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Old 01-04-2019, 05:49 PM   #1126
dth123451
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Didnít Team Trump decrease withholdings to make the tax cut FEEL bigger? I.e. Awval feels like he is getting $20 a week but come tax time he finds out its actually $5 a week?
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Old 01-04-2019, 05:50 PM   #1127
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by superleeds View Post
Hi Cuse,

1. He ain't taking that deal (as if any of it would be acted on in good faith anyway)
2. There ain't no 2
1. I don't care if he takes it, it makes the Dems look like they're trying to re-open the government while Trump and the GOP look like crybabies. It's win-win. I'm not worried about acting in good faith because we're going to link it all legislatively so it's one whole bill.

DEMS HAVE LEVERAGE WITH AN EXPIRATION DATE. WHEN YOU HAVE LEVERAGE YOU ****ING USE IT, YOU DON'T HOLD IT UNTIL IT EXPIRES.

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Some of you are like the "Don't make deals with fish at the final table!" crowd.

Um, but I got 95% of first place money.

"I don't care - don't make deals! You have an edge."
And unlike a poker tournament, that edge is going to evaporate at some point. Dems may not get 50 in the Senate even if they win the White House in 2020 and the House in 2020 and 2022. Even if they get 50 they may not hold their caucus together to pass anything significant. Making a favorable deal here IS using your edge. Saying **** off is more like taking an ICM chop when you have edge and a comfortable bankroll.

Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol View Post
man i like you and respect your take on things generally but this post is hot garbage. i mean that list is pretty lol but for real, trump is gonna agree to abolish ICE? you're an otherwise reasonable guy, so i want some of the drugs you're currently consuming, i haven't tripped in a while. for real, PM me.
I dgaf whether he agrees or not, it's win-win as far as I'm concerned. He may trade ICE for his wall. He'd get to run on the wall again, which is a pretty big thing for him. "Vote for me and we're guaranteed to have another $12 billion to finish the wall, on top of the $8 we already got."

Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol View Post
also dems don't have an "edge", they aren't going to extract concessions out of the GOP just for funding the government
Stop trying to reframe it that way. The Dems are not holding the government hostage, the GOP is. The Dems are not getting concessions for re-opening the government, they're getting concessions for letting Trump out of the corner he just backed the GOP into.

Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol View Post
and if they tried that then the tables would really turn
Not at all. Trump shut the government down. The Dems passed a clean CR and Mitch wouldn't vote on it even though he passed the same thing unanimously in the Senate. These are the facts and they are not disputable.

The Dems are not holding the government hostage, the Dems are simply keeping Trump boxed into the corner he created. At this point they can allow this to end in two ways:

1. Trump eats a huge plate of crow, gives up on the wall funding for now and re-opens the government on a clean CR.

2. They extract painful concessions for wall funding.

Again, because you're not getting it so far. The Dems are NOT holding the government hostage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol View Post
and then there's a legitimate argument that democrats are being unreasonable/obstructing/at fault
LOL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
I think we need to establish some common ground. First of all does anyone argue any of these things is NOT true?
  1. $5B is mostly a symbolic # that will barely break ground on a tiny section of wall
  2. Trump himself does not care about a wall - only about not pissing off his supporters
  3. Higher functioning members of Trump's base, and propagandists like Ann Coulter also realize the $5B is mostly symbolic - but approve of the message it sends
  4. Country Club/moderate suburban Republicans don't care about a wall either way
  5. Democrats of course realize the $5B is a symbolic win for Trump, which they have the power to deny
  6. Almost none of Trump's base knows what the border actually looks like right now
  7. Trump probably can't go to Mar-a-Lago or golf until this is over due to terrible optics (although nothing would shock me)
  8. The National Parks are very popular
I mostly agree. I think Trump is high on his own supply with regard to Fox and actually wants a wall and thinks it's good, but ultimately doesn't care that much about it just like he doesn't care much about any policy beyond caring about winning and his own personal gains.

I think at this point a lot of Country Club Republicans are not moderates and are racist/dumb/brainwashed enough to want the wall pretty badly. But on some level they are almost as content complaining about not getting the wall as they would be having the wall.

Bolded is so so so so true.
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Old 01-04-2019, 05:51 PM   #1128
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

EIC alone for people is several thousand dollars with kids. Add in child tax credits and whatever they over paid in withhold and you get a very large tax refund. Here are the EIC levels for people with kids last year if you qualified. No idea how the bigliest tax cut in human history changed things.

The maximum amount of credit for Tax Year 2017 is:

$6,318 with three or more qualifying children
$5,616 with two qualifying children
$3,400 with one qualifying child

You also get your child tax credit on top of that. So yes if you have lots of kids and hit the sweet spot for EIC your tax refund is 6-10k even though your withholding for the year in many cases was like $2000
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Old 01-04-2019, 05:52 PM   #1129
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

There is one factor that people are missing. Considering that those who are against the wall are against it to a large extent because of what it symbolizes. Which is that the people of the world are pretty well aware of what is going on here and would actually not be that horrified if a partial wall was built if Democrats extracted major concessions for it.

I once had an argument with a friend who was bragging about a high stakes gambler he knew who refused to jump into a Las Vegas hotel pool with all his clothes on in front of all the guests, even for the $100,000 the other gambler was offering him. He didn't understand that there was a big difference between $10,000 and $100,000. Not to the gamblers but to the bystanders who were witnessing their shouting taunts to each other. What my friend was missing was that the bystanders would have a different opinion about those two numbers as far as their feelings regarding the two gamblers. Some of them would look down on a guy who made a fool of himself for 10K but would consider the other guy a fool if his 100k offer was accepted.

