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Old 01-23-2019, 02:16 PM   #4626
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

It would literally be a constitutional crisis if he tries to force himself in there to give the speech. He'll just give the speech in the Senate chamber, the oval office or at a MAGA rally.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:18 PM   #4627
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by fuluck414 View Post
I mean technically the Sargent at arms could arrest him. I think.
And the next time I'm in Washington I'll toss a flower on the grave of the recently deceased Sergeant of Arms.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:19 PM   #4628
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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What can they do? Lock the door? This could be the beast reality TV yet
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I mean technically the Sargent at arms could arrest him. I think.
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Originally Posted by synth_floyd View Post
It would literally be a constitutional crisis if he tries to force himself in there to give the speech. He'll just give the speech in the Senate chamber, the oval office or at a MAGA rally.
Well if there's one thing we can count on, it's that our President will do the sensible and prudent thing.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:20 PM   #4629
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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What can they do? Lock the door? This could be the beast reality TV yet
My first thought would just be to kick out the cameras or block their view so that it can't be broadcast... or have Nancy give a speech at that time, forcing him to physically remove her if he wants to address the chamber.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:22 PM   #4630
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

This could backfire on the Dems though because 99% of people don't realize that the SOTU speech isn't required to be in the house of representatives, isn't required to be in speech form and that Trump needs to be formally invited by the House to attend and he can't just stroll in there if they rescind the invitation.

So the narrative could turn into "OBSTRUCTIONIST DEMS WON'T LET THE PRESIDENT DO HIS JOB!!!!"

But if Pelosi doesn't want him to give the speech there, he can't give it. The literal mechanism of the speech is a special joint session of congress so if she doesn't pass the resolution to approve it, congress won't meet. And she can even turn off the lights, cameras, close the house chamber, etc.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:34 PM   #4631
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

This is the dumbest Constitutional crisis ever.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:36 PM   #4632
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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What I would add to CuseRounder's summary is the personal aspects related to Trump's narcissism and needing to always 'win' a negotiation and now having boxed himself into a corner by publicly associating the win with getting 5.7 billion for the wall. So, it is a lot more likely the Senate Republicans open the government with a veto override than Donald will cave, but right now the public and media are framing the shutdown as Pelosi and Democrats vs. Trump and not putting political pressure on Senate Republicans.
That's a good point. I'd also add that the pressure is going to be cranked up exponentially in a couple days when workers miss their second paycheck, and if that doesn't end it, the next paycheck another two weeks down the line cranks the pressure up that much more. It could conceivably go up by an order of magnitude at that point.

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For Pelosi this would be a great opportunity for Democrats to trade some policy concessions worth much more than 5.7 billion in appropriations, but McConnell and senate Republicans will prevent that even if they can play Donald for a fool, so compromise here is again not likely.
However, if they do that, it could be a great wedge issue. If the Dems pass something in the House that Trump says he'll sign and McConnell won't let it to the floor for a vote, that looks horrible for the GOP and the party could splinter on the issue.

The issue here is, once Democrats start negotiating around the shutdown, they could begin to own it. I think this was a viable strategy at the beginning, but now that they've taken the "No hostage taking, period," stance, they have to stick to it.

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If all they get from the GOP are immigration concessions then it still gets counted as a loss in my books. They need to go for things that will have people in Iowa and Oklahoma saying, 'wow, Trump really botched that up.'
I think you may underestimate the degree to which Trump's base would view citizenship for Dreamers as a huge loss for him. They consider it amnesty and unacceptable. They want to kick Dreamers/DACA out for good, they loathe them. Ann Coulter was shredding him after his speech the other day in which he offered 700,000 DACA recipients a 3-year reprieve and no path to citizenship.

Keep in mind as well that there are 3.6 million Dreamers, and only around 700,000 enrolled in DACA, and we'd be dealing for immediate citizenship for all 3.6 million. Trump's base would be apoplectic.

That's also probably adding a net gain of 500K to a million Democratic votes in 2020. My best guess would be that about 600-650K Dreamers live in Texas, so if you turn out half of them and win two-thirds of that, you just gained around 100,000 votes in Texas. That's probably a conservative estimate... Beto lost by 215K. Using similar estimates, you might gain 40-50K votes in Arizona. Hillary lost by 91,000 and Sinema won by 56,000.

Now, I'm not saying Democrats should pursue this policy for electoral reasons... They should do so because it's the morally right thing to do. But it certainly has electoral benefits, and that's part of the reason the GOP is so against it and part of the reason we should consider it a pretty big win...

The only way we're going to get citizenship for Dreamers on better terms than this sort of a deal is by having a super majority in the Senate.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:38 PM   #4633
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by synth_floyd View Post
This could backfire on the Dems though because 99% of people don't realize that the SOTU speech isn't required to be in the house of representatives, isn't required to be in speech form and that Trump needs to be formally invited by the House to attend and he can't just stroll in there if they rescind the invitation.

