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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

02-01-2017 , 02:22 PM
Looks like DeVos is going to be close. If it appears to be 50/50, can they confirm Sessions first, so it's 50-49 and thus vote down her nomination? I don't think they can replace him that fast.
02-01-2017 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by master3004
Taking away basic rights that everyone has from one group of people and preventing republicans from stealing an SC seat without a fight are two suuuuuuper different things.
master3004 is right.
02-01-2017 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ogallalabob
It really was not. The Republicans liked it and the Democrats thought it would backfire, not because of voting but because once Hillary was elected she would appoint someone more liberal.
Support for SCOTUS hearings remains strong, CNN/ORC poll finds
March 25, 2016
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politi...nee/index.html
Quote:
Following President Barack Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland to fill the open seat on the Supreme Court, a new CNN/ORC poll finds two-thirds of Americans want the Senate to hold confirmation hearings on his candidacy, and a majority of Americans say the Senate should ultimately vote to confirm him.
According to the survey, 52% say Garland ought to be confirmed, 33% that the Senate should not vote in favor of his nomination. Another 15% are unsure. That's about on par with public support for Obama's previous two Supreme Court nominees, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, as well as other current justices on whose nominations we have polling, including Samuel Alito, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Clarence Thomas. Chief Justice John Roberts is the only one to enter the confirmation process with significantly greater public support: 59% said the Senate should vote in favor of his nomination.
READ THE POLL RESULTS

Most Democrats (80%) and a plurality of independents say Garland should be approved (48% vote in favor, 37% against), but Republicans lean against it: 26% say the Senate should vote to confirm, 54% against.
Assessing Garland himself, 45% say they have a positive impression of him so far, 34% are neutral, 14% negative. Just 13% say they feel he is not qualified to serve on the Supreme Court, around a quarter say he is among the most qualified candidates out there. A majority, 56%, say that as a Supreme Court justice, he would be "about right" ideologically, more than said so about any other recent nominee. Just 25% say they think he would be too liberal as a justice.
02-01-2017 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
I think you could argue that R obstruction didn't help the party and led to an outsider like Trump winning the nom over the career, establishment politicians. Not sure if it is a winning argument but maybe.
Absolutely no one gave a **** about the obstruction. The polling, the debates, the primaries, everything backs this up. You are flat out wrong and trying to create sympathy for going along with what the Republicans are doing.
02-01-2017 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
Here's a hint for people who should be paying better attention. The Republican blockade of Garland was pretty unpopular. When it came time to vote, it didn't matter. Nobody voted for Clinton because of the stolen supreme court seat.
It's hard to know what effect it had because we have no control set. Maybe Hillary would have lost the electoral college by a wider margin, or won the popular vote by a small margin, but for the Garland obstruction.
02-01-2017 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
I think I am misunderstood here. I was pointing out that the nominees legal chops are not sufficient to shield him from a fight.
When Nixon was firing attorney generals looking for one who would do his will > the law, Bork was his man. That is disqualifying. Your posts claiming the nominations are all power politics lack foundation.
02-01-2017 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by .Alex.
Why is keep the filibuster even a good thing long-term. We're saving it so that when the Democrats get back in power Republicans will be able to obstruct every possible action just like they did the last 8 years?
Irrelevant, we just had the last presidential election in American history LDO.
02-01-2017 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
One liberal to another liberal as they are being led to the concentration camps:
"Well, at least we didn't violate any democratic norms! Those Republicans are such hypocrites!"
Idk if this is directed at me but I give zero ****s about norms.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperUberBob
Donald Trump's longest lasting impact will be on the SC. He might be around for 4 (maybe 8) years but if he gets a nominee confirmed who's in their 40s he or she will be around for 30+ years. That's a long legacy to concede without a fight.
What's the most likely chain of events that doesn't end in Trump filling that seat?
02-01-2017 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre
I also don't understand the logic about Democratic members of congress who are up for reelection. "They have to vote like a Republican or they will lose their seat and then a Republican will vote like a Republican!"
Looking out for themselves first.

Quote:
Originally Posted by i run bad
I have seen a lot of talk about the nuclear option the Rs can use to confirm Gorsuch. What exactly is that referring to? The only thing i can think of is the removal of the filibuster provision. If that is true wouldnt the Dems not want to go through with it bc Trump can then just push his agenda through without obstruction? Its difficult to go nuclear on random platform promises that can be compromised between both sides. But it seems like Trump can easily justify ending filibusters if Ds are going to obstruct a standard Republican SCOTUS nominee for 4 years. In summary, our only hope is for Ds to obstruct Trump as much as possible and they are going to give that power away on an issue (albeit a very consequential one) that would make Ds look not so great.
The filibuster has already been removed for other nominations. Which is why Trump is going to be able ram through 100% of his cabinet picks.

Dems absolutely have to force them to use nuclear option. Saving it for later is pointless. If R's are willing to use it now, they will be willing to use it then. They really don't want to use it, by they probably will. If Dems capitulate, they are just recognizing that only Rs get to appoint SC justices going forward

The only other option for Dems is to use it as a bargaining chip. They will allow SC vote for withdrawal of x cabinet appointee, or release of Trump's taxes, or ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by .Alex.
Why is keep the filibuster even a good thing long-term. We're saving it so that when the Democrats get back in power Republicans will be able to obstruct every possible action just like they did the last 8 years?
This. Which is why Rs don't want to exercise it. If necessary they will 100% filibuster the next time a Democrat president nominates to the court. Whoever said we are in prisoners dilemma round 2, after round 1 saw the other side dick us, is correct.
02-01-2017 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by master3004
Taking away basic rights that everyone has from one group of people and preventing republicans from stealing an SC seat without a fight are two suuuuuuper different things.
Of course, but my point is that some norms are worth preserving, almost no matter what the consequences. Tit for tat is not always the right answer if you care at all about decency.
02-01-2017 , 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lycosid
Idk if this is directed at me but I give zero ****s about norms.



