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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.
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04-11-2017 , 09:18 PM
#25676
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FlyWf
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It's the other way
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A single digit D loss would still be an extraordinary shot to the House GOP, KS-4 is one of the redder districts(Cook has it R+15, 74th reddest), there are a lot of people who can't swing a -20 from 2016.
04-11-2017 , 09:20 PM
#25677
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
I'm surprised we don't have a sweat thread; this will be a good sweat.
My guess is R's win a close one here, but will be panicking over GA next week. There is going to be a ton of R money poured into that race, not that there hasn't already been.
04-11-2017 , 09:21 PM
#25678
Money2Burn
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
I'm not sure if we should even want Spicer to be done... The odds Trump replaces him with someone worse for the country seem pretty high. Whoever has that job will be tasked with defending the indefensible and supporting Trump's ideas and policies... So we want someone who can be a running joke and who does a pretty poor job of lying and dressing up their racism/bigotry/etc.
Yeah. Spicer being competent means minimizing and normalizing the things the Trump administration is doing.
04-11-2017 , 09:22 PM
#25679
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
A single digit D loss would still be an extraordinary shot to the House GOP, KS-4 is one of the redder districts(Cook has it R+15, 74th reddest), there are a lot of people who can't swing a -20 from 2016.
It is definitely going to be single digits. Probably low single digits.
04-11-2017 , 09:24 PM
#25680
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyA
It's going to be close. At this point, I think the D is going to win:

Look at the two counties 100% in - Pawnee 44/18 vs. 117/18 in 2016 for Price; Comanche 282/90 vs. 686/88. So D's vote total about the same, while R vote total about 40% in both counties. Apply that to total 2016 results and you get a D victory.

Of course it's the two smallest counties, but given that the results in both are consistent, it's a good sign.
If that holds, I think it'll be reeeeallly close.
04-11-2017 , 09:24 PM
#25681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Isn't inciting violence against forum rules?
Lol ya I'm inciting violence. Give me a break. You are the single dumbest person I have ever come across in real life.
04-11-2017 , 09:24 PM
#25682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Money2Burn
Yeah. Spicer being competent means minimizing and normalizing the things the Trump administration is doing.
they're gonna replace him with, literally, a 13-year-old republican party campaign volunteer from a small town somewhere, daring the media to come after her
04-11-2017 , 09:25 PM
#25683
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyA
It's going to be close. At this point, I think the D is going to win:

Look at the two counties 100% in - Pawnee 44/18 vs. 117/18 in 2016 for Price; Comanche 282/90 vs. 686/88. So D's vote total about the same, while R vote total about 40% in both counties. Apply that to total 2016 results and you get a D victory.

Of course it's the two smallest counties, but given that the results in both are consistent, it's a good sign.
One more county (Kiowa) 100% in and the trend continues - 421/90 vs. 824/80. Look like voters in strong R districts just not showing up. Off course the trend in Wichita could be complete different than in the tiny counties.
04-11-2017 , 09:30 PM
#25684
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyA
One more county (Kiowa) 100% in and the trend continues - 421/90 vs. 824/80. Look like voters in strong R districts just not showing up. Off course the trend in Wichita could be complete different than in the tiny counties.
Well, Pompeo won Sedgwick County (and every county)... He won it 104.5K to 60.6K, so by a wide margin. Thompson (D) is up 17.1K to 11.3K right now, but only 2 of 257 precincts in the county are reporting.

He's also up in Harvey County 1,700 to 1,248 (57%-42%) with 7 of 38 precincts reporting. Pompeo won that one 9K-4.4K.
04-11-2017 , 09:31 PM
#25685
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lol rachel DEVASTATING spicer rn
04-11-2017 , 09:35 PM
#25686
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
I'm as anti Trump as they come, but this feels a lot like an oops and nothing like Holocaust denial or what have you.
Even if the first comment was an oops, how can you justify the two attempts to explain it?
04-11-2017 , 09:38 PM
#25687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Lol ya I'm inciting violence. Give me a break. You are the single dumbest person I have ever come across in real life.
you incited violence when you accused me of being a fan of two and a half men in the OOTV thread, i almost raged at the thought
04-11-2017 , 09:40 PM
#25688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Lol ya I'm inciting violence. Give me a break. You are the single dumbest person I have ever come across in real life.
WOW. Inciting violence and a personal attack.

Double whammy.
04-11-2017 , 09:41 PM
#25689
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
Well, Pompeo won Sedgwick County (and every county)... He won it 104.5K to 60.6K, so by a wide margin. Thompson (D) is up 17.1K to 11.3K right now, but only 2 of 257 precincts in the county are reporting.

He's also up in Harvey County 1,700 to 1,248 (57%-42%) with 7 of 38 precincts reporting. Pompeo won that one 9K-4.4K.
Anyone have a link to follow these results?
04-11-2017 , 09:41 PM
#25690
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Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol
you incited violence when you accused me of being a fan of two and a half men in the OOTV thread, i almost raged at the thought
I'll mea culpa to that one.
04-11-2017 , 09:42 PM
#25691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
Anyone have a link to follow these results?
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/res...ion-district-4

2016 results here for comparison:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/res...-pompeo-giroux
04-11-2017 , 09:42 PM
#25692
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
Even if the first comment was an oops, how can you justify the two attempts to explain it?
the real nazis in the white house are trying to walk a fine line between their true political ideology and the facade they try to keep up to provide plausible deniability to people that might be paying attention to what they're doing and saying.
Last edited by ScreaminAsian; 04-11-2017 at 09:53 PM.
04-11-2017 , 09:42 PM
#25693
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04-11-2017 , 09:46 PM
#25694
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A decent sized county (Cowley) finally fully reported:

3,179/2,422 vs. 7,711/2,784. So 41%/87%. If those percents apply to entire 2016 voting, you'd have essentially a tie.
04-11-2017 , 09:48 PM
#25695
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Estes now slightly past Thompson with a bunch of rural counties in, looking like Estes will pull this out but it will be a squeaker
04-11-2017 , 09:49 PM
#25696
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It's pretty much over. R is going to win, but they should be terrified of next week.
04-11-2017 , 09:51 PM
#25697
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@redistrict
@nate_cohn
@forecasterenten

The main twitters I follow during this sort of thing, any others I'm missing for future elections?
04-11-2017 , 09:52 PM
#25698
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m_reed05
It's pretty much over. R is going to win, but they should be terrified of next week.
Yeah there are two rural counties that haven't reported at all and Thompson has been losing his margin in Sedgwick as election day votes come in, but still, DCCC absolutely ****ing dropped the ball here
04-11-2017 , 09:54 PM
#25699
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54% of vote in, Estes up 1k votes/1.5%

2-4pt Dem loss would be a nice moral victory, I suppose
04-11-2017 , 09:54 PM
#25700
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m_reed05
It's pretty much over. R is going to win, but they should be terrified of next week.
Really? Only 66 of 257 precincts in wichita have reported whereas most of rural has come in. I don't know jack about Wichita or Kansas, but doesn't htat bode well for the dem given that it's currently a one point race?
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