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Old 03-07-2019, 04:03 AM   #10676
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Jiggymike View Post
Also for everyone saying AZ might go blue: not happening. I know we just elected a Dem senator but her opponent was garbage and the mediocre Republican governor got re-elected by a massive margin; Dems didnít even bother running ads. I guess itís more in play than past elections but I wouldnít give it greater than 20% chance to flip and as wheatrich said it would have to be a Biden type.
otoh, with a margin of 3.5%, AZ was behind only FL/PA/MI/WA among red states for how close it was (beating GA and NC in being moderately close, then a large gap before you get to OH/TX/IA).
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Old 03-07-2019, 04:52 AM   #10677
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Yeah sorry, I might not have read your post in context.. I just skipped to the end of the thread. My overall point was that 2020 could be a huge turnout surge (~60%+) with one candidate getting over 70 million votes. If thatís the case (which isnít crazy given house dem candidates almost beat Trumps vote total in the midterms[!!]) you donít even really have to go state by state. Republicans canít realistically overcome a 5 point popular vote deficit even with their electoral college advantages. Of course there are reasons why that might be a bad way to look at 2020. Liberal apathy is one of the most powerful forces in American politics and the midterms could be an anomaly with presidential turnout being the standard 55% giving republicans a chance to get lucky again or even win the popular vote out right.

But if I had to bet I would say the dem in 2020 breaks Obamaís total vote count record from 2008 which would make it virtually impossible for Trump to overcome and win reelection.
While it's certainly possible that 2020 will be a huge turnout surge, there's another possibility that I don't think people have talked about enough. What if the turnout in 2018 was really just the people who usually vote every four years coming out in the midterm election cause they were pissed? In other words, did the presidential year voter base actually expand in 2018, or did the presidential year voters just show up in the midterm for a change?

That thought scares me quite a bit, but it's a possibility.

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How big of a margin do you think the popular vote could get realistically without the Dems winning the presidency? Hillary won by 2.8 million.

And how big does that margin have to get before switching to popular vote is actually talked about in the mainstream? (Knowing full well it will never happen)
I don't like to think about this too much, but it could definitely get somewhat significantly bigger than 2016. Basically as turnout due to outrage goes up, it'll go up more in blue states than red and swing states. Thus the Dem runs up even bigger margins in California, New York, Oregon, Washington, etc... The good news is, at some point that also has to translate to putting red states with big urban population centers in play (Florida, Arizona, Texas). So the realistic cap is probably somewhere between 5 million and 10 million.
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Old 03-07-2019, 04:54 AM   #10678
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Oh and by the way, as for talking about it, the conversation would go something like this:

Dems: Trump lost by six million votes and still won the electoral college. That's ridiculous!

GOP: Dems only "won" by running up a huge margin in California and New York on fraudulent votes by illegal immigrants. If you only count the real votes, he would have won. The electoral college saved us from Dems stealing the election!

Media: Is there any veracity to this claim of fraudulent votes? Let's examine it! This will be a wonderful and vigorous debate!
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:14 AM   #10679
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Jiggymike View Post
Sklansky comment an obvious joke cmon..
It was neither a joke nor racist. I was pointing out that a Floridian, or anyone else for that matter who voted for Obama, could not automatically be assumed to be someone who would not be reluctant to vote for most black people because of those three unusual aspects he had. How is my meaning not obvious?
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:31 AM   #10680
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Stay on target guys.... stay.... on... target...
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:41 AM   #10681
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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63% chance at that moment who thought his name was Tim Apple. 24% he was just joshing. 13% chance words tumble off his tongue without being processed by the brain.
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:43 AM   #10682
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I am accusing the president of a massive laundry list of serious crimes.

Sorry Charlie.

Also no racists in Florida confirmed. Although racists hate half blacks more because it means a dirty black defiled a white.

Last edited by markksman; 03-07-2019 at 06:50 AM.
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:48 AM   #10683
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/investig...506783231.html

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Source: Leaked Documents Show the U.S. Government Tracking Journalists and Immigration Advocates Through a Secret Database
Quote:
The intelligence gathering efforts were done under the umbrella of “Operation Secure Line,” the operation designated to monitor the migrant caravan, according to the source.

The documents list people who officials think should be targeted for screening at the border.

The individuals listed include ten journalists, seven of whom are U.S. citizens, a U.S. attorney, and 47 people from the U.S. and other countries, labeled as organizers, instigators or their roles “unknown.” The target list includes advocates from organizations like Border Angels and Pueblo Sin Fronteras.
Standard.
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Old 03-07-2019, 07:33 AM   #10684
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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i'm gonna live forever
FAME!

Last edited by Soulman; 03-07-2019 at 07:35 AM. Reason: Sorry
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Old 03-07-2019, 07:50 AM   #10685
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

so we've reached the point now where dersh is being named in headlines as a pedo

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeffre...afficking-ring

Quote:
Famed attorney Alan Dershowitz was accused of involvement in billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sex-trafficking ring by an attorney for one of Epstein’s victims, who claimed in federal court on Wednesday that the release of sealed documents will prove it.

