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Old 04-18-2019, 03:26 PM   #14576
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Suggest thread title change: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: Harm to Ongoing Matter
Theres probably no hope for an "Im ****ed" title is there?
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:34 PM   #14577
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Theres probably no hope for an "Im ****ed" title is there?
+1 to "Harm to ongoing matter". "I'm ****ed" (unlike "you're ****ed") doesn't ring true.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:36 PM   #14578
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Theres probably no hope for an "Im ****ed" title is there?
Perhaps on 11/4/20. Although I think we should change the title daily at that point.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:37 PM   #14579
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Dems were able to control the narrative with mainstream voters during the Clinton impeachment and say “hey, these guys have gone too far, who even cares about a blowjob.” That’s a lot harder to pull off with a report like this.
I dunno, what does a report like this tell the mainstream low-info voter that makes them say "wow, no way I can vote for this crook again"? Trump is obviously a terrifically corrupt dude but I don't think there's a smoking gun that makes Joe Blow in Youngstown say "holy ****, that's wild", even if that's what most of us visiting a politics forum every day are saying. imo you can tell Joe Blow about Russian hacking groups and attempts at backchannel communications or whatever and watch his eyes glaze over.

I think you're right that the defense the GOP has to play here is weaker than "a blowjob? seriously?", but that still doesn't mean low-info voters will care.

Back in the Nixon days, you had a really clear and concise narrative: "GOP operatives broke in to the DNC headquarters and Nixon personally worked to illegally cover it up." What sentence like that can you write about the Mueller report?
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:39 PM   #14580
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I kinda think the optics of Republicans voting against impeaching a clearly corrupt administration are terrible for their brand and good for the Dems. Like I really think this is hella different from Whitewater.
^^This... The Dems can Structure it to start because off the lack off documents being given out plus the refusals of the Tax returns.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:41 PM   #14581
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Bernie is not "the Democrats". The Democrats can investigate the **** out of everything and Trump will still lose depending on who he runs against.
This...
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:42 PM   #14582
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I dunno, what does a report like this tell the mainstream low-info voter that makes them say "wow, no way I can vote for this crook again"? Trump is obviously a terrifically corrupt dude but I don't think there's a smoking gun that makes Joe Blow in Youngstown say "holy ****, that's wild", even if that's what most of us visiting a politics forum every day are saying. imo you can tell Joe Blow about Russian hacking groups and attempts at backchannel communications or whatever and watch his eyes glaze over.

I think you're right that the defense the GOP has to play here is weaker than "a blowjob? seriously?", but that still doesn't mean low-info voters will care.

Back in the Nixon days, you had a really clear and concise narrative: "GOP operatives broke in to the DNC headquarters and Nixon personally worked to illegally cover it up." What sentence like that can you write about the Mueller report?
The Trump Campaign worked with Russians with close ties to Putin to influence the outcome of the election, then Donald Trump personally worked to try to obstruct the investigations.

The GOP could argue that they weren't IN the Russian government, and the AG said NO OBSTRUCTION! But in reality, their entire response to everything will be about as simple as "A blowjob? Seriously?"

It'll be: "NO COLLUSION! NO OBSTRUCTION! TOTAL WITCH HUNT! PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!!!!! MAGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

And it'll work, which is why we don't want to make that the fight.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:42 PM   #14583
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

So if Dems win in 2020 - does the new AG see the full report - including the redacted grand jury stuff?
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:44 PM   #14584
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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This...
I think Trump is probably a favorite to win re-election right now, all things considered.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:45 PM   #14585
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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So if Dems win in 2020 - does the new AG see the full report - including the redacted grand jury stuff?
I would assume so... right before President Biden issues blanket pardons to the entire Trump administration to heal the country.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:47 PM   #14586
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Steny Hoyer says impeachment "is not worthwhile at this point," and he says Americans "will make a judgment" in the next election.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:53 PM   #14587
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I think Democrats should hold hearings “to decide what to do” on repeat until November, 2020.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:53 PM   #14588
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Here's another sentence you could use: The Trump campaign knew that Russians were committing crimes to help Trump win the 2016 election, and at the very least they didn't alert the authorities and thus allowed the plan to be carried out... then Trump obstructed the investigation on 10 separate instances.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:56 PM   #14589
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I think Trump is probably a favorite to win re-election right now, all things considered.
Me too Cuse....

And I'm not totally settled on impeachment, but just think it's got to happen for the dem base to be fired up and I'm looking at this in a simple way that Trump has what 45% at most as solid base, Dems then have 55% to get out and vote + with the fiasco the last campaign the lefty Dems are watching and waiting for the fix to be in and an excuse not to bother again.

If Biden or Camila runs the ticket then you guys are screwed imo Or any other establishment candidate.. Its bernie or the highway imo.

Also Pelosi could run the Impeachment as a progressive issue that they want, giving established candidates the platform to campaign for healthcare etc, also giving them a bit off cover.