What's the most likely chain of events that doesn't end in Trump filling that seat?
There isn't one. The goal is now to make it most damaging to the republicans to put him through.

Allowing it with zero fight at all is unconscionable
02-01-2017 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lycosid
Idk if this is directed at me but I give zero ****s about norms.



What's the most likely chain of events that doesn't end in Trump filling that seat?
It's very unlikely. But that doesn't mean we should capitulate. Delay, delay, delay, and force the Republicans to pass everything on party lines. Then they own it, and failures are theirs.
02-01-2017 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lycosid
What's the most likely chain of events that doesn't end in Trump filling that seat?
CIA or cheeseburger intervention.
02-01-2017 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Of course, but my point is that some norms are worth preserving, almost no matter what the consequences. Tit for tat is not always the right answer if you care at all about decency.
Bending to the will of jackbooted thugs is not decency
02-01-2017 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
Agree, it's just the optics of changing the rules and how it plays politically. The outcome is known (unless there is some big **** up by the nominee) here it's just the process and the politics of the fight.
Optics are dead. Facts are obsolete. There is only lies. You are living in the past.

Cooperation is the worst play on every level.
02-01-2017 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Of course, but my point is that some norms are worth preserving, almost no matter what the consequences. Tit for tat is not always the right answer if you care at all about decency.
I get it, because I was you. Like 2 months ago.

If there is one lesson Democrats need to learn from the last 10 years is that not only is this kind of virtue worthless, it's actually offensive. I mean not to me, but consider how many Trump voters claim they are downright frothing mad at Democrat moralizing. Mom and pop Midwest America have had enough of you flaunting your decency.

Your allies in the political fight have woken to this fact that decency is a liability if it's not shared. And it's not shared.

So: maybe your gods will award you in heaven if they truly care about such things but here on Earth the depths of your concern for the decency to nominate a SCOTUS justice and have an up-or-down vote is a millstone for your desired outcomes and your opponents do not respect it any way. It's pointless self-flattery. It gets you nothing. Your opponents disdain you for it and use it against you. Your allies increasingly disrespect you for it.

I will leave it to you, your gods, and whatever your inner monologue is telling you when watching the West Wing to make the final decision but I think you are going to find yourself in isolation on this. But mostly importantly, that's rightfully so.
02-01-2017 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Of course, but my point is that some norms are worth preserving, almost no matter what the consequences. Tit for tat is not always the right answer if you care at all about decency.
Indeed. We oppose torture even if the other side do it.

But I don't see how opposing a nomination is breaking some norm required for decency. If they had the numbers it would make a lot of sense to demand an acceptable nomination.
02-01-2017 , 02:34 PM
The Dems can easily win the messaging war on the filibuster. Mainly because they're right. Also because showing some spine for once is what their base wants anyways.

It all may be moot though. The republic is probably lost at this point no matter what they do.
02-01-2017 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by champstark
Absolutely no one gave a **** about the obstruction. The polling, the debates, the primaries, everything backs this up. You are flat out wrong and trying to create sympathy for going along with what the Republicans are doing.
I am not trying to create sympathy just discussing the politics of the SCOTUS confirmation process. My home state might give me a different perspective than someone in NY. Kander outperformed Clinton by 13 points which I think can be attributed to his "outsider" status versus career politician Blunt. Being on outsider was more attractive here than being a party loyalist.
02-01-2017 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
I'll try to make this my last post about norms, but at the risk of coming across like Sklansky, I have a question.

If there were some subtle, magical way to restrict access to the vote for some demographic (let's say, rural white men) that tends to vote Republican, would you be OK with doing so? After all, that's what the GOP has done to black people for decades.

I think that the GOP's tactics on voting access are repulsive, but my answer is no. And I think that everyone's answer should be no, because voting access is too precious a norm to erode just for the sake of winning an election.
You aren't operating in a vacuum though. You have an opponent. Try playing basketball against a team that is allowed to travel and foul and tell me if it makes sense for you to keep playing by the rules.
02-01-2017 , 02:38 PM
The trajectory for "norms" isn't looking good.
02-01-2017 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chips Ahoy
Optics are dead. Facts are obsolete. There is only lies. You are living in the past.

Cooperation is the worst play on every level.
It is not hyperbolic to say that we are at war. The Republicans fired the first **** with their refusal on Garland. We must fire back or lay down our arms and surrender EVERYTHING. There is no other option.
02-01-2017 , 02:40 PM
Yep, and when this douche squirms his way into finding a way to justify 90% of Trump's horse****, you say he is Trump's man that was forced through by extreme "nuclear" action by the Rs. You even have his stooges making the argument for you:

Quote:
“If Trump is going to be a transformational president, not a transitional president, he needs a supportive court,” said Roger Stone, a longtime Trump adviser. “Not a conservative court, not a right-wing court — a Trump court. A court that is populist right. Because the court is going to challenge Trump in a dozen areas.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...gorsuch-234474
02-01-2017 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul McSwizzle
You aren't operating in a vacuum though. You have an opponent. Try playing basketball against a team that is allowed to travel and foul and tell me if it makes sense for you to keep playing by the rules.
This is a very good post.
02-01-2017 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chips Ahoy
When Nixon was firing attorney generals looking for one who would do his will > the law, Bork was his man. That is disqualifying. Your posts claiming the nominations are all power politics lack foundation.
My understanding that the Bork nomination changed the standard from "qualified" to today's "mainstream" where individual positions are fair game for examination. Obviously IANAL or Senate scholar but that was the basis for my post.

      
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