Tell us how you feel about Donald and Melania Trump having the same age difference.

After Trump 5% equity being taken totally seriously on here, no waaaaaaay am I counting Macron chickens till they are hatched.

I haven't read a ton about the French election so apologies if people have been over this, but from what I'm reading today - seems like...
- almost every candidate who lost today is like "hay, if you voted for me, please vote against Le Pen"
- candidates not named Marine Le Pen absolutely dominated against candidates named Marine Le Pen, 79-21

Seems like a good sign going into the runoff?

Nate Silver always brings excitement to this thread so let's see what he thinks:

Seems like the situation is comparable to the Kansas 4th special election. Le Pen can perform way above expectation, Macron can completely **** the bed, and he's still likely to win fairly comfortably.

It really is the French's turn to save western civilization. Bon chance mes amies.

So glad for Europe that Macron's poll numbers held up. Macron's coalition will be much broader than Clinton's. He did very well with old people and reasonably well in rural France. The political landscape is very different from he US. He will beat Le Pen in many parts of rural West France, and easily beat her in urban areas.

Looking good so far France, respect.

If Macron winning is not a good thing, then who out of the other candidates would have been better, and why?

I'm quite surprised by this. I remember seeing a huge number of immigrants in Nice and Marseille. Is it that the immigrants in cities are outweighed by people living in Middle-of-nowhere, Provence or do immigrants have a lower voter turnout that native-born French citizens?

Many Trump supporters rationalized their vote for him assuming that Congress would moderate Trump's agenda. I know that their governments are not the same, but I wouldn't place much faith in them.

Mélenchon's support for a Frexit referendum and a NATO withdrawal would be enough to push me away from him if I was a French citizen. I wonder if Sanders would have espoused similar anti-establishment views on foreign policy if he had the opportunity to do so.

Le Pen vote % by city:

Paris 5
Nantes 7
Lyon 8
Toulouse 9
Montpellier 13
Lille 14
Marseille 24
Nice 25

Cliffs: the South always consists of racist ****s

It seems like this is probably the case looking at the results in my city, Lyon. The richer districts with mostly native-born citizens (1st, 2nd, 6th) were all around 83% turnout whereas the districts with more immigrants (7th-9th) ranged from 75-81% turnout. The less affluent districts voted more heavily for Le Pen though (10-13% range compared to 4-8% for the 3 rich districts).

What is going so wrong in France that they feel the need for change ?

How many terrorist attacks can you count off the top of your head in France since 2015?
What's the youth unemployment rate?

Like it's not just the viewers who apparently don't understand polls. Some very prominent members of the media either cannot grasp the concept of 29% Expected Value or they simply refuse to because the take "the polls were totally wrong!" is way more fun to engage in.


https://twitter.com/ron_fournier/sta...26783314079746


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...30476121989120

I think the politics forum could use a nate silver containment thread!

I'm done with my little polling derail. I just think it's interesting that people have the reaction that we should get rid of polls, as opposed to learning more about them and learning to make better use of them in the future. They're just another tool, and like any tool they can be misused to cause damage or they can be very valuable.

Nothing like in every first world country

Rich complain about work and tax
Median income complain about work and taxes
Poor complain about not being able to get the new iphon

Very few people live in misery but half the population think they belong to that category

10% unemployment while those in work hang on to their 35 hour capped working week and long holidays is not a recipe for social cohesion.

My pony is probable slow but its awesome how the cities that actually have terrorist attacks are the most accepting and the Podunk town are the ones fear mongering it up. Same in the US.



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Same in London too with the highest Remain vote.

Big cities are always far more progressive than the provinces.

I know lolUSA-TrumpvHillary and all, but c'mon now France, Le Pen and Macron? She is obv nut terrible, but he is also one real creepy dude. That wife of his :x

ehhh