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Old 01-23-2019, 09:02 AM   #4576
Clovis8
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by realDonaldTrump View Post
More than one million was paid to some PR firm to come up with this one.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:05 AM   #4577
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Completely disagree, Trump came up with that himself.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:06 AM   #4578
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Wouldn't "the" wall make more sense? Unless he's just big on walls in general I guess.

I suspect that Trump came up with this all by himself - it's a crappy line but he seems very pleased with it.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:07 AM   #4579
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

How can anybody make any deal with Trump? The guy routinely ****s people over and never holds his end of the bargain unless it's to his benefit. Any deal made for the wall is gonna be completely ignored once he gets funding for it.

Of course the reality is that this shutdown has nothing to do with the wall. This shutdown is about preventing the House from subpoenaing things that would embarrass Trump such as his tax returns. IMO, this shutdown will run as long as Trump is POTUS.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:09 AM   #4580
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Humpty Trumpy pushed for a wall.
Humpty Trumpy primed for a fall.
All of Trump's lawyers,
Whatever they preached,
Couldn't stop Trumpy from getting impeached.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:12 AM   #4581
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
How can anybody make any deal with Trump? The guy routinely ****s people over and never holds his end of the bargain unless it's to his benefit. Any deal made for the wall is gonna be completely ignored once he gets funding for it.

Of course the reality is that this shutdown has nothing to do with the wall. This shutdown is about preventing the House from subpoenaing things that would embarrass Trump such as his tax returns. IMO, this shutdown will run as long as Trump is POTUS.
Imo your not far off Sub, he's realised that the FBI ain't getting paid and therefore he can ride this out till 2020, he don't care for his base 1 little bit & there starting to wake up to him..... The further his base falls the longer this shutdown goes on.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:18 AM   #4582
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

When you don't get paid UK style.....

https://youtu.be/XBbDlzAcExI
Longer clip......

https://youtu.be/yAL21gFSFcw

Im sure I was doing it correctly too
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:49 AM   #4583
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I've got a few questions about the shutdown as I'm not familiar with it.
1-was the shutdown voted or the president alone declared it?
2-does it need to be a special set of reasons/circumstances to declare a shutdown? (i.e or can you declare a shutdown whenever opposition vote no?)
3-if no reasons for shutdown needed why have votes at all?
4-who decides when the shutdown ends?
5-why this shutdown law exists?seems really weird.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:52 AM   #4584
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Its not like somebody declared shutdown Michael Scott style. Its that the government did not come to an agreement on a budget/funding and therefore have no way to allocate funds to federal workers.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:54 AM   #4585
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

most recent 538 figures (updated 23 minutes ago):

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Old 01-23-2019, 10:00 AM   #4586
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by weeeez View Post
I've got a few questions about the shutdown as I'm not familiar with it.
1-was the shutdown voted or the president alone declared it?
2-does it need to be a special set of reasons/circumstances to declare a shutdown? (i.e or can you declare a shutdown whenever opposition vote no?)
3-if no reasons for shutdown needed why have votes at all?
4-who decides when the shutdown ends?
5-why this shutdown law exists?seems really weird.
Answer to #4 is basically Mitch McConnell.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:12 AM   #4587
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Trump is so proud of that complex A-A rhyme scheme he came up with. Probably asked Pence for a gold star sticker for being such a good boy.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:21 AM   #4588
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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It's too bad this great Republican leader didn't come up with this brilliant strategy back when he could easily have gotten anything he wanted passed.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:24 AM   #4589
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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He just let it slip that it's been his plan all along to shut down the government for the entire 116th congress
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:31 AM   #4590
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Percentage of Rs who consider shutdown a good way to privatize govt services?
(corollary to the Reagan "Fire them all" method of collective bargaining)
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:34 AM   #4591
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Answer to #4 is basically Mitch McConnell.
To flesh this out, only way this ends is either

1. Trump caves, gives up the wall.

2. Dems cave, they give trump his $5bn for the wall.

3. McConnell defies Trump and the Senate comes together to pass a veto-proof funding bill.

4. Pelosi and Trump agree on some kind of comporimise ($2bn in exchange for DACA or whatever).

You could make a credible argument for why any/all parties are responsible for the shutdown, which is why it was nice for Trump to publicly accept the blame for it.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:41 AM   #4592
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by NhlNut View Post
Percentage of Rs who consider shutdown a good way to privatize govt services?
(corollary to the Reagan "Fire them all" method of collective bargaining)
I'm not sure they care about **** like that anymore, unless the really ramp up the propaganda about these 800000 people all being black people and/or Democrats. We're way past "principled" Republican policy stances. The only thing they could agree on in the last two years while holding total control was borrowing more money to give to rich people.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:44 AM   #4593
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by aarono2690 View Post
I commonly see people propose an increase to legal immigration as part of a compromise for the wall. Why is this considered a good trade off?