I realize that I used a yucky trivial anecdote to make a point about a far more seious situation, but the concepts are the same.
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Old 01-04-2019, 05:56 PM   #1130
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Some of you are like the "Don't make deals with fish at the final table!" crowd.

Um, but I got 95% of first place money.

"I don't care - don't make deals! You have an edge."
Yea it seems like people are way too worried about losing a negotiation to Mr. Art of the Deal.

If Pelosi can't outsmart Trump at the bargaining table, WAAF anyway. Might as well try to make some legitimate progress.
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Old 01-04-2019, 05:57 PM   #1131
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I'd jump in the pool for 10k
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Old 01-04-2019, 05:57 PM   #1132
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I'd jump in the pool for 10k


God damn right
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:00 PM   #1133
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I'd jump in a pool for $100
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:01 PM   #1134
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Im in the pool right now...
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:08 PM   #1135
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I'm playing pocket pool.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:12 PM   #1136
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
I'm talking about motivating OUR BASE you clueless moron. I explicitly said in my post that the right doesn't care about the shutdown so it won't affect them. So yes, you are still strawmaning me in this very post unless you just can't read.

Fighting to actually get some semblance of an agenda passed whether it happens or not isn't a terrible argument. Saying it is better to just throw your hands in the air, say it's impossible and do nothing is the terrible argument.
I realize I'm way behind here, but I'm part of the base you're talking about, and if Trump gets his wall I will be devasted and pissed at the Dems no matter what they get in return.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:16 PM   #1137
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

The point isn’t to actually get something great in return for the wall, it’s to get trump to agree to it then have Mitch say no and delight at the friendly fire.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:20 PM   #1138
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

You have to remember, Trump doesn’t care about policy AT ALL. Early on he said something along the lines of “why doesnt Medicare just cover everyone” and after one of these school shootings he initially ripped GOPers for being afraid of the NRA. He actually has a pretty good instinct for what is popular.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:20 PM   #1139
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

People being devastated to get M4A in exchange for a partial section of the, likely ****tily built, wall need to take a deep breath and step back from the fainting couches.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:24 PM   #1140
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

lots of strat discussed about best way to play hand w/ regards to policy, but isnt best strat to defeat trumpism = not give him 1c for the wall
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:26 PM   #1141
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by kerowo View Post
Giving 1 penny for the wall would be the one thing that would me to not vote in the 2020 election.

If you arenít willing to vote out Trump then you are a lost cause anyway
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:27 PM   #1142
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
People being devastated to get M4A in exchange for a partial section of the, likely ****tily built, wall need to take a deep breath and step back from the fainting couches.
It's the unrealistic prospect of this which we are aghast at. Tell you what, if I see 2 random gamblers arguing over whether a fair bet is 10K or 100K to dive into a pool, on my way home tonight, I'll hop on this bandwagon.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:27 PM   #1143
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Trump confirms he said this to Schumer.

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Old 01-04-2019, 06:31 PM   #1144
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Nicholasp27 View Post
If you arenít willing to vote out Trump then you are a lost cause anyway
Bite me. Paying a hostage taker so you can maybe get a prize is as immoral as anything Trump is doing.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:33 PM   #1145
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

These aren't literally people with a gun to their heads. Every negotiation between the president and congress isn't a hostage situation.

If anything it's the other way around because the wall hurts no one directly, whereas DACA would help a ton of people tremendously.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:34 PM   #1146
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by eyebooger View Post
Trump confirms he said this to Schumer.

Which probably means he's ready to cave.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:42 PM   #1147
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
These aren't literally people with a gun to their heads. Every negotiation between the president and congress isn't a hostage situation.

If anything it's the other way around because the wall hurts no one directly, whereas DACA would help a ton of people tremendously.
A lot of people are suggesting that because the wall costs up to 100 billion that giving him 5 billion is no big deal, it won't do anything and therefore we should use it as leverage to try and get something else passed. I think the danger in giving 1 dollar specifically for the wall is that it legitimizes it and is the wedge for the next time he tries to get money for it.

Not having a wall is more important to me than DACA. Giving any credence to the wall demeans us as a country, more so than something like DACA builds us up.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:43 PM   #1148
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
There is one factor that people are missing. Considering that those who are against the wall are against it to a large extent because of what it symbolizes. Which is that the people of the world are pretty well aware of what is going on here and would actually not be that horrified if a partial wall was built if Democrats extracted major concessions for it.

I once had an argument with a friend who was bragging about a high stakes gambler he knew who refused to jump into a Las Vegas hotel pool with all his clothes on in front of all the guests, even for the $100,000 the other gambler was offering him. He didn't understand that there was a big difference between $10,000 and $100,000. Not to the gamblers but to the bystanders who were witnessing their shouting taunts to each other. What my friend was missing was that the bystanders would have a different opinion about those two numbers as far as their feelings regarding the two gamblers. Some of them would look down on a guy who made a fool of himself for 10K but would consider the other guy a fool if his 100k offer was accepted.

I realize that I used a yucky trivial anecdote to make a point about a far more seious situation, but the concepts are the same.

Channelling the spirit of Johnny Hughes there klansky.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:46 PM   #1149
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Another totally coherent briefing going on. Imagine thinking Trump is smart.

Also, just imagine being Mike Pence.
Words bro.

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Old 01-04-2019, 06:47 PM   #1150
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by bobman0330 View Post
Why don't you just set up an autodraft to put $100 per pay period into an online savings account? You won't have the money burning a whole in your pocket, and you'll make a couple hundred bucks in interest every year. Hell, take $200 a year and then owe the IRS money when you file.


You might make $1 in interest
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