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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

06-16-2017 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Simplicitus,

He's violating the hell out of the emoluments. We will see what comes of that. I expect he is already violating the War Powers Act in Yemen. No one cares about that though.

Sure lawyers played their part but when Nixon resigned his approval rating was 24%. I guess bringing up Kenneth Starr might be relevant though we did have a relatively popular president who was impeached because of the mighty power of the rule of law. Or?

On the other hand the biggest war this country has ever fought in terms of tons of bombs dropped was a secret and illegal war for which no charges were ever brought against anyone. What does the law have to do with any of this?
The problem w/ the emoluments clause is the average voter has no idea what it is. They hear the word "emoluments" and their eyes glaze over in boredom. If the media would explain "Hey, listen. What Trump is doing is bad. Here's why." more people would care. But you know, the news is now about pundits and soundbites so you only have 60 seconds to get your point across or your cut off.

Same w/ Yemen. We've been at war in the Middle East for 16 years. It just has no impact on the average voter. They can't dissimulate between Yemen, Iraq, Iran, etc. It's all the same. It's a brown country "over there."
06-16-2017 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
I was with you until your completely false last sentence our house.
It's not completely false. It isn't even false. It's called ignorance, and you would be SHOCKED out of your mind if you looked at how many DEMS don't care about most of Trump's erosions of checks and balances. It's way up there, sorry. The large majority of this country doesn't see the urgency of the matter. They will really start complaining about it... but unfortunately it will be long after it's too late.
06-16-2017 , 07:36 PM
Microbet, i suspect i am using law in a non-standard sense here concerning presidential powers, the separation of powers, and checks on the executive. Sure, Trump can probably find a way to fire Mueller "legally", but I'm telling you that he will lose the support of the gop if he does. I think he'd be impeached by this congress if he does. And if not this one then certainly the next.

As far as war powers issues, why even raise that? It's a morass and has always been so, particularly with underlying changes in travel, armaments, and communications in the second half of the 20th century. Do you think Trump could invade Canada even if he really, really wanted to?

And as far as law more generally, the US isn't perfect by any means but its about the most prosperous and progressive civilization in history, in no small part due to the (imperfect) rule of law. Sure, much room for serious improvement, but don't lose perspective.
06-16-2017 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
But, 96%. Would like to see a new figure now, but keep in mind that 4% drop off wasn't too long ago.
Aren't those from landline calls? Their tune will change once they find out there aren't gonna be new jobs and they lose their healthcare on top of that.
06-16-2017 , 07:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
Sure, Trump can probably find a way to fire Mueller "legally", but I'm telling you that he will lose the support of the gop if he does. I think he'd be impeached by this congress if he does. And if not this one then certainly the next.
LOL no they won't.

He will not lose support of the GOP until the GOP starts losing elections. He is their useful idiot.

Every time Trump does something, you get a McCain or Ryan going on TV saying they are concerned or troubled only to find them going right back to what they were doing earlier that day. They don't give a ****. If anything, they love Trump getting all this heat instead of them.
06-16-2017 , 07:43 PM
75% republican approval was last I saw. I'm sure he's dropped much more among 'independents' who voted for him. Much of Trump's support is not that strong. People wanted to roll the dice. They did and, well, who knew being president could be so hard.
06-16-2017 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RV Life
LOL no they won't.

He will not lose support of the GOP until the GOP starts losing elections. He is their useful idiot.

Every time Trump does something, you get a McCain or Ryan going on TV saying they are concerned or troubled only to find them going right back to what they were doing earlier that day. They don't give a ****. If anything, they love Trump getting all this heat instead of them.
I'm talking about firing Mueller. It's literally the thing that led to Nixon's (quasi) impeachment. If Trump fires Mueller he is done, gone, kaput, auf wiedersen.

I know the gop is bending over backwards to protect Trump because they are scared as hell, and they will ignore things like emoulments for now (but would they support trump if SCt ordered him divest?), but they could not ignore firing Mueller. It's in bold print on the warning label. Just failing to heed the damn label is a clear sign of lack of fitness.

