Quote:
Originally Posted by whosnext
Okay, now I better understand - but it still makes no frickin sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dth123451
Yeah.
“**** you, no” remains the only answer.
It basically circles back to the arguments we had when this started. If you want to use this for leverage, you have to negotiate and negotiate hard. If not, you have to make it your hardline stance that you will never negotiate while anyone is being held hostage. If that's going to be your hardline stance, you shouldn't be doing a CR that only goes until February 8th, because it's just going to lead to another shutdown in which you may shoulder the blame.
The problem is, by taking the hardline stance and pushing for just a clean CR, you let the GOP out of the corner as soon as Trump cools off from his temper tantrum... Then with the government open, and negotiations beginning, you have lost the leverage he gifted you. You've also got to make damn sure it looks like you're negotiating in good faith, or else you could be blamed for the next shutdown. The key to taking the hardline stance is ALWAYS being 100% open to clean CR's every time there's a shutdown, and being the side that never wants to hold government employees hostage.
That could have long-term upside, especially when the other side has proven willing to shut down the government to get what it wants over and over... However, you're also squandering massive amounts of leverage that Trump is gifting you, and a golden opportunity to drive a wedge right through the middle of the GOP.
The elite play, I think, is to make an offer the moment the government re-opens that is seen as fair and reasonable by most Americans, but that drives that wedge through the GOP. You do this right away to set the terms of the negotiation, rather than waiting a week for Trump to fire out some garbage like he just did. If Democrats are going to negotiate with the government re-opened, they MUST do it on their terms.
Something like:
1. Immediate Citizenship for all Dreamers (not just DACA recipients).
2. Full renewal of TPS for 3 years, without any bogus conditions.
3. Expansion of legal immigration.
4. End family separation and child detention immediately.
for
1. ~$1 billion in border security money to be used on technology.
2. ~$1 billion in border security money directed to the Trump-created humanitarian crisis (food, water, shelter, medication, etc).
3. ~$500 million in funds directed to set up processing centers to process amnesty requests in our embassies throughout Central America.
Tweak the numbers as needed, but the goal is to basically say, "Look, he wanted about $5 billion, we offered half that, we're being VERY reasonable here."
Obviously this is a non-starter for Trump's base, but that doesn't matter. The goal here isn't to give him something he can sell his base, which is akin to letting the country be governed by the right-most 25%. The goal is to continue to look reasonable and responsible while he flails around and throws temper tantrums. This is also something that, in theory, with a normal Republican president, could actually pass the Senate.
If it does, you're pretty happy with taking it. None of the money you're giving up for the border goes toward the wall, none of it builds any racist monuments, and you get a couple of huge policy and moral wins coming back the other way.
If the GOP/Trump passes, you should shoulder no blame again if they shut it down. You made a reasonable offer, and your demands were supported by the majority of the country.
According to a Gallup poll last summer, 75% of Republicans and right-leaning independents support a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers. Expanding legal immigration doesn't poll well, but I think it would with an easy sell from Dems of, "Unemployment is at 4%, we need more workers, this is good for our economy and will make America richer." I'm not even going to look up polling on family separation, I'm sure a majority are for ending it. And TPS probably polls pretty neutrally, and would also be the least discussed part of the offer.