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Old 01-04-2019, 11:26 AM   #926
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by dlk9s View Post
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/04/polit...sal/index.html



On its surface, this seems good, I guess, and is something a lot of people have wanted. But considering who is proposing it, I have got to assume there is an ulterior motive, most likely trying to limit Democrats' future strength, as these dudes see what's coming. I mean, if Cruz and Perdue are proposing something, it can't be an idea that is good for America.
I'm assuming it's an attempt to fight back at all the young progressives that were just elected.

But **** it, seems like a good idea. Wonder what the loopholes will be.
 
Old 01-04-2019, 11:28 AM   #927
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

The border wall is the biggest win Trump could ever have??? I mean 5b isn't enough to build it anyways but even assuming it was how is it a political win? It polls at like 38% and he would be responsible for it. Normally being responsible for unpopular legislation is politically damaging not a win.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:29 AM   #928
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
I just explained it. Their leverage is that they don't need to. Their base isn't going anywhere and Fox News and Hannity will just bleat it is the Dems fault over and over until it is so.

You cant say "why negotiate with bad faith actors" and then try and make arguments like leverage that assign rational behavior to the same "bad faith actors". But hey keep on with the nonsensical rants. They are at least entertaining.
we're not trying to win over the derposphere so who cares what they think? like i said before, play the ****ing tape on repeat. the wall is unpopular, go **** yourself.

also just because the GOP operates in bad faith doesn't mean they are necessarily irrational so idk what the **** you're going on about like you're scoring some points here (edit: they're totally 100% rational- their goal is to **** you)

and yes the border wall is the biggest win he could ever have, after the unpopular tax reform what else is he gonna do? it's the signature promise of his campaign ffs
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:31 AM   #929
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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because they never compromised with republicans?

lol are you insane

**** your stupid ****ing wall, deep down i think you and wheatrich actually like the idea
Of course wheatrich does. He said he thinks that without border control most of the people crossing would be gang members.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:35 AM   #930
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

The way i know rep is wrong is that we all know the dems are going to cave and give trump some or most of his 5b for the wall and likely get nothing in return. That's the world we live in whether we like it or not.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:35 AM   #931
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT, THANKS TO ME AND MY EXPERT DEALMAKING ABILITIES I GOT THOSE SPINELESS DEMS TO CAVE AND PONY UP FOR MY SIGNATURE ACHIEVEMENT

yea that message is sooooooooo much better than "obstructionist dems meow chow"
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:36 AM   #932
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Sure seems like the Dems are short on leverage here. Trump is irrational and gives zero ****s if govt services get suspended and federal employees have to donate plasma to make rent. Not many people are blaming Senate Republicans, so McConnel isn’t under pressure to whip up votes for a veto-proof funding bill. It looks like a real stalemate to me, at least until the Rs decide it’s hurting their brand image enough to defy Trump.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:41 AM   #933
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by +rep_lol View Post
the border wall is the biggest win trump could ever hope for and you just want to hand it to him in exchange for a promise from him and the senate that they'll pass and sign progressive legislation.

lol you
I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting that we should trade a wall for pinky swears.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:44 AM   #934
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

how else does it work, you pass a budget with appropriations for wall money and then what?

you cant just magically write M4A legislation into it
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:46 AM   #935
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I'm with rep here. Just keep proposing reasonable sensible stuff but no ****ing wall. This is a battle the dems will win because nobody at this stage is changing their mind about whether the wall is a good idea or not. And the not good idea wing is far bigger. The only way they can **** it up is by proposing stupid stuff then Trump will have his obstructionist stick to hit them with.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:01 PM   #936
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
The dumbest thing about Trump shutting down the govt. For 5b for the wall is that the wall actually costs 25b+ to build.

I for one would be happy to trade medicare for all and daca or the like for him getting 5b for the wall because he wont actually be able to build the wall for that. And he is so incompetent that he will likely **** up what he could do with that money anyways.
10 miles of carpool lane in LA cost $1.1B and took almost a decade.

A 2000 mile wall through rough terrain would cost an astronomical amount when all the contractors have had their turn at the trough.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:07 PM   #937
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Not to mention all the new CBP employees we'll have to hire to protect the wall, we already have 62,000+ employees and spend $13.5 billion a year on those.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:08 PM   #938
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson View Post
Sure seems like the Dems are short on leverage here. Trump is irrational and gives zero ****s if govt services get suspended and federal employees have to donate plasma to make rent. Not many people are blaming Senate Republicans, so McConnel isn’t under pressure to whip up votes for a veto-proof funding bill. It looks like a real stalemate to me, at least until the Rs decide it’s hurting their brand image enough to defy Trump.
Yes, but Ted Lieu is correct: we can't cede anything in a hostage negotiation or else it will just keep happening. The correct play is to frame the situation as Trump taking the government hostage and making demands rather than this being some sort of negotiation, and say that we'll negotiate once the government is open. Once open, negotiate with Trump for wall funding conditional upon major progressive wins (path to citizenship, M4A, Green New Deal, etc.). If the progressive priority is a large enough win compared to the wall, then it doesn't matter if the Senate agrees or not. Either we get a big win in exchange for a useless monument, or else the Senate and Trump both tank their approval ratings (Trump's with the donor class for talking about giving bread to the plebes, the Senate's with the rubes for disagreeing with Trump and denying the wall).

