Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
Yeah but we did touch on this recently and every orevious precedent reaches out as soon as they take office and at least feign uniting. This is primarly done to set the floor for re-election. Trump has done just the opposite and tripled down on his dividing rhetoric. This means he is unlikely to get any “the devil you know” votes and likely means he is ONLY going to be pulling from those who voted for him last time. This number, due to numerous reasons will be lower than last time.
I have no confidence he will get re-elected, but he is playing opposite of the ways previous presidents tried to get re-elected during a first term. If it were a straight up vote, trump would have zero chance of getting re-elected. The issue is how the electoral college shakes out.
And voter suppression/shenanigans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte
Starting from the 2016 map is potentially a huge mistake. The 2014 midterms were the lowest turnout in history and republicans won the house popular vote by 7%. The 2018 midterms were the highest turnout since WWII and dems won by 9. 2008 is probably a better starting map.
Yeah, I mean in the context of what I was responding to (that Trump needs to carry all of FL, MI, WI, PA), I think you have to start from 2016. If you're saying he needs to carry all of those four, I think you're just assuming he's carried everything else he carried in 2016, right?
I don't know if 2008 is a good one to use for 2020. I can't see Ohio or Indiana going blue, for example, but Arizona could. North Carolina would be in play or lean Dem in a free/fair election - we'll see if they have one there. So would Georgia, for that matter - they won't be having one.
But anyway I think the likelihood of the 2008 map being the best basis for 2020 is pretty low, even if the total electoral vote expected value is closer to 2008 than any other recent election. (I don't think it is yet, but it could be.)
In other words, the way the parties are aligned and based on the Trump coalition and what states are in play, it's better to start from 2016.