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Old 02-24-2018, 05:57 AM   #1
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Paul Manafort

If you have a short attention span, don't bother reading this as it's a stellar example of "long form" journalism sure to be appreciated only by hard core political junkies.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ustler/550925/

Yesterday's "big news" in the Mueller investigation was the guilty plea of Rick Gates, Manafort's long time business partner, with the explicit agreement and understanding that Mr. Gates will "cooperate" with Mr. Mueller. All the legal experts/pundits I listened to last night on cable TV described Mr. Gates's guilty plea as "ratcheting up the pressure" on Mr. Manafort to cut a deal [with Mueller] and cooperate; yet Mr. Manafort remains defiant. (Manafort's lawyer issued a statement saying, in effect, that he feels his former business partner should have stayed in the ring - just as he has chosen to stay in the ring - and fight.) So the natural question is: "With all these other folks copping deals and pleading guilty, why does Paul Manafort remain obstinate when a possible conviction means he could end up serving the rest of his life in prison?" (Manafort is 68 years old. A conviction on a single money laundering count carries a five year sentence and he's facing multiple counts.)

One possible explanation is that Paul Manafort is the type of character who has gotten away with so much for so long that he truly believes he's invincible - he actually believes he can beat Mueller. Paul Manafort might be suffering from DPD: Delusional Personality Disorder. (Leaked tweets sent by his daughter Andrea tend to support this theory.) This is one theory, but there may be a more profound reason for why Manafort is refusing to buckle. The second theory is more direct and it's a natural outgrowth of the article linked above. I call this theory the: "Prison Is Better Than Death" theory.

Let's suppose Paul Manafort goes to trial, his lawyer puts up a dazzling defense, the jury acquits, and Manafort walks. What are the odds on Paul Manafort staying healthy (and alive) while he walks the streets owing this Russian oligarch, Deripaska, $18,000,000.00? Over in Russia, "bad debts" to oligarchs are sometimes cancelled with a serving of hot lead delivered at high velocity - especially when the creditor has lost faith in the debtor's ability to repay. This theory might explain Manafort's stubbornness. In the long run he figures he'll probably be better off living out the rest of his life in a country club federal prison rather than copping out a deal to Mr. Mueller and eventually coming face-to-face with Oleg Deripaska - or one of his paid assassins.

This is another example of what happens when you play poker for higher stakes than you can afford.
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Old 02-24-2018, 07:46 AM   #2
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Re: Paul Manafort

Maybe he wasn't offered a very good deal from his ev pov. We don't know the details do we?

If the best on offer is still doing time and fearful of reprisals then at 68 he may be better off rolling the dice.

Maybe he has done so much wrong and simply doesn't have the killer info that would get him a deal worth taking.

Maybe he does have the killer info and is holding out for a better deal.

Then again maybe he is a ****ing idiot
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Old 02-24-2018, 10:20 AM   #3
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Originally Posted by Former DJ View Post
Paul Manafort owing this Russian oligarch, Deripaska, $18,000,000.00? Over in Russia, "bad debts" to oligarchs are sometimes cancelled with a serving of hot lead delivered at high velocity ...
I have read that Paul Manafort could spend money with the best of them.

That said, I don't understand where all his money went, and in particular where the Russian oligarchs $18 million went ?

His real estate holdings are mortgaged to the hilt, so it's not there.

Buying yachts will break you, but I don't remember reading he was into yachts.

I think he grossed north of $50 million from his overseas lobbying in the last decade, so let's say half of that went to expenses.

That leaves $25 million, $5 million of that goes to Rick Gates.

OK, so Paul Manafort blows $20 million living and renovating properties ?

What did Manafort do with the Oligarch's $18 million ?

I don't think Manafort has it hidden overseas, because Mueller would have found traces of it, and we would have read about it.

It sounds like Manafort could spend money faster than an NBA player.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...223-story.html
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Old 02-24-2018, 11:02 AM   #4
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Let's suppose Paul Manafort goes to trial, his lawyer puts up a dazzling defense, the jury acquits, and Manafort walks.
lol, that's not ever gonna happen.
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:30 AM   #5
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Re: Paul Manafort

