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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

07-06-2017 , 03:00 AM
Looking back at the past reminds me of the reusing of slogans. "America First" used by the Lindbergh America Firsters and "Make America Great Again" by Reagan in 1980...and I recently came across Bernie's "Enough is Enough" as "¡Ya basta!" used by the Zapatistas. (Zapatistas may have gotten from him. He's been saying the same things for a long time.)
07-06-2017 , 03:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
Aflametotheground's post demonstrates what I think is the key fallacy of our time, and maybe of all time, at least since written language was invented.

Whenever one group criticizes another, the other will say that, "No, you do it too" or "You did it first." Like Kathy Griffen posts her dumb pic, is widely condemned and fired from CNN, but now whenever someone complains about Trump and the alt right promoting violence, it's suddenly, "Well, you do it too." The thing is, hypocrisy is a powerful and often relevant charge, but people making the charge should be held to a high standard. Trump lies like it's his job, and this is deflected with "CNN is fake news!"

This natural human reaction is behind the false equivalency of the right and the left or the GOP and the DEMs. "Well, DEMs also take corporate money too!" "You're just as bad!" "Look at Corey Booker, he's owned by Big Pharma!" and masks the fact that one of the major political parties basically has almost no desire to establish positive public policy and only serves the interests of its narrow, unpopular constituents while gaining election by stoking conspiracies and resentment of out groups.

I'm definitely liberal, and in some ways leftish, but I think, e.g., Einbert's posts are mainly inflammatory and unhelpful, but I think his heart is in the right place and realize that he must feel under siege in Alabama or wherever.

Newton's Principia just turned 330 years old. From then to now is like half the length of the Roman Empire and we've basically created 1000s of miracles in those 330 years. We may kill ourselves as a species, which is unfortunate, but the progress we've made in the promotion of truth, justice, and human flourishing is historically unprecedented. There may be much more to do, and there is always tons to complain about, but we shouldn't completely lose perspective.
I'm Cory Booker, and I'm running for President.

-Paid for by the DNC and CNN
07-06-2017 , 03:04 AM
Long term the solution is probably for a more united Europe to have its own army and remove its dependency on US troops deterring incursions from Russia. The US would then be free to adopt a more isolationist policy if it wanted to.
07-06-2017 , 03:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
Martin Crane was a cop and a bit of a reactionary. He's definitely going for Trump (and Romney).
Really, it would be an episode where Martin is going to vote for Trump. Frasier, Niles and Daphne spend the episode comedically failing to persuade him not to, and at the last minute, he changes his mind because of something he remembers about his dead wife. The dog then pees on a picture of Trump or something. The end credits would be a montage of Martin throwing out all his MAGA gear, but at the end keeping a Trump bobblehead for the dog to chew on.
07-06-2017 , 03:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
There's also an important caveat i neglected to mention: that society has slipped/fallen from when the just/natural order was fully in effect, and we need to reclaim the past, e.g., Make America Great Again. Conservatives don't as much defend the current order, which is always flawed, so much as an idealized past.

Has a progressive movement ever explicitly called on the past? Nostalgia seems to be a hallmark of conservative movement. It's is a nice anchor, as it doesn't need any specificity or even a particular time frame.
Of course. Lincoln and King, the two greatest political progressives of the last 200 years, quoted/referenced the Bible often. Not precisely "nostalgic" or sentimental, but seeking guidance and drawing wisdom from the great biblical canon.

Your conflation of "calling on the past" with "nostalgia" says it all about how far modern liberal democrats done fell.
07-06-2017 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoltinJake
This is a great post. Bolded is key to me and I think explains a lot about what has changed in the past several years compared to, say, the previous 30 years.

In the past, enough people who were otherwise morally corrupt idiots with terrible views decided that they needed to go along with the elite consensus -- the trusted evening news anchor, political leaders, etc.

If everyone on TV agreed, they must be right. Maybe these people worried about being ostracized if they allowed their gut feelings to be known. Maybe they simply weren't exposed to their own gut ideas in a coherent manner by others, so they didn't share, assuming they were in the minority.


To a large extent, elites in the media had control. It's not really that these elites were purposefully manipulating idiots into obeying norms, it's that the vast majority of people who made up the professional media class were highly educated and so they already agreed on norms. And they repeated them on TV and in newspapers and so it filtered through the population.