It's time the Democrats started to use their wide base of people with their skillsets coming to the fore.
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Old 04-18-2019, 03:59 PM   #14590
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I would assume so... right before President Biden issues blanket pardons to the entire Trump administration to heal the country.
I remember reading an article on an incident that happened in Palestine. Pictures surfaced of a kid cowering in fear next to her father - seeking cover from gunfire. The next frame the kid was dead in her father's lap. Massive outrage ensued - lots of violence.

Anyway some times later - the Israeli's figured out that the second picture was doctored and the kid wasn't actually shot (I think - don't freak out on me if I have this wrong). So hey - vindicated right? They didn't even mention it in the news because the damage was already done and it would just cause more problems. The court of public opinion is funny like that - there's a lot of cases where you can't win.

That's probably what it's going to be like with Trump if/when we make it out of this nightmare. He'll skate on everything just to make it go away.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:04 PM   #14591
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Me too Cuse....

And I'm not totally settled on impeachment, but just think it's got to happen for the dem base to be fired up and I'm looking at this in a simple way that Trump has what 45% at most as solid base, Dems then have 55% to get out and vote + with the fiasco the last campaign the lefty Dems are watching and waiting for the fix to be in and an excuse not to bother again.

If Biden or Camila runs the ticket then you guys are screwed imo Or any other establishment candidate.. Its bernie or the highway imo.

Also Pelosi could run the Impeachment as a progressive issue that they want, giving established candidates the platform to campaign for healthcare etc, also giving them a bit off cover.

It's time the Democrats started to use their wide base of people with their skillsets coming to the fore.
The problem is that we can't just run on progressive issues and use impeachment to rile up our base and expect that to lead to a win... It might help us in California, New York, etc, but it'll hurt us in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Then you'll have Trump using the full weight and force of the office and the executive branch to influence the election, and he basically now has a green light to collude with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and whoever else wants to get in on the action. Throw in voter suppression, leaving behind some power cords for some voting machines in predominantly black districts, etc... and I'm quite concerned.

I mean, if Trump tells Barr to investigate Bernie/Beto/Biden/Buttigieg/Warren/Harris/etc a month before the election, is Barr going to be like, "No, sir, Mr. President, that's wrong."??? I doubt it.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:07 PM   #14592
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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That's probably what it's going to be like with Trump if/when we make it out of this nightmare. He'll skate on everything just to make it go away.
I agree, and for decades we'll be having the arguments like we have now about Iran-Contra... about what Trump knew and when he knew it and whether he was in on it. It's pretty easy to find people who will argue all day long that Reagan and Bush 41 clearly didn't know anything about the conspiracy.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:08 PM   #14593
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I think Trump is probably a favorite to win re-election right now, all things considered.
It's really tough to defeat a sitting president in good economic times. I wonder if it's ever happened?

Jimmy Carter had a national malaise. Seriously what the **** was going on in the 70s? It's like the whole country just gave up.

Bush I had a recession *and* got fragged from the right by Gingrich.

No one is fragging Trump from the right.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:10 PM   #14594
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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No one is fragging Trump from the right.
Somewhere Bill Weld is shedding a quiet tear that you aren't taking his left-fragging seriously
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:11 PM   #14595
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/sta...55088624492544
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:12 PM   #14596
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I think Trump is probably a favorite to win re-election right now, all things considered.
I don't think so. But probably not a lot of folks agree.

Pennsylvania and Michigan are trending blue in special elections and the midterm. Those states were a lot more anti-Hillary than pro Trump. It may come down to Wisconsin and Arizona. Arizona is not out of reach for the democrats. Also Florida and Ohio but won't be surprised if Trump takes both again. If I'm right about Penn, Mich, and the 1ME, then Trump needs to take FL, OH, AZ, GA, NC, IA just for 269-269. Just might happen.

I don't see Trump winning any states that went blue in 2020. Do you?

269-269 tie not so unlikely. Only thing that has to happen is for MI and PN to go blue and for all of ME to go blue but everything else remain the same as 2016 i.e. WI, AZ, OH, FL stay red.

Also 25-25 in the House not THAT unlikely. I believe it's 26-22 R right now with Penn currently R but great chance to go D, Florida is 14-13 R right now so that could change, and one other state I can't recall. If it's Wisconsin then forget about it, that state is gerrymandered and the supreme court will be R for another decade or two.

If it's 269-269 in EC, 25-25 in house, and 50-50 in senate (I think very unlikely democrats gain net 3 after Jones/Gardner cancel each other out, but hey maybe) then Pence names himself president and SC rules 5-4 that it stands.

Last edited by Henry_Sugar; 04-18-2019 at 04:22 PM.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:14 PM   #14597
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Schiff's statement just now was straight fire.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:15 PM   #14598
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

@Cuse.... That's the scary thing now, he has unlimited power with Barr at the helm. Its actually a scary thought what he will try/do, I feel for you peeps and wish you guys a Major break in going forward.
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:22 PM   #14599
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Jimmy Carter had a national malaise. Seriously what the **** was going on in the 70s? It's like the whole country just gave up.
OPEC ****ed us + Nixon Shock
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Old 04-18-2019, 04:22 PM   #14600
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I think Trump is probably a favorite to win re-election right now, all things considered.
Are you pricing in the DNP ****show as they try to block Bernie's nomination?
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