New Yorker: Texas May Admit To Execution Of a Legally and Factually Innocent Person - Page 8 - Politics and Economics

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New Yorker: Texas May Admit To Execution Of a Legally and Factually Innocent Person

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10-14-2009 , 03:13 PM

#176

ikestoys

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Wamy Einehouse

Totally wrong and long established by social scientists. All countries/states with the death penaly have vastly higher rates of murder - it in fact increases pretty much in direct proportion to the % of people being excecuted.

Edit. Here are the stats:

'For 2008, the average Murder Rate of Death Penalty States was 5.2, while the average Murder Rate of States without the Death Penalty was 3.3.'

Also compare the tables with the number of executions with the typical murder rates of each state.

I have a book full of numerous regressions done by social scientists establishing cause and effect on this as well but cannot find it. Give me a while and I'll try and dig it up and post title/links to that as well.

This is not proof of anything. Correlation != causation, more variables than just DP that make up murder rates, etc, etc.

not a dp supporter either.

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10-14-2009 , 03:26 PM

#177

billrake

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 376

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wamy Einehouse

Consider this in the context of the all or nothing effect on people's behavior in places with the death penalty and the conclusion is a little different.

Huh? I don't get your point. How so?

10-14-2009 , 04:07 PM

#178

Huehuecoyotl

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry defends arson investigation that led to Cameron Willingham's execution

Quote:

Calling Willingham "a monster" who was an acknowledged wife-beater, Perry said he harbors no doubts that the unemployed mechanic purposefully set fire to his Corsicana home in 1991 in order to kill his three young children.

"This was a guy who murdered his three children, who tried to beat his wife into an abortion – person after person has stood up and testified to the facts of this case, that, quite frankly, you guys aren't covering," Perry told reporters. "This was a bad man.”

Quote:

Asked what it would mean if post-conviction experts are correct and the fire wasn’t arson, Perry said he is convinced by other factors in the case beyond the science that Willingham committed the crime.

Former forensic panel chairman said Perry aides pressured him

Quote:

Samuel Bassett, whom Perry replaced on the commission two weeks ago, said he twice was called to meetings with Perry's top attorneys months before he and two other panel members were removed. At one meeting, he was told they were unhappy with the course of the panel's inquiry.

"I was surprised that they were involving themselves in the commission's decision-making," said Bassett, a lawyer who practices criminal defense and family law in Austin. "I did feel some pressure from them, yes. There's no question about that."

Quote:

Bassett says the governor's attorneys questioned the cost of the inquiry and asked why a fire scientist from Texas could not be hired to examine the case instead of the expert from Maryland the panel ultimately settled on. After the meeting, a staffer from the general counsel's office began to attend the commission's meetings, Bassett said.

Quote:

Beyler was scheduled to discuss the case at an Oct. 2 panel meeting, but three days before the meeting Perry replaced Bassett and two other commission members, Alan Levy, a prosecutor from Fort Worth, and Aliece Watts, a forensic scientist. Perry named John Bradley, a conservative prosecutor, to replace Bassett as chairman.

10-14-2009 , 04:11 PM

#179

Huehuecoyotl

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Perry defends removal of 3 before arson hearing

Quote:

On Wednesday, Perry decided to replace three members of the Texas Forensic Science Commission, including its chairman, just two days before it conducted a hearing to examine the case of Cameron Todd Willingham. The new chairman canceled the meeting.

"What's happening is that we're following the normal protocol of the state. Those individuals' terms were up, so we replaced them," Perry said.

Quote:

The new chairman named by Perry is Williamson County District Attorney John Bradley, known as one of the toughest law-and-order prosecutors in the state.

Quote:

Perry recently discounted the findings of a myriad of scientists, who in three separate reviews concluded that Willingham fire investigators relied on old, discredited indicators of arson – "wives' tales," as some called it. They said the fire might have been caused by a faulty space heater or bad wiring.