But then the internet and the fragmenting of the media allowed more viewpoints to be heard. Soon the aforementioned depraved idiots were seeing other depraved idiots saying the things they always kinda believed and always kinda wanted to say. And then you get a presidential candidate saying those things, the ultimate affirmation.
Thinking about time and history, though, it's important to bear in mind highly fragmented, partisan 'media' was almost the rule for most of American and modern history. And by and large the political climate was much the same way: often violent or pervaded minimally by deep partisan mistrust, or dominated strongly by elites where the masses were expected simply to obey. But not some sort of egalitarian or benevolent fashion; the elites kept the status and others simply dealt with it.

The ideals of a well-functioning liberal democracy, complete with a non-partisan media that contained in it the trusted voices of authority who themselves were protectors of at least lip-service to rationality, science, egalitarianism -- that was a very modern creation.

Take American history. Once you go back to the early 19th century, you're talking about a relatively sparsely populated agrarian society with basically endless land to its west to conquer and populate. A hugely different society.

With the advent of the Industrial Revolution, the creation of a mass-media environment, large immigrant populations arriving, and increased urbanization you get something approximating a context closer to our own. And I've made the point before, but the Civil War was obviously a deadly and violent conflict, followed in the following decades by the concentration of wealth and industrial power and propaganda power in the hands of relatively few. Followed by a strong populist reaction that itself came with violence, with discord, with disharmony. Both sides armed themselves with fiery, aggressive, highly partisan media and the concept of a non-partisan moral arbiter or truth arbiter would be seen as ludicrous. It wasn't sunshine and flowers.

And after the Depression set in by the 30s, before WWII, liberal democracy hung by a ****ing thread. The slimmest of threads. The US had it best, and STILL business elites set designs to stage a coup against FDR who was similarly trying to beat back the forces of a far more radicalized left wing in the US, and eventually got ensnared in a huge global, principally ideological war.

That world we lionize and celebrate -- a well-functioning mass participatory liberal democracy where everyone gets along relatively well and the rule of law is king and we share some vague notions about rights beyond minimalist statutory protections -- that whole consensus really only existed after WWII. Most of the rest history looks nothing like that.

This is related to my point earlier about back-sliding democracy and norms and values, that a lot of the things we cherish and hold as immutable and assumed were long-standing and governed our interactions were in fact highly temporal, relatively recent advancements.

Glib, and sad, almost devastating for those of us who love it: but it may be that the liberal democratic order which dominated the last 70 years or whatever was never destined to last forever, in the same way Platonic cardinal virtues or the estates of the realm no longer govern social order, no longer inform how to govern. We are guaranteed nothing and while I would love to imagine history is really an arc of time that bends always to my ideals, it's probably not the reality. In many ways authoritarian impulses, or pivots to anarchy, or noblesse oblige -- all have proven far more durable and common and long-lasting than mass-participatory liberal democracies.

I am not a fatalist and I do not declare the old order dead, either. Just that we not become accustomed to seeing history as always trending toward justice, and fairness, and progress. Regression is real. I do not know whether history has favored rule by noble elites versus morally corrupt morons but that's sort of the point, that it's hard to suss out, and moral deprivation can be deep and pervasive and we are not so exceptional as to be promised something else.

tl;dr reply: I don't actually think idiots and the morally depraved have been constrained by the elite or technocratic consensus as a rule. That's a relatively very recent phenomenon, quite new and not long-standing.

Last edited by DVaut1; 07-06-2017 at 03:26 AM.
07-06-2017 , 03:19 AM
The media may have been excessively fragmented before the birth of the gray lady and the consolidation of media power thereafter, but the weaponized, belligerent, quick-quipped and ignorant internet-fomented communication apparatus has been more of a blight on good leaders entering the fray and even more so prevailing once exposed.

Without the internet there's no Trump. Maybe without Twitter there's no Trump.
07-06-2017 , 03:19 AM
The role of television. In the 18th and 19th century there were like a million newspapers and pamphlets and such. Radio and television come along and there are a very small number of media outlets who need huge audiences and can't afford to alienate anyone. More and more nowadays it's like the days of pamphlets.
07-06-2017 , 03:22 AM
Dvaut stands athwart history, yelling Stop.
07-06-2017 , 03:23 AM
Popular pamphlets in early America: Common Sense
Popular pamphlets in modern America: Chiefs Planet
07-06-2017 , 03:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
A lot of that 150 consists of countries with literally just a handful of people in a radar station or liaison or something.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ry_deployments

There are 16 countries with 1000+ and like 20 with 100-1000.

