Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81
It's more specific than that. The one rule the courts have imposed on gerrymandering is that minorities are entitled to their own districts. So we get districts that are 50-60% minority. But white liberals live in thise districts too, so you wind up with maybe 75% D.
This is suboptimal for waging redistricting fights. This isn't GOP ****ery either, blue states do it too, because of the courts and a belief that minorities should have representation.
Yes. We can and should debate the value of majority-minority districts. I agree that Democrats sort of acceded to it not only because of court orders but because I think Democrats and the left genuinely did and do want to see a critical mass of non-white legislators. Democrats used to have a lot of southern Congressmen, it's true. They were also uniformly white. Majority-minority districts were meant to solve some of that, even though the solution ultimately genuflected to Republican interests. Ultimately Newt Gingrich and a cadre of GOP big-thinkers realized that they could leverage the left's sincere desire to see more black legislators coupled with the ultimate systemic 'problem' (single-seat, winner-take-all elections) and abuse Democratic electoral fortunes with it.
But it's a tough nut to crack. Assuming a more non-partisan map, for Democrats to win in some of these districts that would be created, they would need almost surely need to recruit 'whiter' candidates on the whole and probably return back to a party that is far less socially progressive. Or assume that these systemic changes alone would flip alot of reflexive white voters into being Democrats. That doesn't feel logical to assume that would happen.
Because gerrymandering alone isn't actually the only problem and I'm pretty confident (too lazy to link) that the effects are dwarfed largely by the fact that Democratic voters, black AND white, are largely concentrated in some very small geographic areas. So long as we have winner-take-all districts that are geographically proportioned (much more systemically ingrained than gerrymandering norms and scams), Democrats have a problem on their hands. The change Democrats really need is a far more proportional awarding of Congressional and local state legislature districts that is *geographically agnostic,* but that's far more deeply embedded in the system and the laws.
WITHOUT that, getting back to parity probably means a party that is 'whiter' or assumes more race-blind voters out in America's suburbs and exurbs and rural areas than probably truly exist. That is to say: Democrats would have to recruit a bunch of white guys (and maybe white women) to run in some hypothetical non-partisan map or else we might just wind up in the same place anyway sans gerrymandering, because the kinds of districts that would be created are still going to having metric ****tons of aggressively racially anxious/racist white people.
I'm already a little ranty but the whole "fix gerrymandering and everything else sorts itself out" reminders me of the left/Democrats who simply want to dump more money into public education without fixing problems with integration, zoning, income distribution, how money gets controlled and outlaid at the local level. In the same way more money to schools might simply make more segregated and disparate schools, so to might electoral reforms. Glib, obviously, but fixing gerrymandering without changing anything else might simply make a more racist, less representative Democratic Party. That sounds absurd but see the Democratic Party before 1965 or even 1995.
Last edited by DVaut1; 06-30-2017 at 11:56 AM.