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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

06-02-2017 , 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by synth_floyd
It's because Trump has no views on virtually anything. He doesn't like Obama. He was rude to the Europeans and they responded in kind. All those people are in favor of the Paris deal....which means he opposes it.
Yes. NYT has a good editorial today about the withdrawal (money quote: Paris would not, in short, stop Mr. Trump from doing the dumb things he wants to do), but even there they come at it from the view that Trump based his decision on bad info about the accord's effect on the economy.

The Chait piece that circulated yesterday was well-written and correct, but its thesis struck me as highly obvious. How is it possible that presumably smart left leaners such as the NYT editorial board still subscribe to the belief that Trump goes through traditional policy considerations, when "eff Obama" explains ~all of his decisions and makes way more sense given who he is. Occam's razor, people!
06-02-2017 , 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BOIDS
we had a big old row about coal here back in the 80s

the problem was that in order to dig up £90 worth of coal we had to spend £100, so the govt got rid of the entire (at the time, nationalised) industry over the course of about a decade. the upside was that the rest of the country stopped pouring money into a losing industry, the downside was that many rural communities - which had for generations relied on the mining industry for jobs - were completely shattered and to this day have not recovered

~no private firms entered the space left behind by the public sector withdrawal due to the aforementioned spend £100 to earn £90 problem

my question is this: even if drumpf strips away environmental regulations etc, can a sizable american coal industry exist without indefinite government handouts?
No, it can't. Long term contracts for solar are already under 3 cents per kwh in the US, which is substantially cheaper than coal. Wind is also cheaper. Energy with storage, smart grid etc altogether will be less expensive long before things like new coal power stations can come online.

But, it takes a LOT just to replace the energy production in the US. It could take maybe a decade if a huge effort were made, but it could also take 50 years if the FF industry has its way. Or 100.

Last edited by microbet; 06-02-2017 at 10:13 AM.
06-02-2017 , 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Lord haw-haw says hi.
I suppose it is my own fault that what you took out of that was me calling all liberals dumb. My intention was to highlight the dumb strategy of the subset of liberals who criticized Musk for working on the council since it was in response to Riverman telling Musk to go **** himself.

In any case, comparing me to a Nazi propagandist is unwarranted.

Last edited by amoeba; 06-02-2017 at 10:19 AM.
06-02-2017 , 10:13 AM
Can someone explain to me Trump's decision-making process to exit Paris agreement. Ovewhelming pressure from the whole world but yet he gieas ahead with it. It really makes no sense. Is it some promise he made to Koch brothers and others during his campaign or just personal interest or both?
06-02-2017 , 10:14 AM
CNN turning positive news into negative news.

U.S. unemployment hits lowest level since 2001

But, these are the first few lines:

Quote:
America's job market may be losing steam.

The U.S. economy added 138,000 jobs last month, less than the 174,000 jobs gained in April and lower than expected. Job gains for March and April were also revised down.

"Disappointing," says Lynn Reaser, an economist at Point Loma Nazarene University in California. "The economy is still growing but the job market has lost some momentum."
WTF CNN?! The economy is underperforming yet Trump still gets credit for job creation in your headline? **** you!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bombonca
Can someone explain to me Trump's decision-making process to exit Paris agreement.
**** liberals.
06-02-2017 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
Roberts won't vote for Muslim ban. He knows it will be seen as badly as Dredd Scott or Korematsu. Daddy sure can count on Alito though. What a POS.
Yeah Alito has delivered on all the terribleness we expected of him, over and over and over again. I expect nothing different here.
06-02-2017 , 10:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Yes. NYT has a good editorial today about the withdrawal (money quote: Paris would not, in short, stop Mr. Trump from doing the dumb things he wants to do), but even there they come at it from the view that Trump based his decision on bad info about the accord's effect on the economy.

The Chait piece that circulated yesterday was well-written and correct, but its thesis struck me as highly obvious. How is it possible that presumably smart left leaners such as the NYT editorial board still subscribe to the belief that Trump goes through traditional policy considerations, when "eff Obama" explains ~all of his decisions and makes way more sense given who he is. Occam's razor, people!
I think Josh Marshall calls it Trump's Razor instead.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/...-trump-s-razor

Quote:
Over the weekend, I outlined my heuristic of Trumpian action which my high school classmate John Scalzi has now dubbed ‘Trump’s Razor‘ in honor of ‘Occam’s Razor’, the foundational mode of reasoning devised by the 14th century scholastic theologian William of Occam. According to Trump’s Razor: “ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts” and that answer is likely correct.
06-02-2017 , 10:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombonca
Can someone explain to me Trump's decision-making process to exit Paris agreement. Ovewhelming pressure from the whole world but yet he gieas ahead with it. It really makes no sense. Is it some promise he made to Koch brothers and others during his campaign or just personal interest or both?


