establish The US, Canada, etc.

So when I hear Trump/Bannon/Miller say Western civilization civilization is under threat from the Muslims and the browns, it seems to me like a coach yelling at his players to play harder when the team is up 105-6. What is worse, he's mistakenly directing his strenuous exhortations to the cheer squad and the equipment staff. He's correct that something is wrong, but it's not the game, it's that he has a brain tumor and his wife is sleeping with her dentist.
Haha all your recent posts were good but this one is great.

      
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