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Old 03-06-2019, 02:44 PM   #10601
ecriture d'adulte
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
Actually, if you start from the 2016 map, Dems need three out of those four to win. Trump only needs to hold two of them, and I think Florida is a strong lean for Trump. I don't think that larger pool of Dem voters is a lock to get to participate in the 2020 election.

On the other hand, Arizona is in play for Dems.
Starting from the 2016 map is potentially a huge mistake. The 2014 midterms were the lowest turnout in history and republicans won the house popular vote by 7%. The 2018 midterms were the highest turnout since WWII and dems won by 9. 2008 is probably a better starting map.
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Old 03-06-2019, 02:44 PM   #10602
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I wonder how many toroid's are coming? Although they are lovely with a jelly center.
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Old 03-06-2019, 02:52 PM   #10603
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I wonder how many toroid's are coming? Although they are lovely with a jelly center.
Filled doughnuts aren’t toroids.
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Old 03-06-2019, 02:52 PM   #10604
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

re: Florida. We just elected a full blown trumpkin for governor so I wouldn't count on this state.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:02 PM   #10605
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Yeah but we did touch on this recently and every orevious precedent reaches out as soon as they take office and at least feign uniting. This is primarly done to set the floor for re-election. Trump has done just the opposite and tripled down on his dividing rhetoric. This means he is unlikely to get any “the devil you know” votes and likely means he is ONLY going to be pulling from those who voted for him last time. This number, due to numerous reasons will be lower than last time.

I have no confidence he will get re-elected, but he is playing opposite of the ways previous presidents tried to get re-elected during a first term. If it were a straight up vote, trump would have zero chance of getting re-elected. The issue is how the electoral college shakes out.
And voter suppression/shenanigans.

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Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte View Post
Starting from the 2016 map is potentially a huge mistake. The 2014 midterms were the lowest turnout in history and republicans won the house popular vote by 7%. The 2018 midterms were the highest turnout since WWII and dems won by 9. 2008 is probably a better starting map.
Yeah, I mean in the context of what I was responding to (that Trump needs to carry all of FL, MI, WI, PA), I think you have to start from 2016. If you're saying he needs to carry all of those four, I think you're just assuming he's carried everything else he carried in 2016, right?

I don't know if 2008 is a good one to use for 2020. I can't see Ohio or Indiana going blue, for example, but Arizona could. North Carolina would be in play or lean Dem in a free/fair election - we'll see if they have one there. So would Georgia, for that matter - they won't be having one.

But anyway I think the likelihood of the 2008 map being the best basis for 2020 is pretty low, even if the total electoral vote expected value is closer to 2008 than any other recent election. (I don't think it is yet, but it could be.)

In other words, the way the parties are aligned and based on the Trump coalition and what states are in play, it's better to start from 2016.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:06 PM   #10606
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Trump is just going to call any election that he loses fake news.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:07 PM   #10607
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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re: Florida. We just elected a full blown trumpkin for governor so I wouldn't count on this state.
Even more telling: You just booted out a Democratic senator.

I have more faith in Arizona, Iowa and even ****ing Ohio than I do in Florida.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:20 PM   #10608
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Trump knows he’s likely to go to jail once he leaves office; the only thing shielding him is the office he holds. If he loses, he won’t go quietly.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:26 PM   #10609
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Imagine the **** show that would ensue if Fox News declared Trump the winner regardless of the actual results. A huge percentage of the American population would automatically believe them over other news sources.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:51 PM   #10610
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:55 PM   #10611
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Donald Trump and a bunch of Republican Jews walked into a convention center and the punch lines were as offensive as you’d expect.
Why Does Donald Trump Keep Dissing Jews?
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:12 PM   #10612
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

"These desperate Democrats know they cannot beat President Trump in 2020, so instead they have embarked on a disgraceful witch hunt with one singular aim: topple the will of the American people and seize the power that they have zero chance at winning legitimately" Trump 2020 campaign press secretary Kayleigh McEnany

Yup, just a well functioning democracy.

There is going to be a serious issue when(if?) Trump loses in 2020.
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:13 PM   #10613
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Even more telling: You just booted out a Democratic senator.

I have more faith in Arizona, Iowa and even ****ing Ohio than I do in Florida.
Only Iowa is reasonable compared to Florida for 2020 and that's only if soybeans don't rebound.

Okay maybe Beto or Biden b/c lol olds that like centrists but nobody else that's a dem has a shot in AZ in 2020.
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:26 PM   #10614
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by biggerboat View Post
re: Florida. We just elected a full blown trumpkin for governor so I wouldn't count on this state.


Yeah but lots of states vote dem for national (e.g., senate) but rep for governor

But either way, definitely never count on Florida for anything
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:27 PM   #10615
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by eyebooger View Post
Even more telling: You just booted out a Democratic senator.



I have more faith in Arizona, Iowa and even ****ing Ohio than I do in Florida.


Yeah, dem senator going rep is a bigger issue for sure
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:29 PM   #10616
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

FL is where all the old boomers with money are going to retire, **** ain't going blue any time soon
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:57 PM   #10617
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Florida voted for the black fellow in 2012
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:00 PM   #10618
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Old 03-06-2019, 05:21 PM   #10619
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Just Normal Things.
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:26 PM   #10620
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by biggerboat View Post
re: Florida. We just elected a full blown trumpkin for governor so I wouldn't count on this state.
The margin was super thin and has been the last several elections, between boomers/retirees steadily dying off and a ton of felons being able to vote, the state will remain very close.
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:31 PM   #10621
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Old 03-06-2019, 05:33 PM   #10622
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Yeah, dem senator going rep is a bigger issue for sure
Counterpoint, we elected a Dem female as commissioner of Agriculture.
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:33 PM   #10623
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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But but Gloria borga said today that changing a lie to a lie is no biggy...
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:41 PM   #10624
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Cohen named Sekulow's name in his House testimony
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:48 PM   #10625
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Re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Cohen named Sekulow's name in his House testimony
Yeah, looks like he’s maybe not so bright after all.

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