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Old 02-12-2019, 05:24 PM   #7426
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by microbet View Post
Under the circumstances I doubt any airline would take the publicity risk of a mass firing.
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You can't always get what you want.
You can't just pick up flight crews and flight attendants on short notice. I wouldn't be surprised if it would take longer to replace fired flight crews than to resolve a strike.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:29 PM   #7427
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post

What is the win? That he only got part of what he wanted and not all of it, while they got nothing? That's an odd definition of a win.
I think the win here is that he gets such a pathetically small part of what he wanted (and Hannity has already said it's a terrible deal) that if he accepts it, he could lose base support. It will take a magnificent amount of spin to make it seem like a win, especially if he doesn't have the support of Hannity, Coulter, et. al. And just as Trump put himself in a lose/lose by being blamed for the shutdown and having his polls take a hit, but then getting flamed for being weak when he ended the shutdown, he is in a similar lose/lose here.

This of course will only matter if the Dems are able to get the message out well based on what happens. Yes, the Dems should've asked for something but I JUST had this thought:

The Dems want to make an offer to Trump that is super pathetic but appears as if they're negotiating in good faith. They want there to at least be a CHANCE that he accepts it. They have 2 options:

1. Give him the crap offer but not ask for anything (the current offer)

2. Give him the crap offer and ask for something small, such as the temporary DACA protections that he'd offered in his pathetic offer during the shutdown.

#1 is better for 2 reasons. First off, there is a ZERO percent chance he takes offer #2, because even his offer during the shutdown when he offered this for much MORE money for the wall, he was raked across the coals by the far right. So he would never take an offer where he's giving up the same thing, but getting so much less.

Other reason: The Dems had turned down his offer calling it a non starter. It would be a bad look if they then made an offer asking for the same thing (even if extended DACA protections might be worth giving him 55 miles).

Any way you slice it, even if this seems like a small loss for Dems, it's a bigger loss for Trump. Shutdown, accepting a bad deal, or national emergency, every one of his options here is unpopular.

It would've actually been so baller if Pelosi had been like, "I'd like to announce that i'm actually going back on my word when I said not one single dollar for the wall. I've changed my mind. We are offering exactly that, one dollar for the wall. Our treat. And we don't even want anything in return." And then pull out a single and flick it off her palm making-it-rain style.

The best part about this deal is that the amount of mo es they're offering ($1.6 B?) while seemingly substantial, is less than he could've had before the shutdown, another great talking point that is already being addressed.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:30 PM   #7428
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
Well, we currently have ~600 miles of wall. He wants ~1000 more miles of wall. So what they're giving him is 655 miles instead of 600 miles.



Or to put it another way, 55 new miles instead of 0 new miles.



Or, to put it yet another way:



Trump gets: 55 miles of wall

Dems get: ????



What is the win? That he only got part of what he wanted and not all of it, while they got nothing? That's an odd definition of a win.
Trump is the President, which unfortunately comes with a lot of unchecked power if he's the people around him are smart enough to figure out how to use it. The Democrats hold one house of one branch of government. I don't think you can measure wins and losses as if they're on a level playing field.

The goal of the next 2 years has to be not necessarily racking up big wins, but minimizing the damage he does, while not completely alienating centrist voters who won't let the Democrats off blame-free for a game-theory-optimal strategy of obstructionism. Getting huge concessions from him for nothing was never really on the table despite all the fantasizing here; just look at how his base is reacting to a deal where he gives up nothing. The best case scenario is to give him a token win, really nothing more than an extension of Obama border policies, just enough to allow him to declare victory and weasel out of the corner he backed himself into, while still making him look super weak to anyone who's really paying attention and ensuring that the big beautiful wall he campaigned on never gets built. Also, if he rejects this deal now, it just makes it even clearer to even the most casual observer that the resulting shutdown is 100% on him, where if there was no compromise deal offered at all it becomes more ambiguous.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:36 PM   #7429
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

The correct play for Democrats is to just make fun of him. AOC has figured this out. It’s “dealing with a bully” 101. It works politically and triggers endless own goals from Captain Imbecile.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:39 PM   #7430
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

some D I heard on the radio (maybe Jackie Speier?) was spinning that this deal gave the president less than what he turned down in December. I don't know if that's true (maybe with the beds thing?), but seems dubious.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:41 PM   #7431
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson View Post
The “both sides are the same!” shtick is edgelord bull**** that empowers the right.
The Democrats could avoid making the "both sides" comparison accurate by not agreeing with Republicans on obviously immoral and unethical policies.