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?..
Yesterday's "big news" in the Mueller investigation was the guilty plea of Rick Gates, Manafort's long time business partner, with the explicit agreement and understanding that Mr. Gates will "cooperate" with Mr. Mueller. All the legal experts/pundits I listened to last night on cable TV described Mr. Gates's guilty plea as "ratcheting up the pressure" on Mr. Manafort to cut a deal [with Mueller] and cooperate; yet Mr. Manafort remains defiant.
.....
Caveat, I acknowledge that Gates may not testify at any Manafort trial. If Gates does testify, how effective will Gates testimony be? He pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and a conspiracy charge. So we have a guy that is undoubtedly going to get a lighter sentence than he would have otherwise if convicted of all charges turning states evidence that has admitted to lying and willing to deceive the US government. How credible of a witness is that exactly?
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:41 AM   #6
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Caveat, I acknowledge that Gates may not testify at any Manafort trial. If Gates does testify, how effective will Gates testimony be? He pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and a conspiracy charge. So we have a guy that is undoubtedly going to get a lighter sentence than he would have otherwise if convicted of all charges turning states evidence that has admitted to lying and willing to deceive the US government. How credible of a witness is that exactly?
You realize that much of his potential testimony is going to be to authenticate and explain the circumstances surrounding the mountain of evidence against Manafort? It's not like he's a busted junkie acting as a jailhouse informant towards an inmate he just met hours before.

Keep wishcasting, Dude!

P.S. Tell Hannity I said "Hi."
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Old 02-25-2018, 02:15 PM   #7
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Re: Paul Manafort

Muller's team and the evidence they have (e.g., 78 imaged computers, lots of docs from Cypress, etc.) and their witnesses vs. Manafort is like an NFL team vs a high school team, and the NFL teams gets a 14 point head start. The only way Manafort wins is if there is a literally insane person on the jury (figure 1-2% chance) who refuses to convict, and then they just retry him. Also, Manafort will need to find $1M+ to pay his legal team, and it sounds like he needs $.

This is not a normal legal matter, this is shock and awe. If Manafort does not plead it will only be because he fears for his life.

Also, most of the charges vs Manafort are "paper" charges, i.e., they don't require witnesses. They could put him away for life without Gates. And Gates is not a jailhouse snitch. He's a professional who plead so he would not be convicted for the things he did with Manafort. It's extreme wishcasting to suggest that Gates' lack of credibility would be helpful.

Last edited by simplicitus; 02-25-2018 at 02:20 PM.
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Old 02-25-2018, 05:22 PM   #8
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Muller's team and the evidence they have (e.g., 78 imaged computers, lots of docs from Cypress, etc.) and their witnesses vs. Manafort is like an NFL team vs a high school team, and the NFL teams gets a 14 point head start. The only way Manafort wins is if there is a literally insane person on the jury (figure 1-2% chance) who refuses to convict, and then they just retry him. Also, Manafort will need to find $1M+ to pay his legal team, and it sounds like he needs $.

This is not a normal legal matter, this is shock and awe. If Manafort does not plead it will only be because he fears for his life.

Also, most of the charges vs Manafort are "paper" charges, i.e., they don't require witnesses. They could put him away for life without Gates. And Gates is not a jailhouse snitch. He's a professional who plead so he would not be convicted for the things he did with Manafort. It's extreme wishcasting to suggest that Gates' lack of credibility would be helpful.
Trump has a 35% approval rating.
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Old 02-26-2018, 01:04 AM   #9
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Trump has a 35% approval rating.
I'm not worried about someone or two someones who "approve" of Trump deadlocking a jury of 11 other people in a federal criminal case. I'm talking about a literally insane person. Do you not understand "approval" of Trump is not a proxy for deadlocking a jury in a major criminal case, or is your comment meant to imply that the rate of insanity is a good deal over 1-2% if Trump has 35% approval.

Anyway, it'd be a DC jury, where Trump is at like 8% approval. (Actually, it'd be a DC AND and an Eastern Virginia jury, think federal employees and contractors, as there are now two cases.)
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Old 03-13-2018, 04:58 PM   #10
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Re: Paul Manafort

Manafort could face ‘rest of life in prison,’ judge says
U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis III, who is based in Alexandria, Virginia, and is assigned to a newly filed indictment against Manafort dealing with bank fraud and tax evasion, said the veteran lobbyist and political consultant posed “a substantial risk of flight” because of his assets and the gravity of his legal predicament.

“The defendant is a person of great wealth who has the financial means and international connections to flee and remain at large, as well as every incentive to do so,” Ellis wrote in an order setting the terms of what the judge called “home incarceration” for Manafort, 68, who lives in Alexandria but also has homes in Florida and on Long Island.

“Given the nature of the charges against the defendant and the apparent weight of the evidence against him, defendant faces the very real possibility of spending the rest of his life in prison,” wrote Ellis, an appointee of President Ronald Reagan.

The order, dated Friday, puts Manafort in a “24-hour-a-day lockdown”
at his Alexandria condo, except for medical appointments or emergencies, court appearances and meeting with his defense attorneys. Ellis did not require Manafort to post any assets, but did order that he pay $10 million if he fails to appear in court.
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:23 PM   #11
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Originally Posted by DrChesspain View Post
You realize that much of his potential testimony is going to be to authenticate and explain the circumstances surrounding the mountain of evidence against Manafort? It's not like he's a busted junkie acting as a jailhouse informant towards an inmate he just met hours before.

