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Old 01-23-2019, 12:28 PM   #4601
Trolly McTrollson
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

This book looks amazing:

Trump Reportedly Demanded That NASA Fly a Manned Mission to Mars by 2020


Quote:
Trump did not seem worried about the time. Sims wrote that he leaned in toward Lightfoot and made him an offer. “But what if I gave you all the money you could ever need to do it?” Trump asked. “What if we sent NASA’s budget through the roof, but focused entirely on that instead of whatever else you’re doing now. Could it work then?”

Lightfoot told him he was sorry, but he didn’t think it was possible
Lightfoot, my man, what are you doing here? This was an amazing missed opportunity!
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:35 PM   #4602
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

onion
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:40 PM   #4603
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson View Post
This book looks amazing:

Trump Reportedly Demanded That NASA Fly a Manned Mission to Mars by 2020




Lightfoot, my man, what are you doing here? This was an amazing missed opportunity!
Thats the thing though. Most good people arent grifters. Even if they are ripping off grifters.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:45 PM   #4604
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by MrWookie View Post
Yeah but that wing is like 2 people, Joe and Blow Koch.
Rs do follow the money.
I think a large number of Never Trump R classic types would go there if given cover.
Do Ds need to message more at the centrist types that the shutdown is going to kill the economy? I don't think they care about Federal workers hurting.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:49 PM   #4605
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by NhlNut View Post
Percentage of Rs who consider shutdown a good way to privatize govt services?
(corollary to the Reagan "Fire them all" method of collective bargaining)


Yes yes 100% yes. Trumpkin coworker has been spewing this exact same line, and he usually just parrots whatever the hive mind is saying.

He was asserting no one was adversely being affected by non essential government services being unavailable, which means theyre worthless. I told him that my US coast guard captains license is expiring in april and i need to renew right now if i want to work part time in the summer, and this is looking like it wont happen now. Tons of peopleís licenses will be in kind of a murky state and i have no doubt itís ****ing people over.

He comes back with ďWHY IS THE GOVERNMENT IN CHARGE OF LICENSING, JUST PRIVATIZE ITĒ
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:00 PM   #4606
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

No don't privatize it. Why would you want there to be a profit motive in things like that? People are dumb and just straight up absorb whatever stupid talking points they hear on the TV and radio. Liberals really need better messengers. At least we finally have someone like AOC.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:00 PM   #4607
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson View Post
This book looks amazing:

Trump Reportedly Demanded That NASA Fly a Manned Mission to Mars by 2020




Lightfoot, my man, what are you doing here? This was an amazing missed opportunity!
If anyone can pull it off it's a dude named "Lightfoot"
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:05 PM   #4608
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I've got a few questions about the shutdown as I'm not familiar with it.
1-was the shutdown voted or the president alone declared it?
2-does it need to be a special set of reasons/circumstances to declare a shutdown? (i.e or can you declare a shutdown whenever opposition vote no?)
3-if no reasons for shutdown needed why have votes at all?
4-who decides when the shutdown ends?
5-why this shutdown law exists?seems really weird.
I'll try to answer these all, but it will make more sense if I don't go in order or answer each one individually.

How shutdowns happen: the main job of Congress is to appropriate funds for the government. The biggest way they do this is by passing an annual budget. When they pass it, the president must sign it. Often, when things are functioning properly, this process starts with the president proposing various things for the budget - perhaps even a full budget proposal, which Congress then considers/adjusts/votes on. If Congress fails to pass a budget and/or the president fails to sign it on time, we go into a shutdown. Often times these negotiations go up to the final hour, or we have a 2-3 day shutdown (which more or less doesn't matter, as long as it doesn't include a payday or paycheck processing day). Often when there is disagreement, everyone will agree on a continuing resolution (CR). This funds the government at the same levels as the prior year, sometimes with minor adjustments and sometimes with other things tacked on. When people talk of a clean CR, they are talking about a totally clean continuing resolution that simply funds the government at the prior year's levels for a set period of time.

How this shutdown happened: Last year, before Dems took over the House, there was a deal in place between Senate Republicans and Dems (needed to break the filibuster), House Republicans and Trump. The understanding was that everyone would sign off on a clean CR and Trump would sign it. The clean CR passed the Senate 100-0, and Trump then declared he would no longer sign it unless there was wall funding. He had been told by right wing talk show hosts that he'd lose his base if he didn't fight for the wall, so he did. As a result, the House (under Republicans and Paul Ryan) decided not to vote for it and we entered a shutdown. Since then, Dems have taken control of the House and passed a clean CR. However, because it's a new session of Congress, the bill must go through the Senate again (where it already passed 100-0). Unfortunately, Mitch McConnell is now toeing the line with Trump and won't bring it up for a vote. So, the shutdown continues.

How this shutdown will end: Either Trump caves and allows the Republicans to stop standing in line behind him and agrees to re-open the government without his wall funding, Democrats cave and give him his wall money, or something unprecedented - like it goes on so long that eventually the GOP turns on Trump and a veto-proof bill passes that he can't block.

