Can LePen defeat Melenchon in the 2nd round?

Hasn't been polled much, but those that do exist have Mélenchon as a solid favourite - 63-37 in one from a few days ago.

Really don't know how much stock you can put in that. Barbar's view, that he's a dangerous extremist, is not at all uncommon in my experience, usually from people who have a similar view of Le Pen. If you have sizeable parts of the country thinking that lunatics are getting in either way I expect 'strange' results are much more possible.

Ok I'm shook now.

http://mobile.lemonde.fr/election-pr...1_4854003.html


It's a coinflip for Macron to advance to the second round. If he doesnt I have no idea what happens anymore and all possible results are various levels of terrible. Let's just rand this **** and get it over with.

This is probably another Brexit/Trump in the making. I read somewhere that a third of French people won't vote and the other third don't know (don't knows = many shy/last minute Le Pen voters).

Unenthusiastic left voters + Deeply enthusiastic Le Pen voters + shy/last minute Le Pen voters not taken into account by polls + Russian interference in election = Le Pen win

Also don't listen to mainstream media on this. They spout a load of **** and have no credibility anymore.

At least Mélenchon is going to save Air France first thing elected...

Can someone compare this Melenchon guy to a USA politician. He's left, right? So I would think this forum would be all for him. Is he farther left than Sanders? Is it because he is the one candidate who could lose to Le Pen?

He's much further Left than any US politician has ever been AINEC.

In Europe Sanders would be only slightly to the left of centre. Mélenchon's platform includes plans to borrow and spend, while taxing huge incomes over E30k/month at 100% and lowering the legal working week from 35 hours to 32 hours.

He's an unreconstructed old fashioned traditional Socialist.

Starting with first class

You're giving him way too much credit. He's the youngest senator ever, been around the parti socialiste for ever, voted enthusiastically for Maastricht, was pro-intervention in libya.

If he was that much of a revolutionnary why would a bank finance his campaign for 8M€?

Also he won't be able to apply his program within the EU framework, he'll make **** stall like Tsipras, pretend like he did his best and go on with the EU program.

The same poll has second rounds:



Macron > Mélenchon> Fillon > Le Pen

The Mélenchon surge is absurd. The guy has a few good lines in a debate and a huge chunk of the voters go from moderate or fascist to hardcore socialists. Incredible.

Things like minimum wage at 1.8k will pass tho. That's something you can't go back from until it's too late. Youth unemployment is what? 25%? Probably close to 50% in the projects because of their ****ty productivity. Up the minimum wage to 1.8k and you've got hundred of thousand of people with no future what so ever. Who is he going to blame when they rightfully riot?

Do you think he'll get a majority in the coming legislative elections?

It's hard to say. If french logically votes, then yes, he will mathematically get a majority. The elections are 2 month apart, right? If between the 2 elections, he sticks to the same level of crazy as right now, he will get it.

Winning the 2nd round of the presidential doesn't equal majority in the assembly and even more so for Le Pen and Melenchon. I just don't see mainstream left and right assembly go full for either of them.

I can see Mélenchon winning the presidential and LR winning the législatives. A lot of LR candidates will be well established local figures who wont be hated like Fillon is. Mélenchon will have to field lots of inexperienced candidates and will have a harder time controlling his message. At some point Mélenchon's spell with fade and the red scare will help the right. Mélenchon president and Sarkozy PM would be an entertaining way to ruin the country.

We have these people in the US as well, they are the Ron Paul fans who became Bernie Sanders fans.

I've seen polls which showing that a decent chunk of Le Pen voters are people who voted Communist 20 years ago. The common link seems to be populism/authoritarianism. Perhaps not surprising that some of these Le Pen voters are now migrating back to Mélanchon now that he is seen as a viable candidate.

Also, how many electoral shocks will it take for people to wake up? Some got caught sleeping by Brexit. Then some were still asleep for Trump. It's rage inducing to think that some French non-voters (or those voting for no hope candidates such as Hamon) might wake up in two weeks' time to see a Le Pen v Mélanchon 2nd round and actually be surprised and regretful.

Some Communists place nationalism near the top of their list of priorities as do some fascists, so for them it's not a huge leap from one doctrine to the other.

After thinking some about it I agree with that. I started with the "if voters are rationnal" which was a very dumb postulat. We are about to vote to the presidency a trotkist turned senator who's been around for ever thinking things are going to change.

the le pen vote seems pretty firm. it's more an issue of a huge share of the people that have voted for social democrats in europe the last 30 years were never really on board with the 3rd way/neoliberal ideas. the main difference is that unlike corbyn, melenchon might actually win.

lol at this cluster**** of an election


https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/853320077470576640

anyone but le pen honestly. there's a ny times article today about the fascist psychos she's surrounds herself with.

Read today that she aligns herself with actual nazis? Confirm/deny?

The far left in France was way behind Corbyn's share of the vote before the election.
The difference was that Melenchon got to speak directly to the nation without media interference. That will happen in the UK assuming Corbyn is still leader at the time of the next election when the debates happen.

Dream on. There's a limit to the number of times people can blame unpopularity on "the media".

Oh please. Without almost total control of the media here the Tories wouldn't win 10% of the vote. The only time they lost partial control of the media they got hammered in successive elections under Blair.
Most of the actual talking points here from UK right-wingers are arguments or exact phrases from Telegraph/Mail or other mainstream media.