Looking at where the most troops are I think the questions are: are they still needed in Western Europe, Japan and S.Korea, can those countries defend themselves, and do we want them to defend themselves as opposed to us doing it?

I know the answer for Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics, and Northrop-Grumman.
Think you can put Israel in there too. If the implied threat of US might was removed from those allies what happens? Does Putin expand. Do the the Chinese and Japanese and Koreans settle old feuds. Does Israel and the Arab sates go to war.

If pulling out of the world militarily was done over a long period i think things would be ok. But if things were uprooted and the world had its genie wish and the US were no longer the bullies. Idk...
07-06-2017 , 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
The media may have been excessively fragmented before the birth of the gray lady and the consolidation of media power thereafter, but the weaponized, belligerent, quick-quipped and ignorant internet-fomented communication apparatus has been more of a blight on good leaders entering the fray and even more so prevailing once exposed.

Without the internet there's no Trump. Maybe without Twitter there's no Trump.
Sure. The speed at which things are communicated today is qualitatively different, but I maintain the ignorant, superstitious, conspiratorial, angry -- the masses of deplorables and their weaponized belligerence -- that is hardly anything new. And the notion that mass media constrained and marginalized those people was perhaps a temporary blip, and this is just regression to the mean.
07-06-2017 , 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by batair
Think you can put Israel in there too. If the implied threat of US might was removed from those allies what happens? Does Putin expand. Do the the Chinese and Japanese and Koreans settle old feuds. Does Israel and the Arab sates go to war.

If pulling out of the world militarily was done over a long period i think things would be ok. But if things were uprooted and the world had its genie wish and the US were no longer the bullies. Idk...
I think the notion that Israel crumbles without US support is way overestimated. We've never really intervened on their behalf and we provide about 16% of their military budget and mostly require them to spend it on American equipment. They could probably buy Chinese stuff and come out the same, could increase spending, and there's plenty to buy from Russia, Germany, France and the UK.

Saudi Arabia on the other hand doesn't last.
07-06-2017 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Sure. The speed at which things are communicated today is qualitatively different, but I maintain the ignorant, superstitious, conspiratorial, angry -- the masses of deplorables and their weaponized belligerence -- that is hardly anything new. And the notion that mass media constrained and marginalized those people was perhaps a temporary blip, and this is just regression to the mean.
Agreed, but I'd argue that technological and logistical limitations largely constrained the deplorables from consolidating their power before the last several years.

I mean, even guys like Andrew Jackson or Nixon had redeeming characteristics.
07-06-2017 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by All-In Flynn
Really, it would be an episode where Martin is going to vote for Trump. Frasier, Niles and Daphne spend the episode comedically failing to persuade him not to, and at the last minute, he changes his mind because of something he remembers about his dead wife. The dog then pees on a picture of Trump or something. The end credits would be a montage of Martin throwing out all his MAGA gear, but at the end keeping a Trump bobblehead for the dog to chew on.
solid
07-06-2017 , 03:40 AM
I’m not going to belittle the silly ness of the US being the same as Canada due to safety. History pretty clearly demonstrates many wars fought on American soil.

Canada absolutely has a huge advantage being neighbored primarily by the strongest country in the world for a while now who is also friendly to them. The reason the US isn’t attacked now is because of their power. It’s silly to think it was easier to physically attack the US 100-225 years ago, when we had many wars on American soil.
07-06-2017 , 03:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
I think the notion that Israel crumbles without US support is way overestimated. We've never really intervened on their behalf and we provide about 16% of their military budget and mostly require them to spend it on American equipment. They could probably buy Chinese stuff and come out the same, could increase spending, and there's plenty to buy from Russia, Germany, France and the UK.

Saudi Arabia on the other hand doesn't last.
Good point that Israel can take care of itself verse the Arab states. But there could be some unknown unforeseen things there. In a hypothetical war does Russia side with the Arab states?
07-06-2017 , 03:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
I’m not going to belittle the silly ness of the US being the same as Canada due to safety. History pretty clearly demonstrates many wars fought on American soil.

Canada absolutely has a huge advantage being neighbored primarily by the strongest country in the world for a while now who is also friendly to them. The reason the US isn’t attacked now is because of their power. It’s silly to think it was easier to physically attack the US 100-225 years ago, when we had many wars on American soil.
Revolutionary War and War of 1812 were about whether it was our soil or theirs. Since then Pearl Harbor - one attack on a territory. Maybe a Japanese U-boat fired a couple shots in Oregon or something.

