Quote:
Originally Posted by Namath12
I think there's little to no chance Congress flips completely in 18 because of the seats up in the Senate. Dems are defending more vulnerable seats than the GOP, Dems will need to win the 3 where GOP is vulnerable and then run the table on seats they are defending, that is a huge longshot.
By the way, these are the three where the GOP is most vulnerable:
Nevada (Dean Heller)
Arizona (Jeff Flake)
Texas (Ted Cruz)
Yup, that's right. Ted Cruz is the third most vulnerable Republican in the Senate in 2018. Getting it to 50-50 would be a huge upset for the Dems. While I expect them to win Nevada and Arizona, holding the line on their seats in Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania would be a feat in and of itself.
If you want to make a case one of the other GOP seats is more vulnerable than Cruz, feel free. Here are their seats up for re-election and the Cook PVI of those states. For a point of reference, GA-06, where Ossoff is leading in the polls, is R+8. However, it's a very ideal red district for Democrats (highly educated/lots of moderate Republicans).
Nevada (D+1)
Arizona (R+5)
Texas (R+8)
Mississippi (R+9)
Nebraska (R+14)
Tennessee (R+14)
Utah (R+20)
Wyoming (R+25)
By contrast, here's the Democrats list (including the two independents who caucus with Dems). A couple of the most vulnerable Dems are also only one-term Senators, so whereas some of them have a history of winning in a red state (Manchin and McCaskill come to mind), others do not and pulled it off once.
West Virginia (R+20)
North Dakota (R+16)
Montana (R+11)
Missouri (R+9)
Indiana (R+9)
Ohio (R+3)
Florida (R+2)
Wisconsin (EVEN)
Pennsylvania (EVEN)
Virginia (D+1)
Minnesota (D+1)
Michigan (D+1)
New Mexico (D+3)
Maine (D+3)
Eleven Others are D+6 or better
Meanwhile, the House is gerrymandered so badly that the Dems need to win by a sizable margin nationally to retake it. That I expect to see happen, but holding ground or gaining 1-2 seats in the Senate would be awesome. In 2020, the Democrats only need to defend Virginia and Michigan, but the Republicans have to defend Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. So, getting it to 50-50 in '18 means the Democrats could take it all in 2020.