Politically, it's very complicated. Democrats know that if they cave, they will incentivize Trump's hostage taking and be subjected to it again in the future. He's shown a tendency to do this, most notably with DACA. So if they cave on this, they're basically caving on him getting all of his biggest partisan priorities. Meanwhile, they're not getting blamed for the shutdown, so they have little reason to cave.

Trump knows that if he caves, he could lose his base. He also gets other fringe benefits out of this shutdown, like the FBI being hindered in its investigations and a news story that overshadows anything related to Russia on most days.

Senate Republicans know that if they cave and betray Trump, they'll lose Trump's base and could be primaried in their next election.

Most people are blaming Trump and/or the Senate Republicans (McConnell), and typically whoever gets blamed for a shutdown caves... but given the way their base feels, they are more scared of caving and losing their base than holding on and being blamed by the other 60-65% of Americans.

I think that should answer everything, but feel free to ask more questions. Sometimes people here can be a little harsh toward newcomers, and often questions are asked in bad faith. You seem to be genuinely curious, and I think you'll find that people are pretty helpful/welcoming as long as that continues to be the case. We've got a good group here with a ton of intelligent minds, so it's a great place to learn more about politics.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:09 PM   #4609
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Throw in the racist spin of 'government jobs' being used as work welfare for 'minority' types.
Does messaging "shutdown hurts economy" become more useful? Does that pressure Rs more than Ds to avoid shutdown?

Last edited by NhlNut; 01-23-2019 at 01:14 PM.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:13 PM   #4610
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by NhlNut View Post
Throw in the racial spin of 'government jobs' being used as work welfare for 'minority' types.
Does messaging "shutdown hurts economy" become more useful? Does that pressure Rs more than Ds to avoid shutdown?
Economic hurt is being felt much more by the shareholder class than labor at this point, so yeah, I'd argue that hammering the economic stuff encourages business folks to pressure their GOP congresscritters.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:14 PM   #4611
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by synth_floyd View Post
No don't privatize it. Why would you want there to be a profit motive in things like that? People are dumb and just straight up absorb whatever stupid talking points they hear on the TV and radio. Liberals really need better messengers. At least we finally have someone like AOC.


Unless im misunderstanding what youíre saying, i dont want to privatize it, iím just saying itís definitely a GOP talking point somewhere in the derposphere
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:18 PM   #4612
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

If you're going to shoot somebody in the middle of 5th Ave, you want your license to be in order.

Quote:
Endall allowed Donald Trump Sr., Attorney Michael Cohen, Donald Trump Jr, to obtain full carry gun licenses even though the proper credentials allegedly were not in the file because of their generous donations to the Police Athletic League or the NYC Police Foundation.
https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york...123-story.html
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:21 PM   #4613
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by synth_floyd View Post
No don't privatize it. Why would you want there to be a profit motive in things like that?
But surely you want a competitive marketplace of licensing. What better way for customers to identify the most stringent and punctilious testing and standard-checking available?
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:28 PM   #4614
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

What I would add to CuseRounder's summary is the personal aspects related to Trump's narcissism and needing to always 'win' a negotiation and now having boxed himself into a corner by publicly associating the win with getting 5.7 billion for the wall. So, it is a lot more likely the Senate Republicans open the government with a veto override than Donald will cave, but right now the public and media are framing the shutdown as Pelosi and Democrats vs. Trump and not putting political pressure on Senate Republicans.

Also, since Trump's narcissism and stubbornness is pretty clear to everyone but Trump, Pelosi and McConnell basically both have to act under the assumption that Trump will never go along with anything other than 5.7 billion for a wall. For Pelosi this would be a great opportunity for Democrats to trade some policy concessions worth much more than 5.7 billion in appropriations, but McConnell and senate Republicans will prevent that even if they can play Donald for a fool, so compromise here is again not likely.

Anyway it looks like the CR that McConnell and Schumer are negotiating only puts us back into the same situation in another month, which I think is a bad deal for the Democrats because the public has pinned this shutdown on Trump but might pin the next one on congress. I would argue that they should press for a much longer CR at this point, people don't want the government open for 3 weeks.

Last edited by BadBoyBenny; 01-23-2019 at 01:39 PM.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:32 PM   #4615
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Democrats need to realize this and propose something that allows him to save face while not giving him the border wall. I'm not sure what it could be but when you have a successful negotiation, both sides come out feeling like they win or at least don't feel like they lose. Trump is the worst negotiator because for him everything is zero sum.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:37 PM   #4616
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by gregorio View Post
Humpty Trumpy pushed for a wall.
Humpty Trumpy primed for a fall.
All of Trump's lawyers,
Whatever they preached,
Couldn't stop Trumpy from getting impeached.
lol
 
Old 01-23-2019, 01:46 PM   #4617
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

He's going.......
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/u...si-letter.html

I refer to your previous invitation to the house for the state of the union and I say Yes...
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:50 PM   #4618
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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It basically circles back to the arguments we had when this started. If you want to use this for leverage, you have to negotiate and negotiate hard. If not, you have to make it your hardline stance that you will never negotiate while anyone is being held hostage. If that's going to be your hardline stance, you shouldn't be doing a CR that only goes until February 8th, because it's just going to lead to another shutdown in which you may shoulder the blame.

