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Old 01-22-2019, 05:09 PM   #4476
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
The last candidate to get less than 42% of the popular vote in a race that did not have a major third party candidate was Mondale in '84, who lost the electoral college 525-13 and the popular vote 58.8-40.6.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:10 PM   #4477
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Has Mondale signaled whether he is running?
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:10 PM   #4478
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Trump wall - all you need to know about US border in seven charts





Does the wall (fence) work?


Last edited by vamooose; 01-22-2019 at 05:39 PM. Reason: Remembered how to poast!
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:11 PM   #4479
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Senate Ds and Rs reach compromise that could open the government temporarily



Seems like both of them should pass, the House will only pass the one that doesn't have wall funding, then Congress dares Trump to veto something that reopens the government for 3 weeks without his wall funding?
Yeah, so basically Dems give up the filibuster on the first one and it passes on party lines. Then Mitch allows the vote on the second, which has already passed 100-0. It probably passes something like 70-30. The House passes the clean extension through February 8, and Trump gets to decide how he wants to play it.

Of course, we're probably in for another extended shutdown on February 8th... but at least we can get everyone paid in the meantime, right?
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:15 PM   #4480
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

I'm astounded that the Dems seem to be avoiding punching themselves in the face.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:20 PM   #4481
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I'm astounded that the Dems seem to be avoiding punching themselves in the face.
I mean Lucy can only pull the football away from Charlie Brown so many times before he figures it out. Turns out it only took the Dems 40 years.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:22 PM   #4482
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

Am I being too skeptical when I ask the order the two Senate bills will be voted on?

(Thinking of tricky Mitch scenarios.)
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:23 PM   #4483
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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That sounds like a bull**** law though.
It sounds exactly like the laws in a lot of Scandi area countries. Guns can only be transported to and from places for sport/hunting. They must be kept locked away in a safe while being transported. Etc etc.

It works. It works all over the world. It isnt bull**** in any way.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:31 PM   #4484
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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If itís a trend thatís been maintained for almost a decade, it is stretching the facts to the point of being misleading calling it ďfor the first time in decadesĒ
In 2016 we gained 77K manufacturing jobs due to reshoring and lost 50K due to offshoring, resulting in a net gain of 27K manufacturing jobs. In decades past we lost more jobs to offshoring than we gained in reshoring (on an annual basis). So for the first time in decades more manufacturing jobs came back than left. Whatís misleading about that?
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:32 PM   #4485
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Am I being too skeptical when I ask the order the two Senate bills will be voted on?

(Thinking of tricky Mitch scenarios.)
I don't see what scenario exists.

Even if the wall-funding bill is first, it passes with no D votes, and it's DOA in the House.

Overall, the CR through Feb. 8 doesn't strike me as a good option for the Dems, even if it's a short-term win. It relieves the pressure on Trump to get 800K workers paid and mitigate the impact the shutdown is having on the economy. It then allows him to say he ceded to their request to re-open and then negotiate, and then he starts banging the drum for the wall again. When the D's say no wall, the government shuts down again, and this time it's viewed as their fault.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:37 PM   #4486
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

My evil scenario was after the Republican bill passes, Mitch does not allow the CR bill to be voted on.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:39 PM   #4487
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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My evil scenario was after the Republican bill passes, Mitch does not allow the CR bill to be voted on.
Right, which would be no different from them just passing the Trump bill, which they were always going to do after the Saturday announcement. That bill then doesn't pass the House. There's no way for Mitch to "sneak" that bill into law.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:43 PM   #4488
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

You don't seem to be understanding my (obvious) point which could well be because I did not make it clearer or maybe I don't really have a point.

I don't really care which.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:45 PM   #4489
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Right, which would be no different from them just passing the Trump bill, which they were always going to do after the Saturday announcement. That bill then doesn't pass the House. There's no way for Mitch to "sneak" that bill into law.
Democrats will have to "lift" the filibuster for the bill including the wall to pass the Senate though, won't they? so the "trick" would be to pass it and then not pass/ not even vote on the "short term CR".

I don't think this would be a good move for McConnell strategically, as it puts too much spotlight on him. Right now he can sort of look at this thing from the sidelines.

Things depend on how Democrats react after the short term CR has been passed until Feb 8. I think this is the time to ask Trump for concessions he might be willing to give, but Republican senators will hate. Take the fight to them (or actually get something good in return for 5b$)
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:46 PM   #4490
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
The last candidate to get less than 42% of the popular vote in a race that did not have a major third party candidate was Mondale in '84, who lost the electoral college 525-13 and the popular vote 58.8-40.6.
If the line is 13 EV for Trump with those poll numbers--my entire life savings will be on the over.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:47 PM   #4491
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
Yeah, so basically Dems give up the filibuster on the first one and it passes on party lines. Then Mitch allows the vote on the second, which has already passed 100-0. It probably passes something like 70-30. The House passes the clean extension through February 8, and Trump gets to decide how he wants to play it.