Doesn’t seem to gain political advantage for the Democratic Party. HR-1 would atleast help ensure voting rights and fight corruption.

I assume it has a negative impact on low wage/skill workers who will now face even lower demand for their labor. A lot of the Democratic party support comes from low income voters so this seems odd to me.

A lot of first generation immigrants have been very conservative in the past, I assume this to hold especially if they’re fleeing Venezuela, drug violence, or are strong Catholic as they’ll probably fall for Conservative rhetoric.
As far as I'm concerned there is no less welcome sentiment in the Democratic party than this. I'd take Bloomberg over such nationalism any day.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:53 AM   #4594
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by MrWookie View Post
I'm not sure they care about **** like that anymore, unless the really ramp up the propaganda about these 800000 people all being black people and/or Democrats. We're way past "principled" Republican policy stances. The only thing they could agree on in the last two years while holding total control was borrowing more money to give to rich people.
The Koch STARVE THE BEAST wing of the party absolutely loves it.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:01 PM   #4595
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by aarono2690 View Post
I commonly see people propose an increase to legal immigration as part of a compromise for the wall. Why is this considered a good trade off?

Doesn’t seem to gain political advantage for the Democratic Party. HR-1 would atleast help ensure voting rights and fight corruption.

I assume it has a negative impact on low wage/skill workers who will now face even lower demand for their labor. A lot of the Democratic party support comes from low income voters so this seems odd to me.
This is an area of at least some dispute between different economists but the effect is almost certainly smaller than you might think. See for example Peri (2007):

Quote:
"If U.S. States were independent countries, California would be the second largest receiving country for international migrants in the whole world (after Russia) with its 8.5 million foreign-born as of 2004. Moreover, its proximity to Mexico and a porous border generated extremely large flows of uneducated Mexican workers (documented and undocumented), at a growing rate, during the last three decades. With one third of its total labor force made up by immigrants, two thirds of its uneducated workers coming from abroad and a rapidly rising foreign-born population, that grew by 40% in the last 14 years, surely native Californians (particularly the unskilled ones) must have suffered the most from the negative effects of this ”immigration crisis” on their employment opportunities and wages.

The present study, that analyzes employment and wage data in California over the 1960-2004 period, seems to say otherwise. On one hand, immigrants do not seem to increase the tendency of natives with similar skills (education and experience) to migrate, or to otherwise change their likelihood of losing their jobs and dropping out of employment. On the other hand, the impact of immigration over the 1990-2004 period has been negative on the wages of previous immigrants and positive on the wages of U.S. natives, revealing a good degree of complementarity between U.S. and foreign-born workers that benefits (rather then harms) native workers’ productivity."​
What they found instead was that new waves of immigration had a larger negative impact on wages of prior immigrants rather than on the native born. In other words, the effect you're worried about can happen but the ship has already sailed and the economy has already adjusted such that native workers are not really competing for those jobs. They do get the other benefits associated with immigrant labor though, i.e. cheaper goods.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:09 PM   #4596
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by microbet View Post
As far as I'm concerned there is no less welcome sentiment in the Democratic party than this. I'd take Bloomberg over such nationalism any day.
Neat.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:12 PM   #4597
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by well named View Post
This is an area of at least some dispute between different economists but the effect is almost certainly smaller than you might think. See for example Peri (2007):



What they found instead was that new waves of immigration had a larger negative impact on wages of prior immigrants rather than on the native born. In other words, the effect you're worried about can happen but the ship has already sailed and the economy has already adjusted such that native workers are not really competing for those jobs. They do get the other benefits associated with immigrant labor though, i.e. cheaper goods.
Thanks for addressing my questions. I’ll look at this more when I get home.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:13 PM   #4598
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by Namath12 View Post
The Koch STARVE THE BEAST wing of the party absolutely loves it.
Yeah but that wing is like 2 people, Joe and Blow Koch.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:14 PM   #4599
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by markksman View Post
I would like to ask them if they would forego being paid for their job in the name of this security? Because they could donate their pay to federal workers to put their money where their mouth is.
Except they'll say yes and then not do it.

The reality is that the ultra right is a-ok with the government being shut down, because they hate it. Many also probably think that without all those leechy government employees out there not getting paid eventually their taxes will go down.

Last edited by dinopoker; 01-23-2019 at 12:28 PM.
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:23 PM   #4600
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Resorts south of us me be packed with this weather up here and all these people on unexpected winter vacation.
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