Last edited by simplicitus; 06-16-2017 at 07:53 PM.
06-16-2017 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RV Life
LOL no they won't.

He will not lose support of the GOP until the GOP starts losing elections. He is their useful idiot.

Every time Trump does something, you get a McCain or Ryan going on TV saying they are concerned or troubled only to find them going right back to what they were doing earlier that day. They don't give a ****. If anything, they love Trump getting all this heat instead of them.
GOP might start giving a **** about their association with Trump as of today. Trump's confirmation of being under criminal obstruction investigation is the final warning. Now they start getting pulled in to his world of legal troubles, without his money and without presidential immunity.

That's the one thing besides elections that is capable of making them flinch. Mueller knows it too.
06-16-2017 , 07:55 PM
Simplicitus,

I'm just pushing back because you're geeking out so hard on all this law and Mueller dream team stuff.
06-16-2017 , 07:58 PM
We're in a weird place. What we knew about law and government were completely different during the Nixon, Reagan, or Clinton days than they are during Trump's era. Hell, what we knew last week might not even apply this week.
06-16-2017 , 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
I'm talking about firing Mueller. It's literally the thing that led to Nixon's (quasi) impeachment. If Trump fires Mueller he is done, gone, kaput, auf wiedersen.
I get why you say this. I have doubts though. In Nixon's time there was a media consensus that forced the issue. Now there is an entire alternative facts universe. In that world firing Meuller won't be a problem. For the people who don't exit that world -- which now includes GOP lawmakers -- it's just noise.
06-16-2017 , 08:06 PM
The Roman Republic lasted about 250 years. We're coming up on 241.
06-16-2017 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chips Ahoy
I get why you say this. I have doubts though. In Nixon's time there was a media consensus that forced the issue. Now there is an entire alternative facts universe. In that world firing Meuller won't be a problem. For the people who don't exit that world -- which now includes GOP lawmakers -- it's just noise.
I get this argument, and it's true. What is also true is that the Nixon impeachment establishes a precedent on all fours with the current situation. So while the context is different, with more partisanship, the precedent is much stronger. Most of Congress is lawyers, and precedent matters a lot to them. It's the foundation of our (and any common law) legal system. The Koch's may not care about precedent, but Ted Cruz and Anthony Kennedy do.

Firing a special counsel is big red button labeled "DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES PRESS THIS BUTTON."

And Trump is just sitting there with the button mocking him like the telltale heart.

"Press zee button Donald, the shiny, shiny button. Do it."
06-16-2017 , 08:22 PM
Also, re: everyone this afternoon defending Trump's naiveté:

Please don't fall for the same Republican talking point trap on how there is or isn't Russian collusion. Trump could easily be the useful idiot to Putin and still be in giant trouble both legally and politically. It's not like Mueller is going to ignore coordination (because collusion isn't even a legal term AFAIK) between a bunch of Trump campaign officials AND ignore blackmail/kompromat or say, 900 million in unpaid Russian debt.

Also, Trump won't be able to skate on obstruction unless he blows democracy apart (yes, he may opt to rapidly accelerate this goal of his). There is NO earthly way to claim he is ignorant of obstruction for not knowing any better when he's been warned repeatedly by the people who are in charge of holding him accountable, and is still obstructing justice daily. He's also really good at pointing out obstruction, bribery, blackmail, coordination, and many other crimes when he sees other people or presidents committing them. It's super clear that he's NOT ignorant, he just doesn't give a flying ****.

Whatever things Trump doesn't want us to find out are worse than anything we've seen so far. And that's saying a lot.
06-16-2017 , 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
I get this argument, and it's true. What is also true is that the Nixon impeachment establishes a precedent on all fours with the current situation. So while the context is different, with more partisanship, the precedent is much stronger. Most of Congress is lawyers, and precedent matters a lot to them. It's the foundation of our (and any common law) legal system. The Koch's may not care about precedent, but Ted Cruz and Anthony Kennedy do.