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Originally Posted by Ungoliant View Post
The best case scenario is to give him a token win, really nothing more than an extension of Obama border policies, just enough to allow him to declare victory and weasel out of the corner he backed himself into, while still making him look super weak to anyone who's really paying attention and ensuring that the big beautiful wall he campaigned on never gets built.
Except that's not what will happen. Any win is going to be trumpeted to the sky as Trump being a shrewd negotiator and winning one over the Democrats. The supposed renegotiated NAFTA nonsense has like one change and Trump uses that to prove how amazing he supposedly is in negotiating.

That group that pays attention and will see such a deal for what it is is much smaller than you think. 99% of voters go about their life not thinking deeply about anything related to this. They read headlines while getting coffee and move on with the rest of their day.

Worse yet, Trump will see that threatening a shut down gets him some of what he wants. So, he gets 55 miles the first time he threatens a shut down. Well, what about the next time? And the time after that? And the time after that? If he sees that this works, he'll spam it until he gets his whole wall.

Last edited by SuperUberBob; 02-12-2019 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:58 PM   #7432
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
Except that's not what will happen. Any win is going to be trumpeted to the sky as Trump being a shrewd negotiator and winning one over the Democrats. The supposed renegotiated NAFTA nonsense has like one change and Trump uses that to prove how amazing he supposedly is in negotiating.

That group that pays attention and will see such a deal for what it is is much smaller than you think. 99% of voters go about their life not thinking deeply about anything related to this. They read headlines while getting coffee and move on with the rest of their day.
That's a given though. He's going to declare victory and his supporters will believe it no matter what. There is no outcome here where he admits defeat.

The question is what damage is actually done. I think if giving him 55 miles ends this for now, that's better than taking a chance on what's behind door number 2 where he declares an emergency and discovers that he has a lot of power to divert a hell of a lot more money from other places. That just opens a door for him to end up actually getting what he wants and having a real win on the wall to trumpet. He might still do that, but at least it looks a lot worse if he's rejecting a bipartisan deal first rather than just using it as a tool to break a partisan deadlock.

Last edited by Ungoliant; 02-12-2019 at 06:08 PM.
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Old 02-12-2019, 06:22 PM   #7433
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
Worse yet, Trump will see that threatening a shut down gets him some of what he wants. So, he gets 55 miles the first time he threatens a shut down. Well, what about the next time? And the time after that? And the time after that? If he sees that this works, he'll spam it until he gets his whole wall.
He can't just snap his fingers and shut down the government whenever he wants though. Presumably this deal funds the government until next year, so he only really has one more crack at this then. And I'm not so sure that the lesson he takes from this whole ordeal is that he can get whatever he wants from a shutdown. He's getting beat up from all sides on this and is desperately looking for a face-saving escape hatch at this point.
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Old 02-12-2019, 06:29 PM   #7434
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Except that a national emergency for a wall will result in pretty much every civil rights group suing the government. The case would likely end up going to SCOTUS where there's precedent in the courts stopping **** like this. For example, Truman was prevented from nationalizing the steel industry during The Korean War by SCOTUS. Even if the courts rule in favor of the government, Trump will hopefully be out of office by then and the next POTUS will recognize how stupid a wall is. Even if Trump is in office, the process of building the wall would take well over a decade to build as civil rights groups will likely be suing everybody they can in every state to stall the building process. One World Trade Center took over a decade to complete and people actually wanted it. Of course all of this could be irrelevant if Congress votes against this happening which would likely happen.

Barring Trump becoming dictator, a wall will not be completed. It will be another wedge issue that will create future single-issue voters for decades to come.