Keep wishcasting, Dude!

P.S. Tell Hannity I said "Hi."
LOL we'll see. Pointing out that someone who pleads guilty to lying to the FBI has credibility issues as a witness isn't wish casting about anything. It remains to be seen what the "mountain of evidence" consists of. Btw I like how you all are fine with the federal government having unlimited resources more or less to attempt to convict someone from a political party you oppose. Remember that can work both ways.

Oh btw Manafort may have a get out of jail free card. He puts up a good fight, creates some doubt, gets some decent publicity might look a victim to much of the public.
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:25 PM   #12
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Re: Paul Manafort

lol
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:25 PM   #13
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Re: Paul Manafort

lmao
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:26 PM   #14
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Re: Paul Manafort

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LOL we'll see. Pointing out that someone who pleads guilty to lying to the FBI has credibility issues as a witness isn't wish casting about anything. It remains to be seen what the "mountain of evidence" consists of. Btw I like how you all are fine with the federal government having unlimited resources more or less to attempt to convict someone from a political party you oppose. Remember that can work both ways.
LOL so much butthurt in this post. LOCK HER UP! Shut up libs or else TRUMP will put Obama in jail for being Kenyan and you can't complain!
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:30 PM   #15
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Re: Paul Manafort

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I'm not worried about someone or two someones who "approve" of Trump deadlocking a jury of 11 other people in a federal criminal case. I'm talking about a literally insane person. Do you not understand "approval" of Trump is not a proxy for deadlocking a jury in a major criminal case, or is your comment meant to imply that the rate of insanity is a good deal over 1-2% if Trump has 35% approval.

Anyway, it'd be a DC jury, where Trump is at like 8% approval. (Actually, it'd be a DC AND and an Eastern Virginia jury, think federal employees and contractors, as there are now two cases.)
So you are claiming that a jury in DC and Virginia will convict based on their political views and obviously you are just fine with that. Disgusting.
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:31 PM   #16
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Oh btw Manafort may have a get out of jail free card. He puts up a good fight, creates some doubt, gets some decent publicity might look a victim to much of the public.
yeah well most of us expect trump to pardon him because they're part of the same criminal conspiracy. but trump pardoning his compatriots proves he's knowingly part of the criminal conspiracy and after he leaves office he'll be charged like the mafia boss who's technically kept his hands clean
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:32 PM   #17
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Re: Paul Manafort

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So you are claiming that a jury in DC and Virginia will convict based on their political views and obviously you are just fine with that. Disgusting.
Actually if you try reading the post again, he said DC and Virginia are unlikely hotbeds for Trumpkins to slip into a jury pool and intentionally deadlock the jury. I know reading is hard for you.
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Old 03-13-2018, 07:05 PM   #18
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Re: Paul Manafort

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Originally Posted by adios View Post
LOL we'll see. Pointing out that someone who pleads guilty to lying to the FBI has credibility issues as a witness isn't wish casting about anything. It remains to be seen what the "mountain of evidence" consists of. Btw I like how you all are fine with the federal government having unlimited resources more or less to attempt to convict someone from a political party you oppose. Remember that can work both ways.

Oh btw Manafort may have a get out of jail free card. He puts up a good fight, creates some doubt, gets some decent publicity might look a victim to much of the public.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:30 PM   #19
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Re: Paul Manafort

‘Collusion’ by The Guardian’s Luke Harding has a chapter on Manafort as well as the Russian. Cliff note...Manafort is worse than commonly thought by his many detractors. The book (Nov. 2017) is extremely readable. There is a podcast on Fresh Air with the author.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:10 AM   #20
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Re: Paul Manafort

re: adios

Why anyone, especially a Republican even a Trumpkin would be in Manafort's corner is beyond me. He's pure scuz and even the strategic play is to throw him under the bus.
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Old 03-15-2018, 07:25 AM   #21
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Re: Paul Manafort

The only overarching Republican orthodoxy is to oppose liberals. That's why adios defends manafort. That's why they publicly sided with Nazis after Charlottesville.
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Old 03-15-2018, 10:25 PM   #22
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Re: Paul Manafort

A toolbag like adios not supporting Manafort would be the bigger surprise.
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Old 03-15-2018, 10:31 PM   #23
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Re: Paul Manafort

adios defends manafort the day a judge overseeing manafort's case says manafort faces the "rest of his life in prison" and orders him on 24-hour lockdown. i'm sure adios feels he knows a lot more about this situation than that judge
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Old 03-16-2018, 06:56 AM   #24
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Re: Paul Manafort

activist partisan judge legislating from the bench tho
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Old 03-16-2018, 07:00 AM   #25
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Re: Paul Manafort

Judge was appointed by Reagan
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