Obama set it up
Merkel was mean to him
**** those two


That's it.
06-02-2017 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
Elon Musk, Bob Iger and whoever the **** else think it's a good look to bail on Trump now!?! can seriously go **** themselves

That anyone falls for this **** is so ****ing demoralizing
Kind of a dumb view. There's nothing wrong with telling a bad person to do better things. In fact, it's good to urge people to do good things. It's also good to resign when you give advice about an important issue that's not followed. It's not like Musk was out campaigning for Trump before he won.
06-02-2017 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Ummm... don't put dumb **** on Facebook. Don't hold an effigy of the President's bloody decapitated head during a photo shoot. Don't make jokes about bombs on airplanes. It's like some people are ****ing ******ed and don't realize there are consequences to social media posts.
but absolutely spew hate speech towards muslims, blacks and minorities. espouse white supremacy and nazi ideals. even hold rallies for it.

bc free speech amirite.
06-02-2017 , 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Kind of a dumb view. There's nothing wrong with telling a bad person to do better things. In fact, it's good to urge people to do good things. It's also good to resign when you give advice about an important issue that's not followed. It's not like Musk was out campaigning for Trump before he won.
I agree with this take but it's a difficult calculation. I am also sympathetic to the point, though, that there's a certain threshold of badness which elites should have where they wouldn't work to try to help a bad person to do better things. At some point humans need to have a view of justice where some sins and behavior are simply beyond the pale.

I do think others are discounting that there are plenty of people where "we tried to help him but he is irredeemable so we quit" is politically more powerful than an initial "**** off, we're not in league with you" but I do think it's highly contextual. I could accept either posture with respect to Trump FWIW.
06-02-2017 , 10:31 AM
And now for something completely different unsurprising

06-02-2017 , 10:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Americans love and revere stupidity like no other culture in history. It's so pathetic.
While I mostly agree with this, you can't ignore the dark ages in this statement.
06-02-2017 , 10:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlk9s
We would.
Doubt this is true. The US leads in technology but the rest of the world could catch up fast. Plus the US would be fighting on several fronts which would stretch its forces thin.

Of course the true answer for who would win is probably nobody.
06-02-2017 , 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
I suppose it is my own fault that what you took out of that was me calling all liberals dumb. My intention was to highlight the dumb strategy of the subset of liberals who criticized Musk for working on the council since it was in response to Riverman telling Musk to go **** himself.

In any case, comparing me to a Nazi propagandist is unwarranted.
I wasn't comparing you I was comparing those who work with trump on anything.
06-02-2017 , 10:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombonca
Can someone explain to me Trump's decision-making process to exit Paris agreement. Ovewhelming pressure from the whole world but yet he gieas ahead with it. It really makes no sense. Is it some promise he made to Koch brothers and others during his campaign or just personal interest or both?
He is a very stupid person lacking all critical thinking skills or rationality. He makes all decisions based on the last bit of information he is presented with while having no ability to weigh the validity of said information.

Looking for a reason is a fruitless endeavour.
06-02-2017 , 10:47 AM
Mandatory reading for anyone who has to interact with a trumpkin over the next week regarding a few of the biggest lies from trump on his Paris decision

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...p-paris-speech
06-02-2017 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombonca
Can someone explain to me Trump's decision-making process to exit Paris agreement. Ovewhelming pressure from the whole world but yet he gieas ahead with it. It really makes no sense. Is it some promise he made to Koch brothers and others during his campaign or just personal interest or both?
Change=accomplishment.

He is dying for a "win". He can paint this as a win to the mouth breathers.
06-02-2017 , 10:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dinopoker
Of course the true answer for who would win is probably nobody.
This is true, Joshua.
06-02-2017 , 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdidd
Change=accomplishment.

He is dying for a "win". He can paint this as a win to the mouth breathers.
He could tell the mouth breathers tomorrow that he passed health care and tax reform and 75% of them would believe it.
06-02-2017 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
Mandatory reading for anyone who has to interact with a trumpkin over the next week regarding a few of the biggest lies from trump on his Paris decision

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envir...p-paris-speech
How many Trumpkins actually listened to his speech or care about the facts used to justify it? F the Euros, F the liberals, yay America, etc. etc.
06-02-2017 , 11:01 AM
Those talking points just exist so they have something to say in response to snotty liberals telling them they should care about the planet. They don't actually care about the accuracy or the actual facts themselves. Notice that a lot of conservatives didn't even bother with this part of it and just skipped straight to "lol liberals are mad" because they do know one thing and that's their audience.
06-02-2017 , 11:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
If you can't describe the ****ing difference between weather and climate you should not be allowed within 100 miles of any decisions referring to the Paris Accord.

Americans love and revere stupidity like no other culture in history. It's so pathetic.



Really good simple explanation of the random walk.
06-02-2017 , 11:12 AM
For those of you inclined to think the withdrawal is not an big deal because the Accord was non-binding consider the following,

1) global warming is by definition global. All solutions require a global effort. This is especially true in the future if we try to employ geo-engineering solutions. These will require unprecedented global agreement.

2) the requirement for global agreement and cooperation extends beyond the global warming issue to things like ocean pollution, over fishing, trade, terrorism and global security.

3) environmental issues are externality issues. These are only solved with cooperation.

4) even the most conservative estimate place the toll of unchecked global warming at trillions of dollars and millions of lost lives over the next 100 years alone.

5) the previous stabilizing force of the US in these types of global agreements was paramount to their success.

6) never in history NEVER had every nation come together to agree on anything. The Paris Accord meant far more than a check on global warming. Most of its value was symbolic. But not in the sense of word that suggests meaningless. Quite the opposite. It was the most important global agreement since NATO was created.

7) the US withdrawl tells the world that cooperation is not very valuable and that they can agree to something and simply withdrawal on a political whim. Politics is about setting norms.

It is hard to think is something trump can do which would be worse in the long run than his actions yesterday.

Last edited by Clovis8; 06-02-2017 at 11:25 AM.
06-02-2017 , 11:19 AM

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/868073544445562880

      
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