The problem is, by taking the hardline stance and pushing for just a clean CR, you let the GOP out of the corner as soon as Trump cools off from his temper tantrum... Then with the government open, and negotiations beginning, you have lost the leverage he gifted you. You've also got to make damn sure it looks like you're negotiating in good faith, or else you could be blamed for the next shutdown. The key to taking the hardline stance is ALWAYS being 100% open to clean CR's every time there's a shutdown, and being the side that never wants to hold government employees hostage.

That could have long-term upside, especially when the other side has proven willing to shut down the government to get what it wants over and over... However, you're also squandering massive amounts of leverage that Trump is gifting you, and a golden opportunity to drive a wedge right through the middle of the GOP.

The elite play, I think, is to make an offer the moment the government re-opens that is seen as fair and reasonable by most Americans, but that drives that wedge through the GOP. You do this right away to set the terms of the negotiation, rather than waiting a week for Trump to fire out some garbage like he just did. If Democrats are going to negotiate with the government re-opened, they MUST do it on their terms.

Something like:

1. Immediate Citizenship for all Dreamers (not just DACA recipients).

2. Full renewal of TPS for 3 years, without any bogus conditions.

3. Expansion of legal immigration.

4. End family separation and child detention immediately.

for

1. ~$1 billion in border security money to be used on technology.

2. ~$1 billion in border security money directed to the Trump-created humanitarian crisis (food, water, shelter, medication, etc).

3. ~$500 million in funds directed to set up processing centers to process amnesty requests in our embassies throughout Central America.

Tweak the numbers as needed, but the goal is to basically say, "Look, he wanted about $5 billion, we offered half that, we're being VERY reasonable here."

Obviously this is a non-starter for Trump's base, but that doesn't matter. The goal here isn't to give him something he can sell his base, which is akin to letting the country be governed by the right-most 25%. The goal is to continue to look reasonable and responsible while he flails around and throws temper tantrums. This is also something that, in theory, with a normal Republican president, could actually pass the Senate.

If it does, you're pretty happy with taking it. None of the money you're giving up for the border goes toward the wall, none of it builds any racist monuments, and you get a couple of huge policy and moral wins coming back the other way.

If the GOP/Trump passes, you should shoulder no blame again if they shut it down. You made a reasonable offer, and your demands were supported by the majority of the country.

According to a Gallup poll last summer, 75% of Republicans and right-leaning independents support a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers. Expanding legal immigration doesn't poll well, but I think it would with an easy sell from Dems of, "Unemployment is at 4%, we need more workers, this is good for our economy and will make America richer." I'm not even going to look up polling on family separation, I'm sure a majority are for ending it. And TPS probably polls pretty neutrally, and would also be the least discussed part of the offer.
If all they get from the GOP are immigration concessions then it still gets counted as a loss in my books. They need to go for things that will have people in Iowa and Oklahoma saying, 'wow, Trump really botched that up.'
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:52 PM   #4619
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by synth_floyd View Post
No don't privatize it. Why would you want there to be a profit motive in things like that? People are dumb and just straight up absorb whatever stupid talking points they hear on the TV and radio. Liberals really need better messengers. At least we finally have someone like AOC.
Actually I live where they privatized registry services and it actually works pretty well. The government still issues the licenses, mind you, it's just all the places you go to pick them up are private companies.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:53 PM   #4620
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Oh no he dint

This is the kind of slogan that would end a candidates campaign during primary season. We are so broken.

And it is amazing he has gone 1000x further all in on the wall than anyone could have imagined. He has essentially tossed away the rest of any agenda he might have had planned for the rest of his term to live or die on this hill. It is really quite remarkable.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:56 PM   #4621
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by smacc25 View Post
He's going.......
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/u...si-letter.html

I refer to your previous invitation to the house for the state of the union and I say Yes...
LOL I don't think it works like that.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:03 PM   #4622
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by BadBoyBenny View Post
Anyway it looks like the CR that McConnell and Schumer are negotiating only puts us back into the same situation in another month, which I think is a bad deal for the Democrats because the public has pinned this shutdown on Trump but might pin the next one on congress. I would argue that they should press for a much longer CR at this point, people don't want the government open for 3 weeks.
But wouldn't that allow the "non-essentials" to get paid?
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:04 PM   #4623
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

He's going to allow Mitch to pass a clean CR so that Nancy will then let him do the SOTU in the house chamber which will then somehow backfire on nancy in a week when the gov shuts down again.
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:11 PM   #4624
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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LOL I don't think it works like that.
What can they do? Lock the door? This could be the beast reality TV yet
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:14 PM   #4625
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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What can they do? Lock the door? This could be the beast reality TV yet
I mean technically the Sargent at arms could arrest him. I think.
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