The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: Harm to Ongoing Matter - Page 426 - Politics and Economics

Yeah, I mean in the context of what I was responding to (that Trump needs to carry all of FL, MI, WI, PA), I think you have to start from 2016. If you're saying he needs to carry all of those four, I think you're just assuming he's carried everything else he carried in 2016, right?

I don't know if 2008 is a good one to use for 2020. I can't see Ohio or Indiana going blue, for example, but Arizona could. North Carolina would be in play or lean Dem in a free/fair election - we'll see if they have one there. So would Georgia, for that matter - they won't be having one.

But anyway I think the likelihood of the 2008 map being the best basis for 2020 is pretty low, even if the total electoral vote expected value is closer to 2008 than any other recent election. (I don't think it is yet, but it could be.)

In other words, the way the parties are aligned and based on the Trump coalition and what states are in play, it's better to start from 2016.

Yeah sorry, I might not have read your post in context.. I just skipped to the end of the thread. My overall point was that 2020 could be a huge turnout surge (~60%+) with one candidate getting over 70 million votes. If that’s the case (which isn’t crazy given house dem candidates almost beat Trumps vote total in the midterms[!!]) you don’t even really have to go state by state. Republicans can’t realistically overcome a 5 point popular vote deficit even with their electoral college advantages. Of course there are reasons why that might be a bad way to look at 2020. Liberal apathy is one of the most powerful forces in American politics and the midterms could be an anomaly with presidential turnout being the standard 55% giving republicans a chance to get lucky again or even win the popular vote out right.

But if I had to bet I would say the dem in 2020 breaks Obama’s total vote count record from 2008 which would make it virtually impossible for Trump to overcome and win reelection.

03-06-2019 , 06:47 PM

#10627

Huehuecoyotl

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,257

Maybe he doesn't think his name is literally Tim Apple, but it sounds funny.

03-06-2019 , 06:48 PM

#10628

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

"This time young people will vote!"

Forgive me if I don't buy that one this time either.

What were the 18-35 numbers in 2018?

03-06-2019 , 07:11 PM

#10629

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,097

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

Maybe he doesn't think his name is literally Tim Apple, but it sounds funny.

Like a dumber Michael Scott with names; Mr Scott at least went from the mnemonic to the right name; Trump is too lazy to go from Apple to Apple Pie to Bake to Cook

03-06-2019 , 07:42 PM

#10630

WichitaDM

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,761

Why is Ivanka there and what does her placard say?

03-06-2019 , 07:43 PM

#10631

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,333

She's Dotard Donald's Doting Daughter

Assistant to the president

03-06-2019 , 07:44 PM

#10632

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83,097

“Princess - heir apparent to the throne”

03-06-2019 , 07:44 PM

#10633

StoppedRainingMen

Player Hater of the Year

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 53,620

It’s utterly amazing how brazenly these assclowns talk ‘will of the people’ when defending a president who lost the popular vote

03-06-2019 , 07:57 PM

#10634

realDonaldTrump

WITCH HUNT!

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 2,921

( twitter | raw text )

03-06-2019 , 08:02 PM

#10635

realDonaldTrump

WITCH HUNT!

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 2,921

( twitter | raw text )

03-06-2019 , 08:02 PM

#10636

LFS

emo gaylord

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 21,865

I don't know about anybody else but I for one am definitely accusing you of some crimes.

03-06-2019 , 08:06 PM

#10637

realDonaldTrump

WITCH HUNT!

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 2,921

( twitter | raw text )

03-06-2019 , 08:09 PM

#10638

otatop

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 12,721

Do it.

03-06-2019 , 08:11 PM

#10639

wheatrich

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 21,239

he was gonna do that anyway

03-06-2019 , 08:23 PM

#10640

Slighted

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 16,758

what's the debate thing?

03-06-2019 , 08:31 PM

#10641

chuckleslovakian

LYNCH DURRON597

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 35,894

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slighted

what's the debate thing?

Democrats didn't want to do a primary debate on Fox News because duh

03-06-2019 , 08:37 PM

#10642

Namath12

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 55,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by WichitaDM

Why is Ivanka there and what does her placard say?

I challenge anyone to provide a legitimate reason for Ivanka to be at the WH beyond the fact that she’s spawn of Trump’s orange seed. She does nothing and has no purpose

03-06-2019 , 08:41 PM

#10643

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Primary debates are Jerry Springer episodes of politics.

03-06-2019 , 08:43 PM

#10644

Paul D

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 14,689

Quote:

Originally Posted by Namath12

I challenge anyone to provide a legitimate reason for Ivanka to be at the WH beyond the fact that she’s spawn of Trump’s orange seed. She does nothing and has no purpose

Counterweight to SHS.

There you have it.

03-06-2019 , 08:48 PM

#10645

superleeds

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 4,180

She’s curtailing Trumps worse excesses I believe. At least that’s what the NYT etc report every now and again.

03-06-2019 , 08:54 PM

#10646

tomdemaine

Just tries harder

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 20,065

Quote:

Originally Posted by superleeds

Sources close to her (lol) say, she’s curtailing Trumps worse excesses I believe. At least that’s what the NYT etc report every now and again.

fyp

03-06-2019 , 08:58 PM

#10647

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by superleeds

She’s curtailing Trumps worse excesses I believe. At least that’s what the NYT etc report every now and again.

That's a myth people were telling themselves to maintain their sanity.

She's exactly as deplorable as her father is. She's just smarter and more subtle about it. I'd argue that she's probably the most dangerous Trump in the family aside from her father because of that image.

03-06-2019 , 09:03 PM

#10648

Paul D

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 14,689

Not hard to be the most dangerous in that family when her two grown up brothers are bumbling idiots, and her sister seems smart enough to want to avoid being part of the family in a professional manner.