In an interview last month with The Dallas Morning News, Perry said, "I'm familiar with the latter-day supposed experts on the arson side of it," and made quotation marks with his fingers to underscore his skepticism. He said the records he reviewed before allowing the execution showed "clear and compelling, overwhelming evidence that he was in fact the murderer of his children."

Spoiler:

Last edited by Huehuecoyotl; 10-14-2009 at 04:29 PM.

10-14-2009 , 05:19 PM

#180

rjoefish

Got Out the Vote

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,086

Quote:

Perry said he is convinced by other factors in the case beyond the science that Willingham committed the crime.

That should scare anyone living in Texas IMO.

10-14-2009 , 05:32 PM

#181

Huehuecoyotl

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rjoefish

That should scare anyone living in Texas IMO.

Perry Appoints New State Board of Education Chairman

Quote:

Lowe, a conservative, was still a far less controversial choice than another potential appointee, Cynthia Dunbar (less Obama citizenship questioning, at least). She has been a member of the board since 2002, and is also publisher of a bi-weekly newspaper, the Lampasas Dispatch Record, and a former trustee of the Lampasas Independent School District.

However, she has fervidly advocated for Creationism in the classroom enough to draw plenty of criticism. The former SBOE chairman, Don McLeroy, lost his position partially due to his polarizing views on the subject.

the BOE chairman's position was between a birther and a creationist. Science? What is this science you speak of?

10-15-2009 , 05:06 AM

#182

Barrin6

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I just read the whole article. Article was also assigned to me for my "Miscarriage of Justice" class. That was a truly sad story.

The sad thing is that if something like the airline industry had a .5% chance of plane malfunctioning and nose-diving, there would be change in regulations and inspections to make sure something like that would never happen. But when an innocent man is accused, little is done.

Prosecutors lie, cell mate snitches lie to get a better sentence, junk science happens, eye witness testimonies aren't 100% accurate, cops mess with the evidence.

The system is a completely ****ed up

10-15-2009 , 08:49 AM

#183

Wamy Einehouse

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

This is not proof of anything. Correlation != causation, more variables than just DP that make up murder rates, etc, etc.

not a dp supporter either.

I do have the full regressions of this that establish cause and effect just cant find the damn things. The best I can find off hand is from a religious tolerance website so it may not be the most reliable but it is fully referenced and I remember a few of the studies from when I was working on this fully (over three years ago now).

Here are some of the key points:

- A 1995 study of the annual percentage increases in homicide rates in California showed that murders increased 10% a year during 1952 to 1967 when the state was executing people. When the state performed no executions (1968-1991) the average rate of increase was less (4.8%)

- A 1980 study of homicides in New York found that the average numbers of murders increased in the month following an execution

- Canada's homicide rate has dropped 27% since the death penalty was abolished in that country (for ordinary crimes) in 1976. For many years prior to 1976, the federal government had converted each death sentence to life imprisonment.

- The FBI Uniform Crime Reports Division publication Crime in the US for 1995 reports that there were 4.9 murders per 100,000 people in states that have abolished the death penalty, compared with 9.2 murders in those states which still have the death penalty. "In no state has the number of murders diminished after legalizing the death penalty."

- Comparing adjacent states where one state has the death penalty and the other does not, frequently shows that the states with capital punishment have a much higher homicide rate.

This is all further backed up by data from European countries post abolition of the death penalty from what I recall.

All from http://www.religioustolerance.org/execut4.htm

10-15-2009 , 09:25 PM

#184

ikestoys

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Crime rates have fallen throughout the US... this kind of puts a wrench into that argument. You aren't going to be able to prove that there is no deterrence from the death penalty, you will be able to say that there is not evidence of it, but that is different from what you are saying.