Of course, we're probably in for another extended shutdown on February 8th... but at least we can get everyone paid in the meantime, right?
It gives trump a chance to pull the same exact stunt EXCEPT this time try to not go on TV and explicitly he'll take all the blame for it
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:53 PM   #4492
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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This I donít get. Buzzfeed may or may not have legitimate reporters working for them but their reputation since inception has been a webbdepository of ad promoted listicles and silly puffery.

Buzzfeed is not steeped in old school media traditions and methods. Just not sure where the where is. I suspect parts of the story are completely accurate which is about the best one could expect from Buzzfeed.

They can not even get past their own stupid name to ramp up credibility.

Pretty much every party involved, including buzzfeed, have their own reasons to lie or massage the truth.

I suspect when all is said and done the core criminal misdeeds by Trump will have happened and been demonstrated to do so. Maybe Jalopnik will break the next story.
Ben Smith is head of BuzzFeed politics. He's at least as credible, and actually more credible, than most editors at major publications. Plenty of youtube interviews if you are curious. The journalists they hire are as good or better than their peers.

The last time they got serious flak was for publishing the Steel Dossier--which they published not for its factual content, which they did not vouch for, but merely because it was floating around Washington and, as such, was relevant.

I'm glad they are more aggressive than, say, the NYT, and they generally have better news judgment. As far as the comment from the special counsel's office--Trump and Cohen apparently had many conversations prior to his testimony. If Trump did not directly instruct Cohen to lie, it's very likely only because he gave him "instructions" in the mob boss, "don't you remember it like this?" style.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:57 PM   #4493
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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If the line is 13 EV for Trump with those poll numbers--my entire life savings will be on the over.
Agreed. Based on demographics and geography, his foor is much higher.





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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
It gives trump a chance to pull the same exact stunt EXCEPT this time try to not go on TV and explicitly he'll take all the blame for it
Yup, that's of course if he doesn't veto it. But I think Dems offering an extension to only February 8 could be a mistake, unless they immediately make a grand offer that is DOA in the Senate and try to drive a wedge right through the GOP.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:59 PM   #4494
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Old 01-22-2019, 06:03 PM   #4495
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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a lot of grumbling in the local community starting. Looks like a ton of people who relied on property tax writeoffs in an area where homes are overvalued in crappy areas by about 40% are starting to feel the effects of the tax code changes. A lot of mortgage companies I guess sold people on these loans they could barely afford if not for the tax writeoff and now people are hurting.

Tbh it makes total sense to me why people in my area totally reversed on trump out of nowhere (district 48). Most of these homes are way overvalued, and in some areas that are really middle class-ish. They're seeing their property values plummeting (like 20% right now) and are taking a huge tax hit on top of it.

A vocal trumpy coworker of mine who is a self-styled landlord has been yammering for months about the tax changes and totally reversed his tune recently and seems to have soured on trump but he's too proud to admit it. I know he's gotta be feeling it. All I have to do is bring up the tax code changes now and he goes completely silent and changes the subject (the type of guy that can bring any conversation back to politics).

I'm getting a really perverse pleasure out of it.
I'd get a perverse pleasure out of it too except for the fact that it has totally ****ing hosed me as well as a homeowner in New York.
 
Old 01-22-2019, 06:06 PM   #4496
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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: Individual 1, Thread 2, Year 3.

What if dems allow it to pass with only 50 votes by giving up filibuster and it passes 53-47 or whatever and then republicans vote no on the clean one so it fails 47-53

Then house doesnít pass the new poison pill bill and public blames dem house instead of trump?


Seems like the latest ploy to shift blame...not feeling easy about it
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Old 01-22-2019, 06:08 PM   #4497
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

And some more actual reporting by Buzzfeed.

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Old 01-22-2019, 06:10 PM   #4498
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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I don't see what scenario exists.

Even if the wall-funding bill is first, it passes with no D votes, and it's DOA in the House.

Overall, the CR through Feb. 8 doesn't strike me as a good option for the Dems, even if it's a short-term win. It relieves the pressure on Trump to get 800K workers paid and mitigate the impact the shutdown is having on the economy. It then allows him to say he ceded to their request to re-open and then negotiate, and then he starts banging the drum for the wall again. When the D's say no wall, the government shuts down again, and this time it's viewed as their fault.

Yeah, and this is the best case scenario where Rs actually do vote for clean bill and we open back up.

We are back here in 2 weeks but gives trump a chance to change the narrative

I wonít feel good until the govt is opened for the long term (months not days) without wall funding
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Old 01-22-2019, 06:11 PM   #4499
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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Right, which would be no different from them just passing the Trump bill, which they were always going to do after the Saturday announcement. That bill then doesn't pass the House. There's no way for Mitch to "sneak" that bill into law.

No they were never going to pass the trump bill bc they need 60 for it

This is a compromise to let them pass this bill with only 50 to show that republicans are willing to pass a wall bill
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Old 01-22-2019, 06:14 PM   #4500
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re: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: State of Emergency

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They internalized labor union rhetoric to the point where they feel an inferiority complex for not working with their hands. I mean this seriously.
I think this hits on something that's pretty spot on. And also is just completely irrational. Like, from a standpoint of traditional masculinity even, you work so you can provide a good living for yourself and your family. You can do a much much better job of that working with your brain than working with your body.
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