Last edited by SuperUberBob; 02-12-2019 at 06:34 PM.
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Old 02-12-2019, 06:46 PM   #7435
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Double Down View Post
I think the win here is that he gets such a pathetically small part of what he wanted (and Hannity has already said it's a terrible deal) that if he accepts it, he could lose base support.
Not in a million years. His base doesn't care about any of the details of the negotiation. They don't even accept reality - if Trump says it's a huge win, they'll say it's a huge win, full stop. It's a cult. He will only lose support when supporters feel individual pain. See the kerfuffle re: tax returns. It takes direct personal damage to penetrate their denial of reality.
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Old 02-12-2019, 06:52 PM   #7436
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I still have this morbid desire to see Trump veto the bill and declare a national emergency. I know it would be bad for the country, but I kind of want to watch the horror movie.
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Old 02-12-2019, 06:52 PM   #7437
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

If he’s going to declare a win no matter what, why give him anything at all?
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:01 PM   #7438
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Not in a million years. His base doesn't care about any of the details of the negotiation. They don't even accept reality - if Trump says it's a huge win, they'll say it's a huge win, full stop. It's a cult. He will only lose support when supporters feel individual pain. See the kerfuffle re: tax returns. It takes direct personal damage to penetrate their denial of reality.
Even this is unlikely. These people are stupid and they have pathetically short memories. Millions of them were going to lose their healthcare (or actually did) and they stayed with Trump. You have reports of farmers losing workers and even their actual farms due to Trump and still supporting him. My older family members spent a good chunk of Christmas Eve complaining about their massive medical bills and they still support Trump.

The truth is that these people don't support Trump because of his policies. They don't know anything about policy. They support him because he is an exaggerated version of who they are as human beings. He talks at their level. He thinks at their level. He acts with their level of logic and thinking. He values exactly what they value and hates who and what they hate. Donald Trump is the man deplorables want to be and the kind of man deplorable women want to marry and ****.

The best article I ever read about who Trump supporters are was covered in an episode of Chapo Trap House. This isn't about the salt-of-the-Earth types. Those ****ers don't vote, period. This is about Trump supporters who actually do the supporting.


Last edited by SuperUberBob; 02-12-2019 at 07:07 PM.
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:14 PM   #7439
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by grizy View Post
If hes going to declare a win no matter what, why give him anything at all?
Because if you give him literally nothing in the deal and everyone knows it, even he won't try to spin that, he'll just declare an emergency and divert some money that way, probably a whole lot more than what's being offered. I suppose it's debatable whether that's a better outcome because maybe the courts would stop it or it would look bad for him politically, but I'd personally rather not go down the path of encouraging him to test his powers as a dictator while just trusting that the system will hold him in check. Let him have his little fake victory rally while he just continues Obama's border fencing policies (that can easily be undone) until the clock runs out on him imo.

Last edited by Ungoliant; 02-12-2019 at 07:29 PM.
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:24 PM   #7440
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Yup
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:35 PM   #7441
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

It's not the Democrats vs Trump. The democrats are negotiating with congressional republicans and they want some wall/border stuff too. Give them the 1.3 billion and let's move on. If the dems controlled every single congressional seat, they'd obviously give him nothing. But they can't do that. That's why it's a compromise.
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:46 PM   #7442
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by synth_floyd View Post
It's not the Democrats vs Trump. The democrats are negotiating with congressional republicans and they want some wall/border stuff too. Give them the 1.3 billion and let's move on. If the dems controlled every single congressional seat, they'd obviously give him nothing. But they can't do that. That's why it's a compromise.
And in this compromise, the Dems give them 1.3 billion for the wall. In return, the Republicans give the Dems ??? for ???.

Or is this like that time the GOP gave the Dems a little gun control so we could move on? Or a little healthcare so we could move on?
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:48 PM   #7443
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:49 PM   #7444
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:53 PM   #7445
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:01 PM   #7446
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Wtf does hooked up with lots of money from other sources mean?
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:02 PM   #7447
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Wtf does hooked up with lots of money from other sources mean?
IT MEANS THE WALL WILL BE BUILT AND A BIG VICTORY FOR DONALD J TRUMP!!!!
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:12 PM   #7448
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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No reason to shut the government down or declare a national emergency then!
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:16 PM   #7449
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Old 02-12-2019, 08:36 PM   #7450
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

my [redacted] gimmick account was sadly banned due to the new rules insisting we softplay the conservatives, so you'll just have to use your imagination for this one:
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IT MEANS THE WALL WILL BE BUILT AND A BIG VICTORY FOR DONALD J TRUMP!!!!
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