NYT has called it for Ron Testes.

Still this is looking to be a pretty big swing. The numbers are still fuzzy but if there's a similar swing in GA we can expect the Ossoff race to be incredibly tight. This is actually good news....for Democrats if they can get their **** together.

Estes won by about 6%.

People keep wanting to go YEAH WHOOO cause it's koch's own district, but they need scoreboard W's and L's not moral victories. Also, dems are highly motivated now and R's really aren't, when elections like those have been the other way around recently. Gonna be hard to keep that up for another year and a half, when people notice again that a bunch of dems aren't better on the corruption front. (my own house rep voted for a more $ in politics from corps bill that every R voted for--already want that rep out now and that was a dem)

It's a great sign for Ossoff, and for 2018, but they need to get their ducks in a row and work WITH Berniecrats, not ignore them. They also need a 50-state strategy in 2018, because it's all up for grabs. They better get to work.

this isn't unique to democrats pretty sure the same study showed that both parties vastly overestimate how conservative there constituents actually are. ymmv on how accurate these types of surveys are though

This whole "it's not about Trump, it's about Brownback" thing is bull****, too. Kansas was already a known dumpster fire in November, but Pompeo carried the district by 31. Testes managed to win by ~8, and only one thing has really changed between now and then.

Pompeo won by about 31 percent. That's a 25 point swing. If they hold one third of that swing nationwide in '18, it flips the House even with the gerrymandering.

Put another way, they took an R +15 district down to a six-point margin. That's 9 points off the Cook PVI. If they won all of the seats at R+9 or lower, they'd take the House 298-137.

Obviously it's not going to be that drastic, but this bodes really well for our previously slim hopes of taking back the House in 2018 despite the gerrymandering.

On the flip side, it's freaking incredible that a Republican can win after seeing six years of Brownback and 2.5 months of Trump. These people really are brainwashed.

LOL at the idea that Trump will "normalize." This is the new "pivot" that people like to claim will happen, but if there is anything that Trump has taught us it is that this is who he his and the chaos is not going to stop.

It was the same study and it did show what you say. I didn't mention the conservative side of it because it wasn't really relevant to my point.

To be fair Hitler Never considered Jews people.

Do Dems even compete in KS? I know in my little corner of rural PA there are essentially zero Democrats holding office.A state senate race the last go round was an uncontested win for the Republicans. The Republican primary settles most contests. You'd hardly know that the Democrats existed if you didn't see them on the news.

Just means R's more motivated to find voter fraud and DQ democratic voters from voting.

It's still overstated, D's are highly motivated, R's aren't atm. The problem is gonna be maintaining this and fighting all the suppression to 18, that will not be easy to do.

Being Debbie Downer is a bad way to sustain the enthusiasm.

We'll have to find some way to stay motivated. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

As usual, you've got this backwards. Trump pivots you.

Yeah if Assad had just offered free showers it would have been cool cool cool.

If what Einbert wants is what ends up being the alternative; then I'm gonna be a debbie downer and proud of it.

People are way underestimating the reality where Kim believes he is a real life Christ figure and not just some greedy despot. Whatever his end is it's not going to be some peaceful exile.

And what is it that I want that's so awful to you?

Like, you seemed to have been rooting for Thompson tonight. He's a liberal Berniecrat, he and I probably agree on the vast majority of issues. What is so awful about me but so great about him?

Trump on Bannon:

"I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.3194ce93e8ab

Don't lose sight of important civil rights issues in the midst of all of this chaos, people. With Jeff Sessions as A.G.* we are going to need to reactivate the entire Civil Rights movement. The damage that he is going to wreak on our humanity is going to be deep and vast. We need to set systems into place for healing and repair of our neighbors and brothers and sisters when they get out of prison so they can become productive in society again. We need to fight for criminal justice reform on the state and local level. The feds are going to be pushing against us for at least the next four years.


https://twitter.com/innocence/status/851963139134558208

*Reminder that Jeff Sessions LIED in his confirmation hearings and should be removed from office as Attorney General immediately. He should also probably be charged with perjury after that. LOCK HIM UP

No, not really, but that's kind of the point. It's become a case study of the GOP agenda with no restraints, and it's been a disaster... But they just keep pulling the lever for the guys in red.

Re Bannon, that's the kind of thing Trump usually waits until the bus has finished rolling over the body to say.