Wtf @ lack of shutdown discussion itf.

i think the lack of discussion is because it's utterly expected to happen given how massively incompetent the extremist republican party is

But I mean the fate of 800,000 people is on the line (including one of my besties, I might add). I thought we might get some speculation/insight into who on the Dem side will puss out and vote for a continuing resolution, what the politics look like for both parties, will we actually get path to citizenship for Dreamers at the end of this road, will we even get the original DACA back, will there be any wall, etc. This is ~1,000,000x more interesting and important than anything else in the news right now. Figured there'd be some discussion.

ETA: Don't flame me for the terrible OP. I just posted that as a comment in the Trump thread and it got excised.

Would be surprised if there's no shutdown. Trump loves brinksmanship, even if it undermines broader goals. It will likely happen and the next day he'll be at a $100k per person fundraiser at Mar-a-lago (when the spotlight is on him more intensely than usual).

His base will be impressed with his "strong leadership", the resistance will dig in even harder, and more "independents" will think "that boy ain't right." Most of the daily ups and down (well, downs) don't escape the politics information bubble or affect broader society, but a shutdown certainly will. And it will hurt Trump.

Interesting article:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...wn-2018-346494

I like how the R's have the WH, House and Senate and act like it's the Dems fault. And moron deplorables will believe it.

I think there's a significant chance at a lengthy shutdown - the record of 27 days could be in danger. Basically, I think the fact that you have three separate negotiating parties, not two, makes this very tough - and two have extremely strong support in their base.

1. Trump/Immigration Hardliners: Trump only truly cares about the wall and deporting minority immigrants. This is his only shot at the wall. I think he knows it (by which I actually mean he's being reminded of it daily by Miller). I think he may veto anything without a wall or threaten to. He's a total narcissist and probably views a shutdown as a positive, based on the stupid belief that it saves money.

2. Democrats - They're righteously indignant over DACA and CHIP, and if they cave without getting both, their base is going to be pissed. I suspect their phones will light up with continued support for standing their ground. The only way I see them giving any ground on the wall or immigration issues is if there's a citizenship process for DREAMers and a long term funding of CHIP.

3. Remaining Republicans - They want this to be over. They know they get screwed the worst in a shutdown, but if they don't back Trump, they all get primaried. They don't truly want a wall, they want other border security measures and other immigration reform that Dems hate and Trump couldn't explain. I suspect they will want to cave.

The problem for the GOP is Trump + GOP can't break a filibuster, but Trump could very well oppose any reasonable Dem + GOP compromise, and he likely has no real understanding of the repercussions of a long shutdown.

I fully expect his private response to be, "The shutdown saves us money. This is great. I'm the best. Plus, if the government is closed, I can golf more. Get my clubs, I'm playing 36 today."

Unless his base caves, this could go on a while.

Or, the Democrats are as dumb as we think, give a clean 5 day extension, cave on citizenship and give up all of GOP/Trump's goals for like a three year DACA extension as-was and CHIP for ~5 years. Trump mocks them and brags about his deal-making and how he's so great he made Democrats pay for the wall to get the same stuff they already had.

Interesting Prediction: I suspect generic Democratic approval ratings go down, but "strongly support" goes up while there is less lukewarm support.

Got to hand it to Republicans for the amazing bad faith of not renewing CHIP for months, then attaching it to the CR along with hardline immigration policies and then complaining that Democrats want to deny children healthcare over people who aren't even American citizens.

How hard is it to get a democrat on every TV network saying the same thing:

"Never in the history of our country has a unified government failed to produce funding for the government by being incapable of even the most basic forms of bipartisanship. The Republican Party wants to hold children's health care for ransom in order to force their toxic, extremist ideology on an unsuspecting American public, and we will not let them."

Edit

Alternatively, change the bill to fund CHIP permanently and see if repubs go for it, thus removing that bargaining chip forever. If they don’t, now it’s Rs who hate children.

Dems aren't good enough at messaging to pull either of these off, the government's going to shut down while controlled in every branch by Republicans who are going to successfully blame it all on 9 or 10 Dem Senators.

I think Trump's team is setting up a last second compromise. He'll say the Dems wanted to kick out the dreamers but Trump worked with them and saved dreamers from deportation.

The fact that he gets no funding for his beloved wall will go ignored while he claims to be a world-class negotiator and businessman.

Sorry to quote myself but:




Dems are already caving on the wall thing.

Did the Durbin deal include path to citizenship? Lol in any case @ Dems negotiating from the compromise position at the start. I guess Donald Trump literally is a master deal maker, because apparently in Washington that just means the bedrock basic idea of asking for more than you would actually settle for.

Btw I hope you guys are/have been flooding the phone lines and inboxes of these weak failures of Democrats.

Would be great if "@POTUS’s full request for the WALL" was $0, since Mexico is paying for it.

Since Trump says the wall is see through and is actually the surrounding mountain and desert then maybe the real cost is $0 anyway.

Democrats will deal and get back CHIP and DACA in exchange for work requirements for both.

Maybe Schumer sells him on an invisible electrified wall that is watched by levitated border patrol agents.

schumer: how about a clean daca and clean chip rn?

trump: ok sounds great

kelly: well hold on, cause we'd also like to re-legalize slavery

Trump's looking at the government shutdown like a holiday vacation. He thinks he gets to walk about playing golf in Florida, tweetstorming and watching Fox and Friends without interruption.

They could give him anything he wants and it wouldn't matter. The guy wants a vacation from being POTUS and thinks that this will be it.

It's actually the opposite. He already cancelled his trip to Mar A Lago for this evening. Clearly Kelly et al explained to him how terrible it looks if he's golfing during a crisis in Washington. This is actually the best line of attack for Dems. Give us what we want and you can spend the weekend watching TV in Florida.

I guess there are some things even Trump isn't dumb enough to do.