Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte
Yeah sorry, I might not have read your post in context.. I just skipped to the end of the thread. My overall point was that 2020 could be a huge turnout surge (~60%+) with one candidate getting over 70 million votes. If that’s the case (which isn’t crazy given house dem candidates almost beat Trumps vote total in the midterms[!!]) you don’t even really have to go state by state. Republicans can’t realistically overcome a 5 point popular vote deficit even with their electoral college advantages. Of course there are reasons why that might be a bad way to look at 2020. Liberal apathy is one of the most powerful forces in American politics and the midterms could be an anomaly with presidential turnout being the standard 55% giving republicans a chance to get lucky again or even win the popular vote out right.
But if I had to bet I would say the dem in 2020 breaks Obama’s total vote count record from 2008 which would make it virtually impossible for Trump to overcome and win reelection.
While it's certainly possible that 2020 will be a huge turnout surge, there's another possibility that I don't think people have talked about enough. What if the turnout in 2018 was really just the people who usually vote every four years coming out in the midterm election cause they were pissed? In other words, did the presidential year voter base actually expand in 2018, or did the presidential year voters just show up in the midterm for a change?
That thought scares me quite a bit, but it's a possibility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tabbaker
How big of a margin do you think the popular vote could get realistically without the Dems winning the presidency? Hillary won by 2.8 million.
And how big does that margin have to get before switching to popular vote is actually talked about in the mainstream? (Knowing full well it will never happen)
I don't like to think about this too much, but it could definitely get somewhat significantly bigger than 2016. Basically as turnout due to outrage goes up, it'll go up more in blue states than red and swing states. Thus the Dem runs up even bigger margins in California, New York, Oregon, Washington, etc... The good news is, at some point that also has to translate to putting red states with big urban population centers in play (Florida, Arizona, Texas). So the realistic cap is probably somewhere between 5 million and 10 million.