The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. - Page 1029 - Politics and Economics

Yeah there are two rural counties that haven't reported at all and Thompson has been losing his margin in Sedgwick as election day votes come in, but still, DCCC absolutely ****ing dropped the ball here

Yeah, I mean, if they lose this by like 1-2 points without putting any money into it that's pretty terrible.

04-11-2017 , 09:55 PM

#25702

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

DNC pushing 8 million bucks to Osoff and letting Thompson die on the vine not looking super bright

04-11-2017 , 09:56 PM

#25703

m_reed05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 8,611

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

DNC pushing 8 million bucks to Osoff and letting Thompson die on the vine not looking super bright

Hindsight. I don't think anyone could have expected this one to be close.

04-11-2017 , 09:58 PM

#25704

ligastar

ToP 100 pAsS cAtChErS

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 30,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by m_reed05

It's pretty much over. R is going to win, but they should be terrified of next week.

what is next week? the GA election just north of ATL?

04-11-2017 , 09:58 PM

#25705

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by m_reed05

Hindsight. I don't think anyone could have expected this one to be close.

From what I've read, though, which admittedly is very little, the only polling done in KS-4 was by Republicans, and they panicked and started pumping money in at the last minute. The Dems couldn't have done a poll or two there a few months ago and decided to put a little bit of money into it if it was reasonably close?

04-11-2017 , 09:59 PM

#25706

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

Estes pulling away now, up 3 points. Oh well.

04-11-2017 , 10:00 PM

#25707

JonnyA

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,664

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Agreed. How much does a poll cost - maybe a few grand at most? If the poll comes back bad, then you punt, but seems worth the cost to find out.

04-11-2017 , 10:00 PM

#25708

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by ligastar

what is next week? the GA election just north of ATL?

Yeah, Georgia's 6th District on 4/18. Jon Ossoff is leading and he's the Dem, but it's a jungle primary so he needs to clear 50% to avoid the runoff.

KS-4 has a Cook PVI of R +15, GA-6 is only R +8.

04-11-2017 , 10:00 PM

#25709

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

Estes pulling away now, up 3 points. Oh well.

About 40 precincts in Sedgwick County came in and Estes actually tightened the deficit there. Not good.

04-11-2017 , 10:01 PM

#25710

m_reed05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 8,611

Quote:

Originally Posted by ligastar

what is next week? the GA election just north of ATL?

Yea, but there will be a runoff unless Ossoff (D) can get to 50%.

04-11-2017 , 10:05 PM

#25711

lycosid

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,806

Quote:

Originally Posted by m_reed05

@redistrict
@nate_cohn
@forecasterenten

The main twitters I follow during this sort of thing, any others I'm missing for future elections?

@decisiondeskhq

04-11-2017 , 10:05 PM

#25712

mutigers

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 37,175

yuuuuuuuuuup

04-11-2017 , 10:12 PM

#25713

ligastar

ToP 100 pAsS cAtChErS

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 30,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Yeah, Georgia's 6th District on 4/18. Jon Ossoff is leading and he's the Dem, but it's a jungle primary so he needs to clear 50% to avoid the runoff.

KS-4 has a Cook PVI of R +15, GA-6 is only R +8.

ty. good stuff cuse.

04-11-2017 , 10:15 PM

#25714

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,720

52.0% to 46.2% with 73% in. Pretty sure that's it.

04-11-2017 , 10:16 PM

#25715

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Some Perez apologists are saying that national Dem help would've mobilized Rs(the bulk of Thompson's gain was in cratered R turnout while getting most of the 2016 Ds out) instead of flipping people, which, OK, that's a legitimate argument.

But then what is it that you people ****ing do with the money you're constantly emailing me about?

04-11-2017 , 10:18 PM

#25716

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

So apparently, Thompson (the Dem in KS-04) is a Bernie supporter who beat the establishment Dem in the primary... and the DNC and DCCC gave him $0, and he had to beg the state organization to give him $3,000 for a mailer.

This may be it, I may be out. The party is now withholding funds from progressives who beat establishment candidates and punting seats to the GOP in the current climate? GET THE **** OFF YOUR HIGH HORSE PEREZ!

Quote:

“There are thousands of elections every year,” Perez said. “Can we invest in all of them? That would require a major increase in funds.”

https://news.vice.com/story/dnc-isnt...race-in-kansas

Thousands of elections every year????? Name 10 more important elections for the DNC/DCCC in 2017. **** it, name five.

04-11-2017 , 10:21 PM

#25717

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Exactly. I mean, at the very least they could have put some money into organization without tipping off the R's too much... Even a couple hundred thousand would have helped him... And they could have purchased a last minute ad-blitz when it was too late for the GOP to do much to respond.

It'll probably end up being a 3-4 point Republican win (most of the outstanding vote is in Sedgwick), who knows what could have been?

04-11-2017 , 10:24 PM

#25718

microbet

Solar Powered

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 56,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Dunno about the national party but the California Democratic Party spent $560k on Kamala Harris' run against another Democrat.

04-11-2017 , 10:29 PM

#25719

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

They gave millions to Ossoff. Pretty clear their strategy is to write off "unwinnable" districts and to pour money into competitive races. I was listening to the latest Chapo, and they cited a study that showed Dem politicians vastly overestimate their constituents' conservatism. Winning or even coming close in Kansas was probably unfathomable to them.

04-11-2017 , 10:30 PM

#25720

cuserounder

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

Yup, but this is what polls are for. That they couldn't spend whatever a poll costs (10K at the most I'm guessing?) is unfathomable.

04-11-2017 , 10:30 PM

#25721

GTO2.0

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,784

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

Even if the first comment was an oops, how can you justify the two attempts to explain it?

04-11-2017 , 10:32 PM

#25722

uDevil

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 6,941

https://twitter.com/sfmnemonic/statu...27035261972480

04-11-2017 , 10:47 PM

#25723

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,921

Quote:

Originally Posted by Our House

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...67718248361986

Nothing like starting your own war chant.

Crap no president should ever say for two thousand Alex?

04-11-2017 , 10:51 PM

#25724

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,921

Quote:

Originally Posted by dinopoker

once again feel compelled to point out that North Korea just wants money. pay him off and he shuts up.

That money is for coal miners, we can't give it to North Koreans!!!?!!?!!

04-11-2017 , 11:01 PM

#25725

uDevil

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 6,941

Bill O' temporarily recusing himself from his show. If he doesn't make it back maybe he can try out for Spicer's job.

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