So the narrative could turn into "OBSTRUCTIONIST DEMS WON'T LET THE PRESIDENT DO HIS JOB!!!!"

But if Pelosi doesn't want him to give the speech there, he can't give it. The literal mechanism of the speech is a special joint session of congress so if she doesn't pass the resolution to approve it, congress won't meet. And she can even turn off the lights, cameras, close the house chamber, etc.
I agree, and I actually think this was a misstep for Pelosi - it seems like trolling for the sake of trolling, and as much as I enjoy pissing him off, so far I don't think it's helped us very much. I'm guessing the play was just to try to piss him off and trigger him into doing something massively stupid, but he hasn't taken the bait that much... Cancelling the codel was stupid, but it's not the kind of thing 95% of Americans care about one iota.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:39 PM   #4634
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I'm thinking the correct play is to let him do it and get Pelosi to make a speech before in someway to the look, we didn't want him taking another tantrum & punishing more of the public.... Fling in a few slurs that his base recognises that she's trying to get them paid, but the billionaire doesn't care for them, try to turn the tables on him.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:42 PM   #4635
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I still stand by my hot take that making him give the SOTUA now with the shutdown going on is great optics for the Dems. Why delay it?

Now we have the additional problem that Nancy’s power move might trigger a for real Constitutional crisis. She cannot back down here without undermining the entire legislative branch. This was really not a great play.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:42 PM   #4636
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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This is the dumbest Constitutional crisis ever.
Welcome to our (UK) world.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:44 PM   #4637
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Democrats are going to look into Kushners and Flynns security clearances +

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...tics-live-news
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:44 PM   #4638
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Welcome to our (UK) world.
Well, he hasn't grabbed a mace.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:45 PM   #4639
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
My first thought would just be to kick out the cameras or block their view so that it can't be broadcast... or have Nancy give a speech at that time, forcing him to physically remove her if he wants to address the chamber.
I thought CSPAN had the only cameras in the chamber and shared the feed with other stations, didn't Ryan catch **** for shutting off the cameras last year while dems live streamed some protest?
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:46 PM   #4640
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

How come USA#1 doesn’t have a cool mace?
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:48 PM   #4641
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I thought CSPAN had the only cameras in the chamber and shared the feed with other stations, didn't Ryan catch **** for shutting off the cameras last year while dems live streamed some protest?
Don't know about Ryan doing that, but I know she'd catch a lot of **** for blocking them or turning them off and I was opposed to this move from the start despite enjoying the LOLs. I was just pointing out a power that she had to block him, not necessarily endorsing that move.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:48 PM   #4642
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:49 PM   #4643
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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"Due to ongoing threats against his family from President Trump and Mr. Giuliani, as recently as this weekend , as well as Mr. Cohen's continued cooperation with ongoing investigations, by advice of counsel, Mr. Cohen's appearance will be postponed to a later date," Cohen's attorney Lanny Davis said in a statement.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/23/polit...ned/index.html
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:49 PM   #4644
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

This seems like a big deal.


Last edited by Matty Lice; 01-23-2019 at 02:50 PM. Reason: Slow pony.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:51 PM   #4645
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Isn't it obstruction of justice to threaten witnesses?
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:55 PM   #4646
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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How come USA#1 doesn’t have a cool mace?
Don't worry, it does.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:57 PM   #4647
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Isn't it obstruction of justice to threaten witnesses?
Giuliani Brain: What's happening to Trump is actually INjustice, so obstructing it is good.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:59 PM   #4648
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Folks,

We already have walls, triple-walls in some locations. These walls are environmental disasters and monuments to r-word-ism. All you West Wing types, who wanna leverage policy mumbo-jumbo by trading X for Y should simply be ashamed of yourselves.

These new walls need to be opposed flat-out under any circumstances. If funded, they need to be obstructed using direct action. No compromise.

Also, WTF with the Donkeys?

Allegedly they are on the side of labor (lol, but that's what they say). The obvious, immediate, and proper strategy should be encouraging the workers working without pay to quit doing that shiz. Shut it Down !!!1! That would solve this problem easily within a week.
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Old 01-23-2019, 03:00 PM   #4649
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Democrats need to realize this and propose something that allows him to save face while not giving him the border wall. I'm not sure what it could be but when you have a successful negotiation, both sides come out feeling like they win or at least don't feel like they lose. Trump is the worst negotiator because for him everything is zero sum.
There's no negotiating on this, in Trump's mind anything but $5.7 billion for his wall means he lost the deal, which means he won't accept it.
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Old 01-23-2019, 03:00 PM   #4650
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