Le Pen France elections your thoughts - Page 21 - Politics and Economics

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Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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04-22-2017 , 12:57 AM

#501

Vecernicek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,781

WAAF

04-22-2017 , 01:04 AM

#502

ye90

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 263

Hillary won the first debate. Trump won the second debate. Third debate was a tie.

FACTS

04-22-2017 , 01:05 AM

#503

ye90

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 263

The reason Hillary won all the focus groups is cos of this:

04-22-2017 , 01:08 AM

#504

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

HRC won ALL of the focus groups and scientific polls because of fake news reporting that CNN rigged theirs? Adds up.

04-22-2017 , 02:20 AM

#505

Trolly McTrollson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 36,910

Quote:

Originally Posted by wheatrich

We just had nearly everyone on 2p2 be completely ****ing wrong the entire time on the US election regarding trump but thinking lepen @ 32% is absurd?

Are you all the same people who thought hillary was 99% and won all those debates she didn't like 2p2 insisted?

04-22-2017 , 03:16 AM

#506

An_Reathai

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 127

Just did a quiz on Le Monde's website to see which candidate I matched best with: turns out I'm apparently much closer to Hamon's position than anyone else (a 78% match). Kind of surprised by that. If I was French, I think I'd actually be voting Macron tomorrow - to keep the Right and the fascists out of power. Apparently I side with Le Pen 6% of the time, which seems about 6% too much.

http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/...1_4355770.html

04-22-2017 , 05:50 AM

#507

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by wheatrich

Yes, this is why I'm trying not to go along with the 2p2 crowd. I've never seen a bunch of people be so arrogantly sure of something, then get it so badly wrong. I was stupid enough to go along with this. Never again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ye90

Hillary won the first debate. Trump won the second debate. Third debate was a tie.

FACTS

Doesn't matter who won debates. What matters is who votes. Debates are fairly meaningless in deciding the outcome of an election. They're good entertainment though.

04-22-2017 , 06:46 AM

#508

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 12,650

At 4/1 I'd rather back Le Pen than lay her.

Betting at odds on usually loses money in the long run - picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

04-22-2017 , 07:03 AM

#509

Kukraprout

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by wheatrich

What is the reasoning that puts her at 32%?

"Polls always underestimate Trumps, Brexits, and Le Pens" <- not true, Le Pens have been around for many elections and havent systematically been underestimated

"Polls are useless, anything can happen between the 4 top candidates" <- then she should be at 25%, not 32%

"The attack on the Champs-Elysees changed everything" <- It didnt, there have been way worst attacks than it that didnt really moved the needle

I'm not saying she's at 0%, but she's definitely not at 32%.

04-22-2017 , 07:28 AM

#510

ye90

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 263

She's at like 21% likelihood to win right now according to legit bookies. Macron at 55%.

04-22-2017 , 07:29 AM

#511

daca

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,499

Quote:

Originally Posted by wheatrich

i spent a decent amount of time telling people that the 20-30% trump had on betfair were probably about right. now im saying the 20% le pen has is probably about right because markets are pretty good at pricing stuff (but lol predictit).

04-22-2017 , 07:50 AM

#512

BABARtheELEPHANT

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,919

you guys forget that french don't have access to the markets to set the right price. If we could, we would put the money where our mouth is and take your money. The bias w/ brexit and trump is real. If I could, I would bet lepen NO @68 and mélenchon YES @10.

04-22-2017 , 08:34 AM

#513

MultiTabling

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

25%, 32%, does it really make a difference? I doubt anybody here can assess the chances to within that degree of accuracy.

04-22-2017 , 09:15 AM

#514

Kukraprout

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Quote:

Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT

Hypermind (lol play money, I know) is full of French people. Their current numbers make sense to me though I'd have Fillon and Mélenchon closer:
Macron 63%
Fillon 25%
Le Pen 12%
Mélenchon 5%

Betfair:
Macron 57%
Fillon 17%
Le Pen 21%
Mélenchon 6%

Predictit:
Macron 56%
Fillon 15%
Le Pen 32%
Mélenchon 11%

Predictit seems completely irrational and their numbers add up to 114% so fade everyone I guess?

04-22-2017 , 09:25 AM

#515

Kukraprout

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,231

Someone made a model:

04-22-2017 , 09:33 AM

#516

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,671

LePen-Macron 2nd round probability seems wildly high. I agree that's a small majority but seems like it's closer to 50-60.

04-22-2017 , 10:21 AM

#517

ye90

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 263

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

Someone made a model:

PioSolver?

04-22-2017 , 11:44 AM

#518

Rucksack

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

Those Hypermind numbers make the most sense to me, but I think Le Pen is overrated even at 12% and Fillon is underrated at 25%.

04-22-2017 , 12:13 PM

#519

plexiq

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,557

Smarkets also has a market for this btw:
https://next.smarkets.com/event/7782...ench-president

04-23-2017 , 04:49 AM

#520

andre006

Champions Du Monde

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 12,317

Eye test and hearing some comments says turnout should be high.

04-23-2017 , 04:52 AM

#521

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 12,650

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

It's the overround. They have to make a profit.

04-23-2017 , 05:32 AM

#522

BABARtheELEPHANT

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,919

I think a big turnout favors Mélenchon a lot and Macron at a smaller scale. Thoughts?

04-23-2017 , 05:57 AM

#523

andre006

Champions Du Monde

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 12,317

I'm guessing Melenchon and Asselineau will overperform the polls the most, I don't see the abstentionist vote benefiting Macron.

04-23-2017 , 06:12 AM

#524

pyatnitski

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 423

Well, the turnout at midday is basically the same as 2012, which, if it held, would be more than expected. All I think you can say is that it probably doesn't help Le Pen if turnout is higher, but it often seems most of the turnout narratives people tell during the days of elections end up as nonsense.

04-23-2017 , 06:13 AM

#525

Fossilkid93

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 14,209

Doesn't seem like there will be a 2002 level pathetic turnout.

The participation rate by noon per election:

2002 - 21,5%
2007 - 30,0%
2012 - 28,3%
2017 - 28,5%

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