I think by the civil war we were powerful enough to be pretty secure and we were no world power until WWII.

What am I missing?
07-06-2017 , 03:54 AM
French and Indian
Mexican-American
Drug
07-06-2017 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by batair
Good point that Israel can take care of itself verse the Arab states. But there could be some unknown unforeseen things there. In a hypothetical war does Russia side with the Arab states?
Dunno. I think the Russian interest in the area would be arms sales and preservation of the status quo with a military base in Syria. Even right now with Russia active in the area I don't think Russian troops engage Israelis unless Israel moves into Syria, which I guess could happen if Syria attacks Israel. So, it might depend on how well Putin controls Assad.

In figuring Russia's interest in the ME people often forget that Russia has significant internal issues with Islamic extremists. That and Russia and Israel both having right wing nationalist governments makes them somewhat akin.

Actually the arms deals go both ways. In two deals since 2009 Russia has bought $700 million in drones from Israel.

Russia is also Israel's largest supplier of crude oil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...ssia_relations
07-06-2017 , 04:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
French and Indian
Mexican-American
Drug
Mexican-American war was, I believe, fought in Mexico except we took a huge chunk of it away. We did rout Mexico and make it all the way to Mexico City.

I thought of French and Indian, but it's not like that was an invasion. I guess we fought France in New Orleans in 1812. Long time ago - also territory pretty far from the states.

Drug, yeah, and civil. We're not safe from ourselves.


AHHH, markksman is from TEXAS. He's remembering the Alamo!
07-06-2017 , 04:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Dunno. I think the Russian interest in the area would be arms sales and preservation of the status quo with a military base in Syria. Even right now with Russia active in the area I don't think Russian troops engage Israelis unless Israel moves into Syria, which I guess could happen if Syria attacks Israel. So, it might depend on how well Putin controls Assad.

In figuring Russia's interest in the ME people often forget that Russia has significant internal issues with Islamic extremists. That and Russia and Israel both having right wing nationalist governments makes them somewhat akin.

Actually the arms deals go both ways. In two deals since 2009 Russia has bought $700 million in drones from Israel.

Russia is also Israel's largest supplier of crude oil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...ssia_relations
Alright fair enough. Still a lot of unknowns in the world if the US picked up its ball and went home. Not that i would not like to.
07-06-2017 , 04:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
There's also an important caveat i neglected to mention: that society has slipped/fallen from when the just/natural order was fully in effect, and we need to reclaim the past, e.g., Make America Great Again. Conservatives don't as much defend the current order, which is always flawed, so much as an idealized past.

Has a progressive movement ever explicitly called on the past? Nostalgia seems to be a hallmark of conservative movement. It's is a nice anchor, as it doesn't need any specificity or even a particular time frame.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
I think the left has some of this, exalting the New Deal post-war consensus when trade unions projected power and the middle class was guaranteed some measure of economic security. Say from 1945-1970. Again, this is idealized in that some in the working class may have had it good, but others did not. Certainly not always black labor or immigrant labor, or women. But I think the left does make allusions to that period as a time when things were better, a lost wisdom and proper ordering, something we should return to. How much of this is genuinely ideological (certainly some) versus say reflexively nostalgic -- that is, how much of this is Democratic politicians seizing on nostalgia of a bygone era to simply flatter baby-boomer sensibilities (surely some of that as well) -- hard to say.
And there's an element of the left who are anti-technology and idealize "natural" stuff, the Noble Savage and so forth. There have also been hard-left totalitarian movements who have blamed modernity for humanity's problems (Mao, the Khmer Rouge).
07-06-2017 , 04:56 AM
Trump just used the world stage in Poland to bash CNN and NBC by name, saying he's personally upset with NBC because he helped build them with The Apprentice.

Of course, the reporter Trump called on launched a question about fake news and the response to "that wrestling video", which they felt was one of the most important issues (??) happening on the planet.

EDIT: Now he's bashing the IC for being wrong on WMDs and Obama for doing nothing about the supposed Russia thing, which he's still saying may be other countries or people hacking, but he won't be specific.
07-06-2017 , 05:00 AM
And he is still an apologists for Russia interference in our elections. If he wants me to think he is not in cahoots he might want to change that.

Last edited by batair; 07-06-2017 at 05:05 AM.

      
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