10-16-2009 , 10:42 AM

#185

DVaut1

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Sen. Kay Bay Hutchinson, who's running against Perry in the Texas GOP primary for governor, tries to outflank Perry on the "oops we maybe executed an innocent guy" issue. Here's her press release:

http://texans.forkay.com/news/10-14-...nce_Commission

Quote:

“As hard as Rick Perry’s office and his campaign may try to divert from the issue, this is not about one man or one case. The issue is Rick Perry’s heavy-handed politicization of a process and Commission established by the legislature to provide critical oversight. First, Rick Perry delayed the formation of the Texas Forensic Science Commission, then he tried to ensure it didn’t have funding and when all else failed, he fired everyone he could. The only thing Rick Perry’s actions have accomplished is giving liberals an argument to discredit the death penalty. Kay Bailey Hutchison is a steadfast supporter of the death penalty, voted to reinstate it when she served in the Texas House and believes we should never do anything to create a cloud of controversy over it with actions that look like a cover-up.”

[ ] concerned the state of Texas is executing innocent people
[x] concerned Rick Perry's botching the handling of this case might get in the way of executing more people

10-16-2009 , 10:50 AM

#186

Huehuecoyotl

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The DP is state institution in Texas and "tough on crime" is a religious mantra.

10-16-2009 , 10:58 AM

#187

Wamy Einehouse

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

No it doesn't. This is why social scientists use regressions and other forms of statistical analysis to isolate variables.

You can show to an extremely high degree of accuracy that the death penalty not only had no detterent but actually incourages more murders.

Please see above for ample evidence that crime both rises after executions and falls when it is abolished.

10-16-2009 , 12:03 PM

#188

elwoodblues

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 5,393

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

Just saying that crime rates have fallen is absolutely meaningless for a whole host of reasons. First, if you don't also include what has happened with capital punishment in the same time frame you have only provide part of the equation. Further, "crime rates" measure a whole host of things that even those who think the Death Penalty is a deterrent the death penalty wouldn't deter (i.e. robbery.)

10-16-2009 , 11:14 PM

#189

ikestoys

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elwoodblues

Yeah so you aren't really reading the thread. Criticizing my criticism for not including variables when, er, that is my criticism really doesn't make much sense.

10-16-2009 , 11:22 PM

#190

ikestoys

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wamy Einehouse

It's pretty obvious you have no idea what regressions and statistical analysis actually are, so I'm incouraging (lol) you to find a cite from an academic source that shows the dp causes an increase in murder.

The wiki link on the subject is quite interesting actually:

Quote:

Naci Mocan, an economist at Louisiana State University, authored a study that looked at all 3,054 U.S. counties over two decades, and concluded that each execution saved five lives. Mocan stated, "I personally am opposed to the death penalty... But my research shows that there is a deterrent effect."
...
Joanna M. Shepherd, a law professor at Emory with a doctorate in economics who was involved in several studies on the death penalty, stated, "I am definitely against the death penalty on lots of different grounds... But I do believe that people respond to incentives." Shepherd found that the death penalty had a deterrent effect only in those states that executed at least nine people between 1977 and 1996. In the Michigan Law Review in 2005, Shepherd wrote, "Deterrence cannot be achieved with a half-hearted execution program."
...
In recent years, a number of new studies have been published, mostly by economists, that statistically demonstrate a deterrent effect of the death penalty.[21] However, critics claim severe methodological flaws in these studies and hold that the empirical data offer no basis for sound statistical conclusions about the deterrent effect.

I haven't gone over these papers personally, but they seem interesting enough to post.

10-16-2009 , 11:27 PM

#191

ikestoys

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Oh and the point I'm really beating around here, and that you may not get, is that it is very hard to prove a negative in a complex system like this. You simply can not take out all the other variables that make up a murder rate and leave the DP factor in. It's pretty simple.

10-17-2009 , 06:59 AM

#192

Wamy Einehouse

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

lol

10-18-2009 , 05:57 AM

#193

Barrin6

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You guys can argue how death penalty can or cannot deter crimes but the biggest problem is the fact that the system itself convicts/ruins the lives of innocent and that itself undermines its system.

I wish there was an easy way to only convict the people who really deserve the death penalty but it's not easy.