Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominic
you're assuming no riggage and fair elections
Nope. In a fair election Dems would be tying or taking the senate in 2020 and courting a supermajority in 2022 based on current trajectory. (Based on current Trump popularity imo)
In 2020:
>50%: hold all but Alabama, take Arizona, Colorado, Maine
50%>x>25%: Alabama holds (experts somehow have this as a tossup as of right now), take Iowa, GA, Alaska, NC
Rest are super unlikely even if there’s a wave election. In a wave election getting a 52/48 advantage wouldn’t be crazy
2022:
>50%: hold all, including AZ/CO/NH/NV; take NC (Burr retiring)/PA/WI (Johnson retiring)
50>x>25%: take GA/FL/OH/IA/AK
Outside shot at Missouri as well
That would put an expectation of 58/42 Dem after 2022 in a “fair” world with a Dem wave, with enough variance to make a supermajority a possibility.
We don’t live in that world, so my assumptions of taking senate in 2022 is based on current levels of Republican ****ery
Last edited by alazo1985; 01-24-2019 at 04:46 PM.