It looks like the Le Pen regions have more population than the Macron ones. If we had an electoral college system we would elect the fascist too!

I guess it's surprising that Britany which is furthest from Europe votes Macron whereas eastern regions such as grand est and bourgogne votes le pen

Also posted in the big Trump thread:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...68516920332289

Grunchy: I assume Trump is rooting for the Putin/Le Pen ticket?

I wonder if Trump supporting Le Pen would actually help or hurt her? I'm pretty sure here in Ireland Trump is considered by 90%+ of people as a dangerous buffoon. Wonder what the attitude of French voters to Trump is?

the strangest thing about the putin stuff is why anyone gives enough of a **** about russia to be pro putin in the first place. mostly they're just not important at all.

I stayed in France for 3 weeks in February/March and didn't hear a single positive comment about Donald Trump from anybody whether they were talking to me or somebody else.

Of course Le Pen supporters are probably pushing the "She's nothing like Donald Trump" or "She's so much more progressive than her father" angle to justify voting for her.

She would love to have Trump's support. She made a weird visit to the Trump tower a few months ago that might have been an attempt to get a picture taken with him. She was also delighted to get Putin's support even though he is at least as unpopular as Trump in France. Her potential voters are less put off by both of them than the general population. Also, any connection with a major foreign leader is a huge credibility boost for her.

Hopefully the French people will get what is at stake and make the right choice!

Gonna wait till after the first round to max out my bets against Le Pen. Will feel dumb but relieved if she doesn't make it to round 2.

Good luck, France. We're all counting on you.

I'm originally from PACA.

People don't know who Macron is. (true story)

I think I got my answer.

Trump: Paris attack will 'probably help' Le Pen in France

Bolded sounds vaguely familiar.

She's a neo nazi like me!

If you're maxing out, you need to be absolutely certain she will lose. I'm pretty sure you said you maxed out your bets on Clinton in the US election and that didn't turn out so well (not getting at you, just urging you to be cautious! ).

For sure, def not betting money I can't afford to lose.

if le pen gets above 25% and/or marcon's numbers just dont hold then ill start to worry

What are the odds like on a lepen lay? I would load the truck if my government didn't prevent me from betting online

Depends on how drunk you are.

Le Pen at 32% on Predictit.

I would feel worse robbing a grandma in the street than taking these fool's money. That's a slam dunk no at 68 cents.

21% on betfair

lol overexcited Trump fans. That's absurd.

The last polls before media blackout (some done on the 21st) are still around 24% Macron, 23% Le Pen, 19% Fillon and Melenchon. Le Pen is still drawing dead against Macron in the second round and would need some historical upset to beat the two others.

This campaign featured the goat against a bag of tools, the revenge for 2005.

We just had nearly everyone on 2p2 be completely ****ing wrong the entire time on the US election regarding trump but thinking lepen @ 32% is absurd?

Are you all the same people who thought hillary was 99% and won all those debates she didn't like 2p2 insisted?

Hillary did win the debates, as reflected in surveys where even a large minority of Republicans thought she won.

The "Hillary wins 99%" people were always clowns. The situation with LePen is dramatically different. There were no polls as far as I can recall that showed HRC with over 50% of the vote. And even head to head polls had people refusing to answer. This always left the door open for Trump's ~43% vote share in polls to be much larger in reality.

In the Macron/LePen head-to-heads, if memory serves, Macron leads by something like 20 points. That is a lot, and it would take a much more extraordinary polling problem than in the US election for her to overcome that gulf.

What's the global effect of a Le Pen victory? Is it closer to WAAF or no big deal?