Paul Cassell, who represents Virginia Roberts Giuffre, told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that the testimony of other witnesses will show Dershowitz’s involvement in the alleged trafficking of “his close friend Jeffrey Epstein.”

“When all the records come out it will show that Epstein and [Epstein’s alleged madam Ghislaine] Maxwell were trafficking girls to the benefit of his friends, including Mr. Dershowitz,” Cassell said in oral arguments for a case filed by the Miami Herald to unseal a collection of court documents relating to Giuffre’s now settled lawsuit against Maxwell.
weeeeeeeeeeee

Quote:
Dershowitz’s attorney, Andrew Celli, asked for three documents pertaining to his client to be released immediately because the 81-year-old professor’s “reputation has been besmirched.” Celli denied Dershowitz was collaborating with Cernovich.

“Let me be absolutely clear: Mr. Dershowitz is happy and prepared and eager to unseal all documents in this case no matter what they say about him,” Celli said. “He believes, your honor, in the marketplace of ideas.”
wat

also telling imo that alan says "i havent seen or spoken to jeffrey in years" as if that matters one iota

Last edited by +rep_lol; 03-07-2019 at 07:55 AM.
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Old 03-07-2019, 07:56 AM   #10686
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
It was neither a joke nor racist. I was pointing out that a Floridian, or anyone else for that matter who voted for Obama, could not automatically be assumed to be someone who would not be reluctant to vote for most black people because of those three unusual aspects he had. How is my meaning not obvious?


Your meaning was obvious. You donít need to explain it to us like we are morons. Because we arenít morons.
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Old 03-07-2019, 08:11 AM   #10687
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

LOL @ racist voters considering Obama half white and a Harvard graduate!
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Old 03-07-2019, 09:22 AM   #10688
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I don’t always vote for black people, but when I do I pick the ones who are half AFRICAN.
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Old 03-07-2019, 09:32 AM   #10689
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
It was neither a joke nor racist. I was pointing out that a Floridian, or anyone else for that matter who voted for Obama, could not automatically be assumed to be someone who would not be reluctant to vote for most black people because of those three unusual aspects he had. How is my meaning not obvious?
You're right that we probably have to think of racial prejudice (or resentments, or however phrased) as only one input into a more complicated process that most people go through when choosing how to vote. The Obama "we're voting for the ------" anecdote is famous. But you highlighted a set of attributes that I doubt are that relevant: the nationality of his father, that he was raised by a white mother, and that he went to Harvard Law.

As far as nationality, I've never seen any data that would suggest that Americans' racial prejudices are modified by nationality. If you meant that they would view him more positively because his father was Kenyan I think you're wrong: consider the birther movement. Consider Trump's comments about "****hole countries". I think those are more representative of how people with racial resentments view Africa. As far as being mixed race, in American history there's no indication this has ever caused people to be less prejudiced, cf. the "one-drop rule". There's some evidence that people are more prejudiced towards those of darker skin color, but that isn't directly related to being mixed race in a straightforward way. As far as going to Harvard Law, I doubt most Americans care about it specifically, although I think it's probably relevant that Obama presented himself as a very mainstream American candidate with familiar institutional credentials for a politician. But I think it's far more important that he was just a very good politician, i.e. a great speaker, great with people, likeable, etc. He also discussed race in a very careful way so as not to provoke white Americans very much.

So I think I agree with your general point that voting for Obama specifically isn't evidence against the proposition that a voter might be generally less inclined to vote for a black person than a white person (and we know there were Obama-Trump voters), but I think you're focused on the wrong reasons why Obama might be a special case.
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:24 AM   #10690
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Stay on target guys.... stay.... on... target...
talk to me Goose
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:25 AM   #10691
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:25 AM   #10692
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Old 03-07-2019, 10:27 AM   #10693
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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This seems like something an innocent person would say.
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:29 AM   #10694
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Cohen's closed-door testimony got him SHOOK
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:30 AM   #10695
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
Mr. Cohen told the prosecutors in Manhattan that the pardon discussions happened in the aftermath of searches that the authorities conducted on his residence and office in April 2017. He described to the prosecutors how a lawyer who was considering representing him, Robert J. Costello, spoke with Mr. Giuliani.

Prosecutors have obtained a cryptic email Mr. Costello sent Mr. Cohen assuring him that he had raised some issue of importance with Mr. Giuliani, according to the people briefed on the matter
Okay if this is true does that mean Cohen perjured himself when he said he never sought and would not accept a pardon from Trump?
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:39 AM   #10696
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:47 AM   #10697
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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What happened to "I didn't know anything about it"?
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:51 AM   #10698
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Weíre gonna need more dog cages.
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:53 AM   #10699
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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What happened to "I didn't know anything about it"?
"You'll have to ask my attorney Michael Cohen about that"
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:54 AM   #10700
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Half African AFRICAN, raised by white mother, who graduated Harvard Law School.
I honestly canít tell whether this post is meant as a joke/self-parody or you actually have a point?
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