Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
Yeah, I mean in the context of what I was responding to (that Trump needs to carry all of FL, MI, WI, PA), I think you have to start from 2016. If you're saying he needs to carry all of those four, I think you're just assuming he's carried everything else he carried in 2016, right?
I don't know if 2008 is a good one to use for 2020. I can't see Ohio or Indiana going blue, for example, but Arizona could. North Carolina would be in play or lean Dem in a free/fair election - we'll see if they have one there. So would Georgia, for that matter - they won't be having one.
But anyway I think the likelihood of the 2008 map being the best basis for 2020 is pretty low, even if the total electoral vote expected value is closer to 2008 than any other recent election. (I don't think it is yet, but it could be.)
In other words, the way the parties are aligned and based on the Trump coalition and what states are in play, it's better to start from 2016.
Yeah sorry, I might not have read your post in context.. I just skipped to the end of the thread. My overall point was that 2020 could be a huge turnout surge (~60%+) with one candidate getting over 70 million votes. If that’s the case (which isn’t crazy given house dem candidates almost beat Trumps vote total in the midterms[!!]) you don’t even really have to go state by state. Republicans can’t realistically overcome a 5 point popular vote deficit even with their electoral college advantages. Of course there are reasons why that might be a bad way to look at 2020. Liberal apathy is one of the most powerful forces in American politics and the midterms could be an anomaly with presidential turnout being the standard 55% giving republicans a chance to get lucky again or even win the popular vote out right.
But if I had to bet I would say the dem in 2020 breaks Obama’s total vote count record from 2008 which would make it virtually impossible for Trump to overcome and win reelection.