Firing a special counsel is big red button labeled "DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES PRESS THIS BUTTON."

And Trump is just sitting there with the button mocking him like the telltale heart.

"Press zee button Donald, the shiny, shiny button. Do it."
NOOO, NOT THAT BUTTON!!! WHAT ARE YOU DOING???







****, he just ordered a coke.
06-16-2017 , 08:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NhlNut
Trump hands
Spoiler:
06-16-2017 , 08:37 PM
Simplictus is right.

If Trump fires Mueller he is done. I would be done. He isn't President just because of white trash rednecks. He is President because of the (white) upper-middle class. He fires Mueller the Dow tanks 1000 points. Moderate supporters leave him. It ends his Presidency. I'll be on the streets with einbert.
06-16-2017 , 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
I'm talking about firing Mueller. It's literally the thing that led to Nixon's (quasi) impeachment. If Trump fires Mueller he is done, gone, kaput, auf wiedersen.

I know the gop is bending over backwards to protect Trump because they are scared as hell, and they will ignore things like emoulments for now (but would they support trump if SCt ordered him divest?), but they could not ignore firing Mueller. It's in bold print on the warning label. Just failing to heed the damn label is a clear sign of lack of fitness.
I like this post but the bolded is not completely true.

Nixon wanted Cox fired, told AG Richardson to fire him, Richardson refused and resigned. Ditto for Ruckelshaus who was top dog once Richardson resigned. Bork was promoted and then fired Cox, but then he appointed Jaworski who just picked up where Cox had left off. Even after all that, there was STILL less support for impeachment of Nixon then than there is to impeach Trump now (45% for Trump last I looked, 44% for Nixon then). It wasn't until like nine months later before impeachment articles made it out of committee in the House, and that only happened after SCOTUS ordered the tapes released (then 18.5 minute gap, "smoking gun" tape) and it was a mortal lock that the Senate had the votes to convict. But for those tapes there's a good possibility Nixon serves out his second term.
06-16-2017 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Simplictus is right.

If Trump fires Mueller he is done. I would be done. He isn't President just because of white trash rednecks. He is President because of the (white) upper-middle class. He fires Mueller the Dow tanks 1000 points. Moderate supporters leave him. It ends his Presidency. I'll be on the streets with einbert.
06-16-2017 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chips Ahoy
They voted NOT guilty because they believed being black and in (legal) possession of a gun is enough for an officer to reasonably feel his life is in danger. White supremacy is the supreme law of the land.

Sorry meant "not guilty". And if the victim had been white and everything else had been the same, all twelve jurors would have, in your mind, voted "guilty"?
06-16-2017 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Simplictus is right.

If Trump fires Mueller he is done. I would be done. He isn't President just because of white trash rednecks. He is President because of the (white) upper-middle class. He fires Mueller the Dow tanks 1000 points. Moderate supporters leave him. It ends his Presidency. I'll be on the streets with einbert.
Zero chance you stop supporting him no matter what he does.
06-16-2017 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LFS
What in God's name is going on with his hands in this picture?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LFS
Spoiler:
You've never seen someone clap?

06-16-2017 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Simplictus is right.

If Trump fires Mueller he is done. I would be done. He isn't President just because of white trash rednecks. He is President because of the (white) upper-middle class. He fires Mueller the Dow tanks 1000 points. Moderate supporters leave him. It ends his Presidency. I'll be on the streets with einbert.
No you won't.
06-16-2017 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
No you won't.
He'll at least tell us he was out there 4 years from now.
06-16-2017 , 09:10 PM
If awvaal and einbert meet, the resulting matter/antimatter blast
will rip away half the Earth's atmosphere.

Last edited by uDevil; 06-16-2017 at 09:12 PM. Reason: STOS Obsession

      
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