Last edited by MrWookie; 01-04-2019 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:09 PM   #939
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

$5B for DACA is totally worth it, and if it keeps happening to that much success - woo hoo!
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:12 PM   #940
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by WichitaDM View Post
Trump's base is not going to flinch about some trash pileups or a shutdown. Most Rs want the government shut down. The people I hear crying about the shutdown are all on the left. So again your argument isn't based in reality.
Moderate suburban Rs don't really give a **** about the wall either way - they just want status quo and FoxNews flattery. Eventually this could drive a wedge between them and the frothy base (which is already started to some degree). But it seems like it would have to drag on for a painfully long time.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:13 PM   #941
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Yes, but Ted Lieu is correct: we can't cede anything in a hostage negotiation or else it will just keep happening. The correct play is to frame the situation as Trump taking the government hostage and making demands rather than this being some sort of negotiation, and say that we'll negotiate once the government is open. Then negotiate with Trump for wall funding conditional upon major progressive wins (path to citizenship, M4A, Green New Deal, etc.). If the progressive priority is a large enough win compared to the wall, then it doesn't matter if the Senate agrees or not. Either we get a big win in exchange for a useless monument, or else the Senate and Trump both tank their approval ratings (Trump's with the donor class for talking about giving bread to the plebes, the Senate's with the rubes for disagreeing with Trump and denying the wall).
So were stuck waiting for McConnel to give in. And I think hes happy to sweat it out and let Trump take the blame for quite a while. I dont see this resolving quickly.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:16 PM   #942
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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So were stuck waiting for McConnel to give in. And I think hes happy to sweat it out and let Trump take the blame for quite a while. I dont see this resolving quickly.
I agree that it will be long and drawn out, but I also don't think that McConnell says to keep the shutdown going if Trump says it should end.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:19 PM   #943
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

flakes of snow

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Old 01-04-2019, 12:20 PM   #944
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
10 miles of carpool lane in LA cost $1.1B and took almost a decade.

A 2000 mile wall through rough terrain would cost an astronomical amount when all the contractors have had their turn at the trough.
Are there a lot of contractors waiting to take a crack at this? The wall building biz probably ain't what it used to be. Shouldn't the Dems at least demand to see the pre-construction plans and real cost estimates. And good luck trying to build a wall along the Mexican border without using the labor of illegal Mexican immigrants.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:22 PM   #945
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

If the Dems can't out-negotiate one of the dumbest, worst negotiators of all time it can only be because they ultimately don't want to. That it's not in the interests of their corporate donors for the to win convincingly (or even to win at all). Because that would mean they may be held to account to implement popular anti-corporate policies.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:23 PM   #946
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

It's true, though, that the Senate is pretty happy with nothing happening. Those villains got just about all they could ever hope to get, getting a massive tax cut through, some villainous judges, etc. They came a vote shy on Obamacare, but they at least got the mandate repeal. They'd be perfectly fine just confirming whatever judges and cabinet appointees need replacing and doing no actual legislating for a couple years, outside of major crises. So, yeah, they don't mind the shutdown, but also, they don't really need the shutdown to keep going in order to further that agenda. Their only interest in maintaining the shutdown would be to delay the House from actually starting to do things.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:25 PM   #947
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I agree that it will be long and drawn out, but I also don't think that McConnell says to keep the shutdown going if Trump says it should end.
We have less leverage over Trump than Mitch. Hes an irrational actor and more than willing to piss everyone off to shore up his base. In fact, holding out for a wall might be his best play.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:26 PM   #948
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Chippa58 View Post
Are there a lot of contractors waiting to take a crack at this? The wall building biz probably ain't what it used to be. Shouldn't the Dems at least demand to see the pre-construction plans and real cost estimates. And good luck trying to build a wall along the Mexican border without using the labor of illegal Mexican immigrants.
What? It's the biggest boondoggle in the world. Everyone, including Trump, knows it won't get built. Just build one shiny section, big enough for photo ops, and the base will eat it up.

Trump will say at least he tried and Dems blocked him from finishing the glorious thing - but in a way it really is finished - look at it! We built a wall. Promises kept.

Contractors will line up for that gravy train.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:26 PM   #949
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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flakes of snow

See! We promised to not use foul language and promise kept!

What about the head of your party being a crude dipsh*t?

We told him he couldn't do it anymore, and you know what? I think it worked.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:27 PM   #950
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

The Dems are short on leverage because about half the Dems, politicians and the general population, are border hawks and want less immigration generally. Even in a presentation designed to show how much different Dems are:

56% of dems want to fine you for hiring an undocumented migrant
20% of dems want to ban travel from certain Muslim-majority countries
16% want to build THE WALL
28% want to end CHAIN MIGRATION
11% want "Separating families who cross the border illegally as a deterrent"

https://www.npr.org/2018/07/16/62884...-trumps-agenda

If you look for polls where people obviously wanted worse seeming answers (it's in how the questions are phrased) you'll find worse numbers for democrats.
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