Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
I think Trump is probably a favorite to win re-election right now, all things considered.
I don't think so. But probably not a lot of folks agree.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are trending blue in special elections and the midterm. Those states were a lot more anti-Hillary than pro Trump. It may come down to Wisconsin and Arizona. Arizona is not out of reach for the democrats. Also Florida and Ohio but won't be surprised if Trump takes both again. If I'm right about Penn, Mich, and the 1ME, then Trump needs to take FL, OH, AZ, GA, NC, IA just for 269-269. Just might happen.
I don't see Trump winning any states that went blue in 2020. Do you?
269-269 tie not so unlikely. Only thing that has to happen is for MI and PN to go blue and for all of ME to go blue but everything else remain the same as 2016 i.e. WI, AZ, OH, FL stay red.
Also 25-25 in the House not THAT unlikely. I believe it's 26-22 R right now with Penn currently R but great chance to go D, Florida is 14-13 R right now so that could change, and one other state I can't recall. If it's Wisconsin then forget about it, that state is gerrymandered and the supreme court will be R for another decade or two.
If it's 269-269 in EC, 25-25 in house, and 50-50 in senate (I think very unlikely democrats gain net 3 after Jones/Gardner cancel each other out, but hey maybe) then Pence names himself president and SC rules 5-4 that it stands.
Last edited by Henry_Sugar; 04-18-2019 at 04:22 PM.