Adanthar mentioned in another thread that he was depositing on intrade because he feels it is very easy to beat. He also said he would periodically post screen shots to show how vulnerable the market is. Clearly it has never met the intellect of Mr. Adanthar, so this should be exciting.

Rather than "periodically post screen shots," I recommend that Adanthar announce his buys and sells as they happen, so we can accurately keep tabs on him, and not rely only on what he wants to show us. This is really the only legitimate way to later claim that you are crushing the market. So here is your arena Adanthar. Have at it.

Let us know if you want to play along, to show us how much you will crush the market. If not, I guess iron should just delete this thread.

GL, Mr. Adanthar.

If iron lets this thread stand, I accept the challenge.

I deposited 10K on Intrade (all it can take without me killing my own action) a couple of hours ago, which will hopefully hit by the end of the week.

This thread is fine. I sure hope the deposit hits by the end of the week, Iowa is less than two weeks away. I signed up for an account myself, but it was too much of a hassle to only bet a couple hundred dollars.

I'll be particularly interested in your long positions, there are a ton of people saying how candidates with "no chance" should be shorted. Especially those of you who would short Clinton.

Is is alright if I play along with this thread, but only with fake money since I am broke as hell?
What site do you guys use?

It'll be a little tricky for me to announce positions while I'm still holding them*, but I'll try.

*example: I think Obama winning IA is moderately correlated with Obama winning NH. Therefore, if I think Obama is 54% likely to win IA, but will then be 65% likely to win NH (huge Intrade disparity), I should pick up a bunch of NH positions right now and hold them at least until after IA. The problem is that only 777 shares of Obama in NH (at 10c/point) even changed hands today. If I tried to put more than a fraction of my total roll on this trade, I'd destroy the market, and then kill it even further when everyone went in after me.

So, while I promise to announce every trade eventually, I can't guarantee real time on some of the ones I plan to hold for less than a week or ones where I'm still in the process of filling orders.

edit: www.intrade.com

edit edit: wow, I checked out their forums. the first thing I see is a 91 post (huge for them) "Is Duncan Hunter gaining traction?" thread. this ought to be fun.

I think volumes on intrade is one problem. Do they get a lot of volume on anything except the major candidate props?

Intrade volume is terrible, so about 8K of that 10K is there only for really major candidates and/or total window dressing. The end result will likely have to be judged on percentage terms.

With that said, since "Intrade is reliable, at least as reliable as man is capable of predicting", at least one person fully expects me to lose exactly the rake in the long term

You show them, adanthar!

Sure. The more the merrier. If you keep track of your bets and other people do the same, we can keep standings.

Where do I bet on how much adanthar is gonna loose?

Name the terms/time of settlement/person to escrow with and we can handle that

Inspired by the market failure thread, in addition to bets involving money, I'd like to propose a number of prop bets for custom titles/avatars. We'll have to figure out what the terms are, but I want this to involve something market-related, like (for example) the amount of $ the Paul campaign spent per vote cast or the amount of bets I make on Intrade that > the max sustainable ROI you can get picking stocks...you get the idea.

If you win, I get a custom title of your choice for some amount of time. If I win, ditto. Anyone?

First! Let me think a minute.

I ain't scurred.

I want in on this.

Can't think of a specific bet to make off the top of my head, but I'm definitely game if you want to propose something specific.

I know you didn't want to accept Paul at 10% in NH. Did you say you actually found lines that listed him at 14%? Or is that just what people on here offered you? In any event, maybe since this is a unique bet not involving money you'll be willing to accept the action, since you're pretty sure he will be getting 6-7% of the vote and your reason for not wanting to accept the 10% was that you could get better odds on the same money elsewhere.

I'm out. ALaw should have this.

We could both do it, if adanthar accepts 2 way action (just if we both won, one of our title choices would obviously have to wait for the other one to expire). You did get on it first though, so I have no problem with you taking it if adanthar only wants 1 bet.

Cumulonimbus here gave me and somebody else 14%.

I'll take all comers on this bet, but I don't want to do any straight bets for this - it should be market related

hey about that, if you're still taking bets for 12% or overin NH, put me down for a thousand.

whoever asked, it was a typo/misread/confusion that led me to set it at 14%, but since I already laid the terms it was too late.

Adanthar is going to crush.

My prop bet would be that RP's % drops by at least x% going from NH to Michigan. He wont gain momentum from a better than expected showing in NH because of the loonie quotient. By the time it gets to Florida Id be shocked if he exceed 6% in any state.

I would like to bet that he does better in IA than NH.

I will bet that all day what are your terms and who is gonna hold the money ?

So you'll offer even odds that he won't exceed 6% in any state from Florida and beyond? Actually, since you'll be "shocked" I guess you'll offer even better odds!

I'll get back to you on that tomorrow because nobody's polled anyone all week, but I suspect if you're still willing to do this at the end of tomorrow I'll wind up taking it.

in the meantime, someone come up with a bet that would strongly suggest Intrade = inefficient, hugely beatable market if I win it plz.

Which part? If its the 6% after Florida obviously Im not giving you every other state for even money. If its the drop from NH to Mich. make an offer on X%